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Here are 5 key questions to prep you for the coming days of the 2022 election season : NPR


People vote on Election Day at PS 11 Purvis J. Behan Elementary School on November 2, 2021 in the Clinton Hill neighborhood of Brooklyn in New York City.

Image of Michael M. Santiago / Getty


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Image of Michael M. Santiago / Getty


People vote on Election Day at PS 11 Purvis J. Behan Elementary School on November 2, 2021 in the Clinton Hill neighborhood of Brooklyn in New York City.

Image of Michael M. Santiago / Getty

Election day is almost here! Well, almost. Tens of millions of people voted, and the election is likely to last beyond Tuesday for days, if not weeks. Some races, especially in the Senate, are expected to be tighter and chamber control may not be known for a while.

Here are five questions to help you think about the next phase of election season.

1. Have things settled back into a typical midterm environment?

It seemed for a while – from the end of June after Dobbs reverse decision Roe until September – that Democrats can defy political gravity and not suffer the kinds of losses so typical to the president’s party during his first term. But over the past few weeks, more data has become available to suggest that things are going in the opposite direction of the Republican Party. Concerns about inflation and the economy continue to be a top concern for voters, and Democratic enthusiasm numbers are lagging behind GOP pillars. That said, the Democratic Senate candidates remain locked down neck and neck races with their GOP rivals. So no one really knows exactly what will happen to the Senate – and don’t trust anyone who seems to think they do.

2. How big is the Indoor GOP wave?

Republicans are very likely to take control of the House of Representatives – they just flip five seatsand after the redistricting, they were supported in seven seats (seats deemed likely or solid Republicans), according to Cook’s Political Report. Cook, trying to forecast these, increased their forecast from 10-20 seats to 12-25. The 2024 presidential election will be intense, and the Senate backdrop will be even more favorable for Republicans that year.

Of course, Democrats have an even better chance of winning the presidency back in 2024 (remember you can’t draw anything from midterms in terms of what it’s worth). may make sense for a president). But if a Republican do won the White House, the Democrats’ best hope of knocking out a potential GOP president’s agenda is likely to get through the House. So they need to keep those losses to a minimum in these all-important House races, in order to put an effort into making that happen. Much of this really depends on whether key Democratic groups show up to vote.

3. Can Democrats turn their base voters with Donald Trump not on the ballot?

There has never been a greater Democratic voting machine than Trump. Sure, Trump burned his base, but he also incited Democrats. Progressives and young voters were never thrilled with President Biden, but they voted for him to remove Trump from office. This is the first election after Trump, and while he play a prominent role in these elections and many candidates are running in the image of Trump, the enthusiasm of the Democratic grassroots electorate falls across the board – young voters, black voters, Latinos – with the exception of white women with college degree, who see abortion as their top voting issue.

Generation Z/Millennial voters also listed abortion rights as their top voting concern, according to the latest poll by NPR / PBS NewsHour / Maristand obviously Democratic activists are trying to use that to get them to the polls. But they are the group with the lowest interest in these elections. That’s not typical for a midterm election, but the gap between older voters and younger voters in the survey is extremely wide – 35 points. Democrats may need a young voter turnout around 30% to do well, but that will likely be difficult. Black voters will become key in tight races for the Senate, like Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, while Latinos will key in Nevada (as well as Asian-American voters) and Arizona. But each of the latter groups listed inflation and cost of living as their top concerns.

4. How important is the candidate?

It’s no secret that Republicans have brought into the Senate a number of…challenging candidates. Trump has promoted Herschel Walker in Georgia and Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, as well as JD Vance in Ohio and Ted Budd in North Carolina. And Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, so to speak, is not the strongest candidate the Republican Party can come up with. Oz and Walker’s race will be important because for Democrats to hold onto the Senate, they’ll need to win three out of four Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

It will be a real test of the power of partisan identification, which we know is quite powerful and, more importantly, the strength of the Trump brand in purple states. Given this environment, Democrats are only in these races because of the lagging performances of these Trump candidates. He continues to be unpopular with the majority of Americans, and if Democrats hold the Senate because the candidates in his image lose, there will be plenty of index fingers in Trump’s direction, even though he He will claim confidence regardless – and as those close to him are strongly suggesting that he will announce his candidacy for president immediately after the midterm.

5. How smooth will the voting be and what chaos will the candidates who refuse to vote bring to the table if they lose?

Again, think of this as Election Season, not Election Day. It is possible, if unlikely, that the race for the Georgia Senate, for example, goes to a race on December 6. There is a Liberal on the ballot, where a lot of the objections are yes. could go and keep the Democratic incumbent Walker or Raphael Warnock under 50%, which is needed to avoid the flow.

Had raised eyebrows About people with arms at polling places; voting and access rules have changed in so many places; and people are expected to vote by mail in greater numbers than any midterm in history. There will be a lot of confusion on election night about the number of votes, where they come from, how to shift in favor of one party or another in many states.

This is all to be expected and not nefarious, but you can expect that some, if not many, of the candidates who refuse to vote or run for office and continue to lie about Trump’s election will control the election. check everything and don’t admit the election they lost. How common that will be is anyone’s guess – but we’re clearly in a new era of highly uncertain US elections.

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