WASHINGTON – The astonishingly high Russian casualty rate in Ukraine means President Vladimir V. Putin may not achieve one of his key war goals: capturing the entire eastern region of the country. this year, officials in the Biden administration and military experts say.
According to the latest estimates of US military and intelligence officials, with 500 Russian soldiers killed or wounded every day, Russia’s War Effort Officials said the speed has been reduced to a honed slogan.
Russia’s glacial velocity in the east was further restrained by the arrival of US multiple launch rocket systemThis has allowed the Ukrainian military to regain some territory and made it harder for Russian troops to access other areas.
Earlier this summer, Russian forces captured Ukraine’s Luhansk region, the easternmost part of the country. But in neighboring Donetsk, their progress has stalled, in no small part because of heavy casualties, US military officials said.
Colin Kahl, Secretary of Defense for Policy, told reporters at the Pentagon on Monday, telling reporters at the Pentagon on Monday: “I think the Russians may have received 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months.
“They have made some incremental gains in the east, although not much in the last few weeks, but it has come at a heavy cost to the Russian military because of how well the Ukrainian army has performed and all of it. including the support of the Ukrainian military. received. “
Two US officials said Russian damage estimates included about 20,000 deaths. Among them, 5,000 are said to be mercenaries from Wagner’s groupa private force with ties to Putin, and foreign fighters, one of the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to discuss sensitive military assessments.
US officials said their casualty estimates were based on satellite imagery, communications, social media and terrestrial media reports.
The Russian government considers soldiers’ deaths a state secret, and the country’s war deaths are rarely mentioned on state television. The last time Russia released an official number was in March, when it said 1,351 Russian soldiers were killed in the fighting. At the time, American officials estimated that number was closer to 5,000.
Officials said Ukraine also suffered heavy casualties. The Ukrainian government has been reluctant to release figures but says 100 to 200 of its soldiers are killed every day.
Our Report on the Russo-Ukrainian War
Since Ukraine has been at war with Russian separatists for nearly a decade, it has a large pool of seasoned veterans ready to fight. However, US officials say the conflict has become the bloodiest land war in Europe since World War II.
But for Russia, the high number of casualties means slower progress. As a result, “conditions in the east have basically stabilized,” Kahl said, and Russia was forced to redeploy its forces to the south, as Ukraine intensified its campaign to retake territory there.
Mr. Putin has also upgraded his ranks with ex-soldiers. But the battlefield effectiveness of the incoming ships was “quite poor,” a senior defense official told reporters last month.
What we consider before using anonymous sources.
How do sources know the information? What is their motivation to tell us? Have they proven reliable in the past? Can we verify the information? Even if these questions are satisfied, The Times still uses anonymous sources as a last resort. Reporters and at least one editor know the source’s identity.
“The Russian military is severely depleted,” said Seth G. Jones, director of the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “That has implications for their ability to counter an effective ground operation in Ukraine.”
American and European officials say the Russian military has struggled to bring in reservists and recruits to join the fight.
Russia has committed nearly 85 percent of its field troops, drawing troops from the country’s far east and deploying them around the world, defense officials said. Before the invasion of Ukraine in February, the Russian military had about 900,000 active troops.
“The Russians may not have enough effective combat forces to completely capture Donetsk,” Mr. Jones said in an interview.
Moscow has also recruited Chechen troops and fighter jets from Syria, a country with which the president is allied with Putin. By relying on these fighters, officials say, Putin has avoided a wave of domestic outcry over casualties and so far the need to call a mobilization, like the one. a draft.
“They’ve raised the recruiting age in Russia and are doing other things to spice up the rice cooker,” said Evelyn Farkas, director of the McCain Institute and senior Pentagon official in charge of Ukraine during the Obama administration. volunteers. “They’re pulling people from all over.”
However, Ms Farkas added: “Unless they have a mass campaign, which I don’t see them being able to do at this point politically, they will be at a loss.”
After capturing Luhansk, Russia said it was pausing its operation in the east to regroup and rearm. But it continued to attack cities and towns in the area, and its troops continued to fight. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army launched an offensive in the towns of Donetsk, recapturing parts of the land there.
As fighting intensified in southern Ukraine, a series of explosions on Tuesday rocked a Russian air base in Crimea, a peninsula in the south. Russia illegally annexed in 2014. Satellite images show at least eight warplanes wrecked at the site of the explosion.
Ukraine has not officially confirmed responsibility for the explosions, but a senior Ukrainian military official said the country’s special forces and local partisan resistance fighters loyal to the government were behind. attack.
With Ukraine waging an offensive to regain territory in the south, officials say Putin may have to send more troops there.
According to General Philip M. Breedlove, the retired commander of NATO’s supreme ally for Europe, in some cases, the Russian military tried to force captured Ukrainians to fight.
“They have a big problem in terms of manpower and an even bigger problem is that the manpower they have is not properly trained,” General Breedlove said in an interview. “Their best units have been bled.”
Pentagon officials say that it is increasingly difficult for Russian units to pressurize as they maintain high casualty rates.
