Former President Donald Trump (left) and Vice President Kamal Harris
Reuters
Vice president Kamala Harris is ahead of the former President Donald Trump in the key battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, according to a new report New York Times/Siena College poll
The poll found Harris beating Trump 50% to 46% among likely voters in all three states, although those leads were within the poll’s margin of error. Likely voters are a small subset of the overall pool of registered voters surveyed.
The poll surveyed 619 registered voters in Michigan and 661 registered voters in Wisconsin from Monday to Thursday. The poll surveyed 693 registered voters in Pennsylvania from Tuesday to Friday.
The head-to-head results are a little different when looking at everyone who is registered to vote: Harris still leads by four points in Wisconsin, but is ahead by three points in Pennsylvania and actually trails Trump by three points in Michigan.
The Times/Siena poll is the most recent data point tracking the broader shift that has taken place since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July and has confirmed Harris to become the Democratic presidential nominee. While polls still show the candidates neck and neck, it’s clear that Harris has fundamentally changed the complexion of the race in just one month.
In the weeks since Biden left, Harris has made up for much of the lost Democratic votes and even surpassed Trump in some cases.
IN Maybeeven before the president Disastrous performance in June debateTimes/Siena polls show Biden tied with Trump in Wisconsin. Biden trails the Republican presidential nominee in both Michigan and Pennsylvania.
In a memo Saturday, the Trump campaign said the Times/Siena poll “significantly underestimated” Trump’s support among registered and likely voters.
“Once again, we see a series of public surveys released with the express purpose of undermining support for President Trump,” Republican pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Tim Saler wrote in the memo.
One result remains the same even as the Democrats shift: economy ranked as the top issue of concern to registered voters.
Recession fears came into full view last week after stocks plunged on Monday and struggled to recover gains in subsequent days. The market decline was partly due to a weaker-than-expected jobs report that raised concerns that the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut interest rates was putting too much pressure on the economy.
According to a Times/Siena poll, Trump leads Harris by nine points on how he handles the economy.
The Times/Siena polls also come as voters process the choice of Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, whom she selected Tuesday after an accelerated vetting process. Though Walz was little known nationally just two weeks ago, he has been thrust into the spotlight for his candid media interviews, affable demeanor and his shift to politics after a career as a high school teacher.
Despite Walz’s extremely progressive policy record, some Democrats see his rural Midwestern roots as an opportunity to broaden the Democratic coalition.
The Times/Siena poll found Walz had a 36 percent approval rating among registered voters, tied with Trump’s vice presidential nominee, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance. However, just 27 percent of respondents gave Walz an unfavorable rating, compared with 46 percent who supported Vance.
Along with her surge in polls, Harris has also received enthusiastic support in the form of record donations, new volunteer signups and crowds packing arenas since launching her presidential campaign.
With just 87 days until the election and even fewer days until early voting, the Harris campaign has been working to ensure that the initial hype translates into actual votes at the ballot box.
“We are the underdogs in this race, but we have momentum and I know exactly what we are facing,” Harris said at a rally attended by more than 12,000 people in Philadelphia on Wednesday.
