(Bloomberg) — Germany is expected to increase its dependence on coal as it faces an unprecedented energy crisis — even at the expense of ambitious climate goals. of this country.
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Europe’s largest economy is burning fossil fuels to generate electricity at the fastest rate in at least six years, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. It is also poised to become one of the few countries to increase coal imports next year.
Globally, highly polluting — and relatively cheap — coal is making a comeback as countries seek to prevent soaring energy costs from triggering an economic downturn. In Europe, the crisis intensified after Russia restricted natural gas supplies as a result of the war in Ukraine. Germany is currently trying to balance a short-term priority of strengthening energy security with a long-term goal of net zero emissions.
“Everybody is keeping their climate goals, but the truth is when you are faced with the dilemma of continuing to turn on,” said Carlos Fernandez Alvarez, acting director of gas and coal. lights or reduce carbon emissions, the choice is to keep the lights on. power at the International Energy Agency.
Germany plans to phase out coal use by 2038, but the governing coalition is pushing for an even earlier target by 2030. To weather the current crisis, the country has temporarily put a The number of coal plants that had stopped working returned to operation. In most countries, a limited amount of coal power capacity is returning to service. “Only in Germany, with 10 gigawatts, is the reversal of a significant scale,” the IEA said in a report.
According to Destatis, the federal statistics office, Germany now generates more than a third of its electricity from coal-fired power plants. The agency said that in the third quarter, electricity from coal-fired production was 13.3% higher than in the same period a year ago.
A spokesman for the German Economy Ministry said in a statement: “Ideally, coal should be phased out by 2030. “In the midst of the crisis, the most important thing is that it is clear that we have succeeded in reducing the consumption of coal. consume significantly less energy by 2022, especially natural gas.”
She said the interventions in Germany’s electricity market that led to an increase in emissions were time-constrained and that the country had accelerated the development of renewable energy.
Origin of revival
Germany’s coal resurgence has two main causes: expensive natural gas conversion fuels and increased electricity demand from France, where electricity production has stalled due to nuclear reactor shutdowns.
European gas prices spiked to record highs during the summer and remained around double the five-year average for this time of year. Earlier this year, companies including generators Steag GmbH restored coal capacity due to soaring gas prices. Volkswagen AG also shelved plans to phase out coal at its Wolfsburg facility in Germany.
While both gas and coal prices have fallen recently, burning dirtier fuels to generate electricity is still more profitable.
Guillaume Perret, head of energy consulting firm Perret Associates Ltd, said: “Coal is making a comeback as the primary source of load generation. because coal is still a lot of money compared to gas and there is still a shortage of gas.
It is possible that Germany’s emergency coal stations will be kept online for as far as December 2024, Perret added, nine months after the government’s planned shutdown date. He noted that the European Union and Turkey are the only major energy users worldwide that are expected to increase coal imports in 2023 compared to 2022.
According to Destatis, this year Germany is also likely to become a net exporter of electricity to France, the first time this has happened at a record level since at least 1990.
At times this month, German electricity has become as polluting as electricity produced in South Africa and India, after lower wind speeds curtailed renewables production and coal consumption skyrocketed. , according to Electrical Maps, an application that aggregates grid data.
The way forward
There are some bright spots for Europe that could help it avoid burning coal. Gas prices have fallen as mild weather previously pushed back the start of the heating season, and the region has seen record liquefied natural gas imports in recent times. Gas inventories remain above the seasonal average.
In addition, nuclear power in France has begun to work again. While some delays continue, reactor availability currently stands at around 68%, grid data shows. That compares with about 50% at the beginning of November. Germany also plans to keep the remaining three nuclear plants running until mid-April at the latest, after the initial shutdown date.
While Europe’s coal imports are likely to increase, exactly how much of that is actually burned to produce electricity is unpredictable, especially if hydroelectricity increases in the region. Germany also increased renewable energy production by 2.9% annually in the third quarter of this year, according to Destatis.
Fabian Hein, project director for EU policy at the Agora Energiewende think tank, said: “Accelerating deployment of renewable energy is key to achieving energy sovereignty by the middle of this decade and its goals. our 2030 climate goals”.
–With support from Carolynn Look, Olivia Fletcher, Brian E. Wall and Petra Sorge.
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