Georgia Runoff: What a Walker or Warnock Victory Would Look Like

Maybe because I was a debater in high school, but every few weeks I try to imagine what I would write the day after the election – if either side won.

It can be a lighting exercise. I did this every few weeks before the 2016 general election, and I’ve always been impressed by how easy it was to write a sensible post-election story explaining how and why Donald J. Trump would win the election. . This year, it is also quite easy to imagine how successful the Democratic Party will be. In every caseit helps to explain the end result in a simple way, even though each case seems less likely than not.

Today’s Georgia Flow is a very different case. The election seems to be as close – or even closer – as any other. But if Herschel Walker of the Republican Party wins, I don’t know how to explain it. I will have to shrug.

Of course, that doesn’t mean he can’t win. Suddenly happened. Sometimes, a team with a good record loses to a team that hasn’t won a game, even though there’s no good reason to expect it.

And in some ways, a “surprise” in the flow wouldn’t be particularly unusual. Polls show a tight race, with the incumbent Democrat, Raphael Warnock, leading. about three percentage points. Similarly, Mr. Walker is one percentage point worse in November 8 election resultsand historically, voters cast ballots at times more conservatively. By those measures, Mr. Walker won’t take long to win.

But it’s hard to come up with good reasons that Mr Walker will do better in the voting round than he did a month ago, even if on any given Tuesday any candidate has can win.

The core problem for Mr. Walker is simple: He is flawed and unpopular candidate, while Mr. Warnock, by contrast, is quite popular. And unlike in the November election, both are the only candidates on the ballot in most states. This poses a much bigger challenge to Mr. Walker in the second round than in the general election.

It’s easy to imagine some kind of voter who supported Mr Walker in November but won’t show up this time. There are Republicans who don’t like Mr. Walker, but vote for another Republican — like Brian Kemp in the gubernatorial race. There are Republicans who might be reluctant to vote for Mr Walker if the Senate steps in – as it looks like in November – but don’t think the stakes are high enough to support someone whom 57% of voters said no have power. moral values, according to Vote AP survey.

Worse for Mr. Walker, there is reason to assume these challenges have worsened since the November 8 election. Mr. Warnock has spent more than he does on television. Polls now show Mr Warnock doing even better than the pre-election polls in November.

Final voter turnout data from the November election also raises the possibility that Mr Walker will struggle to get a more favorable turnout than he did last month. Republican primary turnout has previously outstripped Democratic turnout, in no small part due to Black voter turnout. fell to the lowest level since 2006. Indeed, Republican candidates have won the most votes for the US House of Representatives and other offices across the state.

In other words, there is an argument that last month’s voters represented something of a best-case scenario for Mr. Walker in a high turnout election. He still doesn’t win. By contrast, early voting estimates raise the possibility of some significant gains for Mr Warnock if voters look a bit more like voters in recent cycles. By our estimates, the constituency is said to be consistent with a better score for the Democrats than in November.

Despite the limited early voting period, nearly two million Georgia voters cast their ballots ahead of today’s election. By our estimates, Mr. Warnock won these voters in November, 59-41, which could give him a nearly 400,000-vote lead.

Black voters accounted for 32% of early voting, up from 29% in November.

But it’s hard to read too much into the early voting numbers. The limited voting period of one week made it impossible to directly compare the results with the results of previous years. And there is no solid factual basis to assert that Mr. Walker cannot overcome his deficit on Election Day.

In fact, early voting and Election Day results are strongly correlated — in the opposite direction. The better a party does at early voting, the worse it does on Election Day. But no doubt, these numbers surpass any reasonable expectations Democrats might have. To the extent it provides any signal, that is good news for Mr. Warnock.

The race may be near, but it’s hard to think of a good sign for Mr.


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