François Bayrou commands respect – but will he succeed?

President Macron turned to a moderate and one of France’s most experienced politicians to extricate the country from the government crisis.

But if François Bayrou enjoys so much respect across the political spectrum, it is hard to see how he can avoid the same pitfalls that befell his predecessor Michel Barnier.

Appointed by the president according to the constitution, the prime minister can only act with the support of parliament.

And with Parliament paralyzed by a similar three-bloc deadlock since July – with no changes likely before July 2025 – it would be a reckless bettor to predict for Bayrou any What level of success?

Since Barnier’s fall a week ago – following a vote of no confidence backed by the populist left and right – Macron has consulted with a series of leaders in the hope of forming a coalition. new unofficial alliance to run the country.

Barnier is a traditional right-winger, Macron’s first instinct was to move to the traditional left – and initial efforts focused on weaning the Socialist Party (PS) away from its coalition with hard-left party France Unbowed (LFI).

However, because the PS’s condition was to adopt left-wing policies that Macron was unwilling to approve, he was forced to limit his search within his own circle.

Bayrou has been a close ally of the president since before Macron’s impressive first election victory in 2017. Indeed, Bayrou’s decision to stand aside as a candidate that year – and rally support for the young man – provided important momentum behind Macron’s election campaign.

A prominent figure on the political scene for more than 40 years, Bayrou – 73 years old – has run the Modem party, which currently has 36 deputies, since its founding in 2007. Before that, he was leader of the other centrist party.

His departure was in the postwar political tradition of the Chistian Democratic Party, which was generally supportive but kept its distance from the larger Gaullist element of the French right, led by Jacques Chirac from the late 1970s .

Bayrou, a classical languages ​​teacher in his 20s, served as education minister from 1993 to 1997. But that was his last meaningful experience of government.

Very briefly in 2017, he was Macron’s justice minister, but resigned after being accused in a party funding scandal.

He was eventually cleared of wrongdoing, but many of his colleagues were convicted. And prosecutors have appealed his acquittal, meaning he could still be sent back to court.

A devout Catholic with six children, Bayrou’s political base is in the Pyrenean city of Pau, where he has served as mayor since 2014. He speaks the local Bearnese language and is a strong believer in decentralization.

Bayrou ran for president three times as the head of the center. He came closest to winning in 2007, when he finished third with nearly 19% of the vote. He then angered future winner Nicolas Sarkozy by coming out in support of Socialist Party candidate Ségolène Royal.

When the only viable means of survival for a minority government is to build bridges to the left and right, Bayrou has the advantage of being on fairly good terms with both sides.

His support for Royal and then François Hollande in 2012 instilled some confidence among Socialists. But his views on debt – and the need to reduce it – have served him right.

Interestingly, his relationship with the populist right-wing Marine Le Pen is also highly respected. He previously helped her gather the funding needed to run for president, arguing that it would be an insult to democracy if the leader of the most popular party could not run.

Similar sentiments have led to support for Le Pen, as the prosecutor in her political party’s sponsorship trial (a case similar to his) recently asked that she be declared ineligible for public office.

This may mean that Bayrou can avoid automatic criticism from the populist right.

But Le Pen’s National Rally also warned that if the new prime minister is “Barnier with a different face” they will not hesitate to oust him.

According to veteran French political commentator Alain Duhamel, Bayrou is an independent-minded and experienced figure who – despite being an ally of Macron – will not hesitate to exert his power in Paris. Hotel Matignon, his official residence.

“He will not be easily disciplined,” Duhamel said. “And he will tilt policy more towards the left.”

The government crisis in France – most severe in the Fifth Republic – has led to a major shift of power, away from the Elysée and towards the prime minister and parliament.

“The last time we had a situation like this was in the (post-war) Fourth Republic, when presidents had very little power,” said constitutional expert Christophe Boutin.

“Today once again, power lies with groups in parliament who may or may not agree on certain common policies.”

Bayrou’s first task will be to form a new government, which could take days. This composition will be an indication of whether he can build a bridge between the Socialists on one side and Barnier’s conservatives on the other.

But very soon, he will have to draw up a new budget for 2025 to replace the one abandoned by the Barnier government; and he would immediately face possible rebellions from left and right.

The idea of ​​some parliamentarians for a kind of non-aggression pact – in which the government promises not to pass laws without a vote and parliamentarians promise not to vote for criticism – has been supported by Macron, he said. also said he didn’t want to. Dissolve the National Assembly again before the end of its term in 2027.

But critics say such a deal would be a license to stagnate, leaving little room for agreement on important issues such as reducing the country’s growing debt.