ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine — Last month, a text message was secretly sent to friends from 10 Ukrainians detained in Russian-occupied territory. The men, among hundreds of other civilian prisoners who have been missing in the weeks since Russian troops withdrew from the city of Kherson, said they were still alive but in dire need of help.
Andriy, a former prisoner and friend of several inmates, said: “They asked us to contact their relatives and tell the media that they were alive. “They are being tortured and detained without any legal basis.”
The withdrawal of Russian forces from all territories in eastern and southern Ukraine last fall raised hopes for many Ukrainians that their detained loved ones would be released and Its forces will build on that momentum and rapidly recapture more territory in the region.
But the Russian retreat proved so orderly that even prisoners were evacuated, and the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south was largely halted by fierce fighting concentrated on the eastern front.
However, for families living in the occupied areas, or those with loved ones detained there, a further Ukrainian counterattack is unlikely to come anytime soon, even if it brings many more risky.
Several people interviewed at a border crossing near the city of Zaporizhzhia – the only gateway for civilians to cross from Russian-controlled southern Ukraine into Ukrainian-controlled territory – said they were fleeing insurgencies. Heavy bombardment but hope Ukraine will win quickly. The families of those held by the Russians feared for their safety and despaired of their rescue.
Ukrainians who arrived at a registration center in mud-covered cars last month described the increasingly desperate situation in the occupied areas, with frequent shelling, loud explosions in at night due to Ukraine’s long-range attacks, and life in the war scene with power outages and lack of medical equipment. medicine.
“It is impossible to live there,” said Lyubov, 81, who was waiting at the registration center in Zaporizhzhia with her daughter to be transported to the capital Kyiv. She said her apartment in the city of Mariupol had been demolished and there was little healthcare available.
One family came from Nova Kakhovka, a town on the east bank of the Dnipro River, north of Kherson, which they said was half destroyed by artillery fire from both sides. “It flew over our heads,” said Oleh, 60.
There is little doubt that the Ukrainian military wants to push deeper into Russian-held territory to the south and towards Crimea if possible, and pressure is mounting to initiate such an offensive.
Military analysts generally agree that while Ukraine holds its current defensive position, a new offensive southward to cut off Russia’s supply and communications routes to Crimea is the target. the country’s next major strategy.
“I always say that Zaporizhzhia is the most strategic direction. Colonel Roman Kostenko, a member of Ukraine’s parliament and former commander of Ukraine’s special operations force, Alpha, said it was the direction of Zaporizhzhia that could turn the tide of the war.
An offensive south from Zaporizhzhia towards the Russian-controlled cities of Melitopol and Berdyansk, he said, would divide Russian forces and weaken their control in Crimea. But he warned that he did not expect any progress until the spring, and even then only when Ukraine receives additional support from the West in tanks, armored fighting vehicles and modern guns. some of which are currently promising.
General Ben Hodges, a former commander of the US Army in Europe, said that Ukraine’s attacks on Melitopol, a logistics hub, and on the Kerch Strait bridge connecting Crimea to mainland Russia have exposed vulnerabilities. of Russia in Crimea.
“If two main lines of communication have been damaged or possibly disrupted, Crimea starts to look more and more like a trap,” General Hodges said in a recent interview on Twitter Spaces with Report Mriyaa popular pro-Ukrainian open source forum.
But both military analysts warn that an offensive south will be much more difficult than counterattacks this fall in the northeast and south. And residents traveling out of the area say the number of Russian troops in southern Ukraine has increased dramatically in recent weeks with the arrival of troops retreating from western Kherson along with others arriving. from mainland Russia. Russian forces have built defensive positions deeper from the front lines in recent weeks, Ukrainian and American officials said.
For ordinary Ukrainians, the journey out is also difficult, hampered by lengthy delays and security checks at Russian checkpoints. A bridge near the intersection was destroyed in the fighting, forcing volunteers from the local fire department to drag cars through deep mud along an alternative route.
Lyudmila, 49, and a friend took two days to escape the occupied Kherson region, where they visited her parents, she said. Her parents wanted to leave but couldn’t get through the difficult journey, she said.
The two women spent a night in the city of Melitopol, where they heard Ukrainian air strikes landed nearby. “It was noisy; it was close, she said.
Some residents say the Russian military is digging new fortifications, erecting concrete barriers and laying mines, but there are also signs that they are not confident in their situation.
“I got the impression that they didn’t know what they were doing,” said Lyuba, 69, a retired businesswoman, of the Russian soldiers. “Perhaps because I rarely see them awake, I can’t talk to them.”
She said a school where Russian soldiers were stationed near her home in the Kherson region was hit by artillery fire, killing several people. And when she reprimanded a Ukrainian acquaintance for befriending a group of Russian soldiers, he told her that the soldiers had said they wanted to surrender to the Ukrainian army when the troops arrived in town.
The families of two of the detainees who spread their messages spoke to The New York Times to call for action to save their loved ones. The Russians may have brought in detainees to use as human shields or hostages in exchange, they said.
Viktoriya Nesterenko, 53, whose son, Vitaliy Cherkashyn, is one of 10 detained, said: “I couldn’t think or feel anything because it was so messy.
She said the men are being held in the town of Novotroitske in the Russian-controlled Kherson region. She worries about Ukrainian artillery attacks, especially when she heard there was an attack on the town where they were being held.
“I just hope they’re in some kind of cell in the basement.”
She calls for the inclusion of these men in prisoner exchanges, but complains that the Ukrainian government is focused solely on the release of prisoners of war and has little regard for the plight of civilians.
“I don’t know what to do but we must not be silent,” she said.
Anna Trubych, 24, her boyfriend Vladyslav Andryushchenko, 27, one of 10 detained, said: “I really hope they will have to withdraw. With the message she received a photo. “He has changed a lot,” she said. “I was socked.”
Oleksandr Chubko and Kateryna Lachina contributed reporting.
