Fedspeak: Powell in Sweden for central bank independence symposium
Things are getting tense as traders look to gauge the Federal Reserve’s thinking going into 2023. Chairman Jay Powell will participate Tuesday in the International Symposium on Toxicology. The establishment of the Central Bank is held by Sveriges Riksbank, in Stockholm, Sweden. While the event, which will kick off at 9 a.m. ET, may not include any updates on the state of U.S. monetary policy, markets will still pay attention to his every word.
Snapshots: Powell’s speech follows a solid jobs report for the US economy. Wage growth is picking up, but cooling enough to ease inflationary pressures, while employers are still hiring – at a rate of 223,000 in December – but slowing relative to the year’s unsustainable figures. last. The unemployment rate was also at 3.5%, marking its lowest level in decades.
Many expect the data to suggest a soft landing is still possible, especially when other economic numbers are taken into account. The Consumer Price Index will be released on Thursday and is forecast for the sixth straight month of falling inflation (at a pace of 6.5 percent). According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in a 77.2% chance that the FOMC will only raise its prime lending rate by 25 bps by the end of January, further slowing its pace.
Opinion: Earnings season also kicks off this week, with results and guidance that help determine the state of the U.S. economy. A special thank you to everyone who participated Wall Street Breakfast“Second survey.” The poll split fairly evenly among the nearly 500 participants, with 56% believing S&P 500 companies will report their first quarterly loss since 2020, compared with 44% expecting fourth-quarter earnings growth. .