British farmers have warned that the country’s hot, dry conditions will inevitably lead to less harvest this year.
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In a typical year, Rodger Hobson can produce around 35,000 tonnes of carrots on his 880-acre farm in Yorkshire, northern England. But 2022 is still an example.
As one extreme heat wave and next drought devastated the agricultural cycles of Europe, large swathes of Hobson’s crops blackened and died. He now predicts yields will fall 30% this year.
“I’ve been farming crops for 30 years and this is also the worst drought I’ve ever seen,” Hobson told CNBC.
A dry spell four years earlier – then dubbed the worst in a generation – was relatively bad, he said. Only this time the record temperature was 5 ° C above the high of 2018 is making matters worse.
“We consider 2018 to be a once-in-a-lifetime drought, but here we are again,” he said.
The hot, dry conditions are the latest development in a challenging assault on farmers and their crops this year, with market analysts warning that less harvest could lead to grocery prices. higher urbanization and potential food shortages.
Prolonged hot summer in England destroys food crops
England Officially entered the state of drought across much of southern, central and eastern England – and later Yorkshire – earlier this month.
It follows the country driest July since 1935in which temperatures hit 40.3 degrees Celsius (104.5 degrees Fahrenheit), exacerbating problems for a sector already feeling the heat from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rising fertilizer prices and worker shortage.
Drought presents a higher risk of crop failure, with reduced water supplies making it harder for farmers to irrigate fruit and vegetable crops and a tendency towards the soil on which other grains are grown.
“There’s no sign of rain coming our way,” Hobson said. As of the third week of August, Yorkshire has received 6mm of rain, well below the 70mm average for the month.
A carrot, it just likes the British climate… Anything above 30 degrees, they shrivel and die.
Rodger Hobson
President, British Carrot Growers Association
Britain is not used to such extreme weather conditions, with much of its production – mainly large open field – depends on the temperate, marine climate of the country.
That is worrying farmers like Hobson, chairman of the British Carrot Growers Association, whose farm produces around 4% of the UK’s carrot production and supplies many food retailers. domestic.
“A carrot, it just likes the British climate. It’s happy in temperatures between 18 and 22 degrees . [Celsius]; much rainfall. Basically, the archetypal English summer,” said Hobson. Anything above 30 degrees, they will shrink and die. And that’s what we saw. “
July was the driest summer in Britain since 1935, with major impacts on farmers and food prices.
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Such conditions are having powerful effects far beyond the humble orange vegetable. Follow report from the UK Environment Agency. About half of this summer’s potato crop will fail.
Alice Witchalls, an analyst with market research firm Mintec, said smaller harvests would likely lead to higher prices for supermarket consumers.
Witchalls told CNBC: “The key growing period for potatoes is August, and that season is very water dependent. We can expect yields to decline, with some growers reporting declines as much as up to 20 percent. 40% for potatoes. That could affect the price.” .
Spokesperson for Tescoone of the UK’s leading supermarkets, said it has yet to experience availability issues across its fruit and vegetable lines, but it is working with growers to “understand the impact of warm weather”. pressure.”
Europe’s worst drought in 500 years
In other cases, Europe can be relied upon to address agricultural shortages. But the continent has also been hit by an unrelentingly hot and dry summer that has unleashed wildfires and drought across vast swaths of land.
The European Commission said last week that Europe is now seeing its worst drought in 500 years, with 47% of the area is in “alert” status. It added that conditions were increasing in 15 countries, including Germany, France and Britain, with drought expected to last at least into November along the Mediterranean.
If livestock and pastures suffer because of the weather… it will affect livestock and reduce production.
Paul Hughes
Chief Agricultural Economist, S&P Global Commodity Insights
Harvest forecast of the European Union currently 16% for cereal corn, 15% for soybean and 12% for sunflower compared to the average for the previous 5 years.
Agricultural economists say that has an impact not only on food production but also on dairy and livestock farmers, who rely on these commodities to feed their livestock.
“If animals and grasslands are affected by the weather, it will affect animals and grasslands,” said Paul Hughes, chief agricultural economist and research director, agribusiness at S&P Global Commodity Insights. reduce the yield of milk, butter, milk”.
Important mission for dairy farmers and dairy farmers
Karl Franklin, a sheep farmer based in Oxfordshire, southeastern England, said the situation was now becoming dire.
It will soon be time to drain his about 90 ewes – a process that increases a flock’s nutrient intake before spawning – but a lack of grass can lead to a depleted lamb season.
“If the sheep weren’t drained well enough, I could go down to 120%, which means fewer lambs,” Franklin told CNBC. The usual breeding rate of ewes is 180% to 200%, which means about two lambs for each ewe.
Dairy and livestock farmers have warned about the negative effects of extreme weather on their livestock.
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Agricultural industry bodies are now calling for more support for farmers, especially as it relates to how governments manage extreme weather conditions and national food security.
Tom Bradshaw, vice president of the UK’s National Farmers’ Association, said.
“It underscores the urgent need to ensure our food security and for governments and their agencies to better plan and manage the nation’s water resources; prioritizing water for food production along with environmental protection”.
‘The next few weeks will be crucial’
Climate scientists have warned for years that such heatwaves and droughts will become more common as a result of climate change.
The planet has warmed by about 1.1 degrees Celsius since the Industrial Revolution, and leading scientists have concluded that the current heatwave will be “almost impossible” no human-caused climate change.
That leaves some farmers pondering the long-term prospects of their business and the broader industry.
If there is a lot of rain, it can boost production.
Alice Witchalls
Market Analyst
“Growing vegetables has become much less attractive,” says Hobson. “It makes us all rethink what we do.”
As for the upcoming harvest, analysts say the next few weeks will be critical for the food supply chain and, ultimately, prices. Wet weather can help restore certain crops and allow more to be planted next year.
“For the fruit and vegetable industry, the next few weeks will be crucial. If the rainfall is heavy, it could boost production,” Mintec’s Witchalls said.
For many, it will be an agonizing wait.
“That’s what’s in store for the next few months that we’ll be watching closely,” Franklin said.
