Europe waits to see if Russia restarts gas shipments through key pipeline.

Europeans await news early Thursday on whether Russian energy giant Gazprom will resume the flow of natural gas through a key pipeline that normally supplies more than a third of demand. Germany as well as essential gas supplies to some of its European partners.

The pipeline, Nord Stream 1, has been offline since July 11 for previously scheduled annual maintenance. It will be back up and running on Thursday, but after weeks of back and forth between Russia and Europe, European Union officials are concerned that the pipeline will remain idle for longer, as punishment for the backlash. Moscow’s response to the invasion of Ukraine. .

The suspense is another reminder of Germany’s, and much of Europe’s, dependence on Russian energy, a relationship that has become haunting as officials say Moscow is capitalizing on its oil and gas. themselves to influence decision making.

Gazprom reduced pipeline flows by 60% starting mid-June, leading Berlin declares ‘gas crisis’ and take steps to encourage fuel conservation. The Russians blamed the reduced dial output on not having a turbine from one of the six compressors to maintain the pressure needed to bring the gas along 1,222 kilometers or 760 miles of the pipeline.

The turbine was sent to Canada for refurbishment, where it is manufactured by a company now owned by the German company Siemens Energy. But Canadian sanctions aimed at punishing Russia for its invasion of Ukraine have prevented their return.

Earlier this month, after lobbying by the German government, Canadian officials agreed granting a “revocable and term license” to Siemens Energy to allow the turbine to return to Germany; From there, officials in Berlin said it would be sent to Russia.

European Union leaders say they anticipate Russia will not restart gas flows. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “We have to prepare for a potential complete disruption of Russian gas and this is a possible scenario.

But this week, Russia gave its strongest signal that it will resume gas lines after a maintenance period, albeit in limited quantities. Speaking to reporters late Tuesday at Tehran after meeting with leaders of Iran and TurkeyRussian President Vladimir V. Putin warned that there are more turbines in need of repair, and with others going offline, Gazprom will only send “half the expected volume” through the Nord Stream pipeline.

German and European officials have rejected Gazprom’s argument that the bends are turbine-related, forcing the Russian side to seek to harm Western economies by cutting access to natural gas. course. Natural gas prices in Europe have more than quadrupled compared to the same time last year.

The European Union’s executive body says Europe must cut its natural gas use dramatically – by a total of 15 per cent between now and spring – to avert a major crisis as Russia cuts reduce gas exports, the European Union’s executive body said on Wednesday, calling on citizens to sacrifice the hardships of the world’s richest nations.

“Russia is blackmailing us,” Ms. von der Leyen said as she introduced the EU’s plan to reduce gas consumption. “Russia is using energy as a weapon.”

Maintaining a reduced natural gas flow could benefit the Russian leader, helping him keep Europeans in a state of protracted unrest and near panic, analysts say. Russia has stopped supplying gas through other major pipelines to Europe that pass through Poland and Ukraine.

But other analysts say the war for turbines is a Russian attempt to ensure the pipeline is maintained, despite sanctions.

Katja Yafimava, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Research.