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Economic slowdown may force workers into ‘lower quality’ jobs — Global Issues


According to the International Labor Organization (ILO), Global employment is set to grow by just one percent in 2023, less than half of last year’s level.

The number of unemployed people worldwide is also expected to increase slightly to 208 million.

This corresponds to a global unemployment rate of 5.8% – or 16 million people – as reported by the ILO. World Employment and Social Outlook Trends Report.

Lower wages, fewer hours

The UN report warns that the current economic downturn “means many workers will have to accept lower quality work, often with very low wages, sometimes with insufficient hours“.

This is likely already happening in Europe and other developed countries, given the war in Ukraine and the continued disruption of global supply chains, both of which are countering the aggressive stimulus packages being implemented. to overcome the pandemic. COVID-19 crisis.

“Real wages that we expect for 2022 will have 2.2% decrease in advanced countries and of course Europe accounts for a significant proportion of advanced countries, compared with real wage growth in developing countries,” said Richard Samans, Director of the ILO Research Department.

The informal economy is in decline

An equally worrying development is the possibility that efforts to help the world will be disrupted. two billion informal workers join the formal employment sector to enjoy social protection and training opportunities.

“Although from 2004 to 2019, we observed a 5 percentage point decrease in the global informality rate, but It is very likely that this process will be reversed in the coming years,” said Manuela Tomei, ILO Assistant Director-General for Governance, Rights and Dialogue.

This is due to the job recovery process “especially in developing countries, which favor informal jobs,” Ms. Tomei told journalists in Geneva.

A man works in a factory in Dar Es Saalam.

© ILO/Marcel Crozet

A man works in a factory in Dar Es Saalam.

SDG on Poverty under threat

The ILO report warns that as prices rise faster than wages, the cost-of-living crisis threatens to push more people into poverty. This trend stems from the significant drop in income seen during the COVID-19 crisis, which has hit low-income groups most, in many countries.

Some 214 million working people live in extreme poverty today, “in other words $1.90 a day,” explained Ms. Tomei. The ILO official said that although the past decades had seen significant progress in poverty reduction, “many gains” had been wiped out due to the impact of the coronavirus and the economic crisis. economy is taking place.

“So it is quite unlikely that by 2030, the ambitious goal of eradicating poverty in all its forms will be achieved.”

The report also calculates the size of global employment gap is 473 million by 2022.

This number is about 33 million more than in 2019, and it is defined as a measure of the number of unemployed people, including those who want a job but are not actively looking for work, either because they are discouraged or because they are unemployed. have other obligations such as caregiving responsibilities.

Women are ignored

Ms. Tomei of the ILO explains: From a gender perspective, the development of inequality in the global job market continues to be a matter of concern.

“Serious Gender gaps in labor force participation, wages, and social protection continue to exist…There are 290 million young people out of work, without school or training, and young women in a much worse situation.”

A woman works in a factory in Albania.

© ILO/Marcel Crozet

A woman works in a factory in Albania.

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