Draghi’s Fall Reverberates Beyond Italy

ROME – Just over a month ago, Prime Minister Mario Draghi of Italy boarded an overnight train with the leaders of France and Germany to Kyiv. During the 10-hour trip, they joke about how the president of France has the nicest place to stay. More importantly, however, they affirm their resolute support for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. The image of men sitting in a cabin around a wooden conference table evokes a club-style crisis management reminiscent of World War II.

Draghi’s sitting at that table reflects how, with the power of his stature and prestige, he has transformed his country – a nation burdened by debt and persistent political instability. persistent – becoming equal partners with Europe’s most important powers. Crucial to that success was not only his economic prowess as former president of the European Central Bank but also his uncompromising recognition that Russia’s war was a challenge. exist for Europe and its values.

All of that has now been put in jeopardy since a populist uprising from many sides, fueled by an astonishingly opportunistic power struggle. Draghi .’s government torpedo this week. Snap election has been called in September, with polls showing a coalition dominated by far-right nationalists and populists in great favor to run Italy in the fall.

Draghi’s downfall led to the overthrow of the establishment that populist forces across Europe dreamed of. It has now raised concerns, far ahead of Italy, in terms of the resilience of movements retained on the continent, and in terms of the damage an Italian government more sympathetic to Russia and less committed to the European Union could do to Western cohesion as it faces perhaps the greatest combination of security and economic challenges since the Cold War.

Gianfranco Pasquino, emeritus professor of political science at the University of Bologna, said: “The departure of Draghi is a real problem for Europe, a hard blow. “Draghi has a clear stance against Russian aggression in Ukraine. Europe will lose because the next prime minister will almost certainly be less convinced that the responsibility for the war lies with Russia.”

If there is any question of where the sympathy of European leaders lies in the Italian power struggle, before his fall, Mr. Draghi had the backing of the White House, President Emmanuel Macron of France, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and others.

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez of Spain Written “Europe needs leaders like Mario.” When Mr Draghi made his final appeal of hearty Italian feasts to stick with him on Wednesday, Prime Minister Antonio Costa of Portugal has written to him to thank him for reconsidering his resignation, according to a person close to Draghi.

But now, with Mr Macron lamenting the loss of a “great Italian statesman”, anxiety has spread across the continent about what will happen next. come next.

Mr. Draghi’s rebalancing of Italy’s position with respect to Russia is all the more remarkable considering where it started. Italy has the strongest relationship in Western Europe with Russia. During the Cold War, it was the headquarters of the largest Communist Party in the West, and Italy depended on more than 40% of Russian gas.

Mr. Draghi made it his mission to break that mold. He capitalized on his strong relationship with the United States Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, to lead the sanctions against the Central Bank of Russia.

Using the example of his public speeches, he pressured his allies, including Mr. Macron, to agree that Ukraine should eventually become a member of the European Union.

In the days leading up to a serious vote in the Senate that failed his government, Mr. Draghi visited Algeria to announce a gas deal that country would replaced Russia as Italy’s largest gas supplier.

Those achievements are now in jeopardy after what began last week as an uprising in his coalition by the Five Star Movement, an ailing anti-establishment party that ended in a takeover of power by conservatives, far-right populists and nationalists who sensed a clearly opportunistic election, and killed.

They abandoned Mr. Draghi in a confidence vote. The current, If Italian voters don’t punish them for ending a government seen as the most capable and authoritative in the country for many years, they could come out on top in the elections.

The coalition’s maneuvers did not appear to have been spontaneous.

Before the vote, Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right League party, gathered with former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi for a long sweaty lunch at the tycoon’s mansion on Appian Road and discussed what to do.

Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brotherhood of Italy, a party with post-fascist roots who has relentlessly called for elections from the opposition, said she had spoken to Mr Berlusconi a few days earlier and that he had also spoken to Mr. invited her to the meeting. , but she denied, saying they’d better meet after the vote. She said she spoke on the phone with Mr Salvini only after Mr Draghi’s speech in parliament.

“I don’t want them to be forced to do what they did,” she said, referring to Mr Salvini and Mr Berlusconi, who abandoned Mr Draghi and brought down the government. “I know it will only work if they are sure about leaving that government.”

Each has something to gain in their alliance. Mr. Salvini, the hard-right far-right leader of the League party who was not long ago the country’s most popular politician, has seen his status erode as part of Mr. Draghi’s government. , while Ms. Meloni received angry support from the opposition, replacing him now as a rising Italian political star. Mr. Berlusconi, an almost 85-year-old politician, is useful and necessary to both, but could also use their relationship to get back into power.

Together, polls show, they have the support of more than 45 percent of voters.

That is unsettling for many critics of Russia. Mr. Salvini wearing a shirt with Putin’s face on them in Red Square in Moscow and in European ParliamentHis party signed a partnership agreement with Putin’s United Russia party in 2017.

Ms. Meloni, in what some analysts see as a cunning move to distinguish herself from Mr. Salvini and make herself a more acceptable candidate for prime minister, has emerged as a supporter. powerful household Ukraine.

Mr. Berlusconi used to welcoming Putin’s daughters at his Sardinia villa and is Putin’s closest ally in Western Europe. But now, some of Mr. Berlusconi’s longtime supporters say, he has forgotten his European values ​​and surpassed Rubicon to become a nationalist. and pro-Putin factions.

Renato Brunetta, Italian Minister of Public Administration and a longtime member of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, quit the party after the organization joined with the populist League party to withdraw support from Mr. Draghi. and destroy the government.

He said he left because Mr Berlusconi’s decision to quit the government is irresponsible and contrary to the party’s values ​​of the past 30 years. Asked if he believed Mr Berlusconi, who was sometimes a little shaken, was really smart enough to make decisions, he said “if that was the case, it would be even more serious”.

Italy, long a laboratory for European politics, is also an incubator for the continent’s populism and turning far-right movements into mainstream force.

When Berlusconi entered politics, largely to protect his business interests, in the 1990s, he identified himself as a pro-business and moderate, conservative. But to assemble a winning coalition, he brought the Coalition and a post-fascist party to Mrs. Meloni.

Now the situation has reversed. Ms. Meloni and Mr. Salvini need Mr. Berlusconi’s small electoral support to win the election and form a government. They are in charge.

“It’s a coalition of the right, because it’s no longer the center-right,” Mr Brunetta said. “It’s a far-right alliance with sovereign, extremist and Putin-phile leanings.”

Supporters of Mr Draghi have little consolation that he will stay in limited managerial capacity until the next government comes into play, with control over pandemic-related, international affairs. – including Ukraine policy – and billions of euros in recovery funds from Europe. That money is transferred in installments and strict requirements must be met before the funds can be released.

Draghi’s supporters admit that new overhauls to big issues like pensions are now out of the question, but they argue that the recovery funds are more or less safe since there is no government, not even a far-right populist government, will walk away. from all that money, and so would follow Mr. Draghi’s vision of modernization financed by those euros.

But if the past week has shown anything, it is that political calculations sometimes outweigh national interests.

The government’s achievements have been “at risk” in the coming months because of Draghi’s limited powers, Mr Brunetta said, but if the nationalist front wins, he said, “it’s obviously going to get worse. worse.”

Mr Brunetta said Mr Draghi came to politics in the first place because there was a “crisis of traditional parties” in Italy. He said 17 months in power and public support, indicating that there is “a constituency in Draghian,” wants moderate, pragmatic and values-based governance.

The problem, he said, is that “there is no political party, or especially coalition, to represent them” and he hopes one can be born before the election but “there is very little time left”. .

And in the meantime, he said, some things are certain. Italy has lost influence in Europe and the continent will also be affected by the loss of Mr. Draghi.

“Europe,” he said. “Weakened.”

Gaia Pianigiani contribution report.