Gold will rise to 3,000 USD/ounce by the end of next year? Will the forecast for a recession in the first half of 2023 and a recovery in the second half of 2023 be turned upside down? Will oil prices unexpectedly increase in the second half of the year?
Those should be all big surprises, right?
But shouldn’t we be used to surprises now? Shouldn’t we even prepare for them? Indeed, as we say goodbye to 2022, one thing is clear: It’s a year of “endless surprises”.
So write real money Doug Kass, famous person hedge fund Managers for decades have been writing annual “Surprises” lists for Daily diaries above Professional real money.
2023 was suddenly revealed
For those willing to hear another point of view — anti-group thinking — Kass has plenty of bets on what could happen in the next 12 months, including Elon Musk saving Twitter at the expense of Tesla. (TSLA) – Get a free reportan Apple shock (AAPL) – Get a free report merger, a big drop in Bitcoin (~BTCUSD) value and predicted jumps in gold and oil.
“It is the broad accuracy of my generally optimistic Surprises in 2022 that supports the very reason why I do this exercise every year—because the view of Surprises is mostly negative. mine will save traders and investors a lot of money and, on the other hand, apply the concept of some My Surprises in one’s portfolio that can help traders translators and investors make a lot of money,” Kass wrote in his more than 4,000 words Contest “Surprise”. “The purpose of my Annual List is to get readers to think more deeply about a variety of issues.”
It all started 21 years ago, when Kass prepared a list of possible surprises for the coming year, taking a page out of the notebook of his friend and former chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley, Byron Vienna. Kass spent about a month on this list, shrinking it from about 40 surprises, usually 15, but this year down to 10, with 5 people “running away too”.
Accuracy of last year’s list
How right was Kass in his outlier view for 2022? Four of his five key predictions proved correct, such as his bet that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell would step down. Eagle but there is some luck in limiting price increases for the year (any active investor who does grocery shopping can attest to that) or that after the early 2022 bull run to levels new high, the stock market will reverse (suffice it to say).
Kass also wrote in December 2021 that in the following year, Amazon’s (AMZN) – Get a free report Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk will set records for the largest personal wealth loss in a year, that value stocks will outperform growth stocks and China’s economy will deteriorate further than expected. low expectations at that time.
Of course, Kass had some predictions, especially political ones, that didn’t work out.
But, as Kass notes, the real purpose of his book “The Surprises” – although difficult to read – is a practical one, to “consider positioning part of your portfolio” I follow exceptional events, with the potential for huge profits. about small bets/investments.”
Kass also reminds readers that his “Surprises” are not forecasts, but potential events that are 50% more likely to happen–but are considered profound outliers. sharper with a probability of only 25% or less than consensus expectations. “In other words,” Kass wrote, “My surprise was against the ‘Smell Group’.”
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