MADRID, January 12 (IPS) – The picture is bleak: hunger in the Arab region continues to grow, with an increase of more than 90% since 2000, while debt is growing, and economic recovery was difficult and uneven.
The 2021 Near East and North Africa Region Overview on Food Security and Nutrition shows that the number of hungry people in the region will reach 69 million by 2020, “caused by protracted crises, social unrest and the face of many shocks and stresses such as conflict, poverty, inequality, equality, climate change, scarcity of natural resources and economic consequences related to the recent COVID-19 pandemic.”
According to the report, almost a third of the population of the Arab region, – or 141 million people – experienced “moderate or severe food insecurity” in 2020, an increase of more than 10 million people. Compared with the last year.
The Arab region includes: Algeria; Bahrain; the Comorians; Djibouti; Egypt; Iraq; Jordan; Kuwait; Lebanon; Libya; Mauritania; Morocco; Oman; Qatar; Saudi Arabic; Soman; Sudan; Syria; Tunisia; United Arab Emirates; Yemen, as well as Palestine. Their total population is nearly 450 million people.
Only four of the major Arab oil producers (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait), enjoy an income level that allows them to weather the growing hunger crisis. severe in the region.
Another 18 Arab countries – some of them also oil and gas producers, such as Algeria, Iraq and Libya – are facing “insecurity about health, food and nutrition.”
Sharp contrast
For example, in the case of Yemen, with its 30 million inhabitants, its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is as low as 19 billion US dollars, compared to the United Arab Emirates (10 million inhabitants), given its GDP. up to 100 billion US dollars. dollars, more than five times that of Yemen with only a third of the population.
Another example is the case of Saudi Arabia (33 million inhabitants), with its GDP reaching 700 billion US dollars, compared with Egypt (102 million inhabitants), which has three times the population of Saudi Arabia, but with only a third of its GDP is less than half of it: up to $280 billion.
Conflict causes famine for 53 million people
Mr. Abdulhakim Elwaer, FAO Assistant, said conflict continues to be one of the leading causes of hunger in the region, with around 53.4 million people facing hunger in countries and regions. affected by conflict, six times higher than in countries without conflict. General Manager and Regional Representative for the Near East and North Africa.
“The situation may not see a definite improvement this year as key Hunger drivers will continue to drag the situation down the road.”
Nutritional lack of nutrition; too nutritious
According to the report, by 2020, 20.5% of children under the age of 5 will be living with undernutrition and overnutrition, a double burden that many families, communities and countries in the world, according to the report. the Arab region suffered. Children under 5 years of age with stunting and underweight malnutrition will be 7.8% in 2020.
“Child overweight remains a high public health problem in the region, exceeding the global average of 5.7% and reaching 10.7% in the region,” added Elwaer.
Child malnutrition; obese adults
According to the FAO Regional Representative for the Near East and North Africa, the Arab Region is grappling not only with malnutrition in children but also with obesity in adults.
The prevalence of adult obesity has been steadily increasing in the region since 2000, reaching 28.8% in 2020, more than double the global average of 13.1% and regional rankings. This region has the third highest obesity rate in the world, after North America with 36.7% and Australia and New Zealand with 30.7%.
Economic recovery is uneven
Meanwhile, the World Bank research reported that nearly two years after the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic recovery in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has been difficult and uneven. “The performance of each of the 20 economies in the region depends on an individual’s exposure to oil price fluctuations and how well the pandemic is managed. Therefore, the forecast for the region’s average GDP growth rate of 2.8% in 2021 and 4.2% brighter in 2022 should the pandemic recede to mask individual country differences.” .
The study goes on to say that in addition to its tragic toll, the 2020/21 global health crisis has demonstrated the extent to which economic performance depends on pandemic control, “with MENA economies in “Indeed, most MENA countries entered the pandemic overconfident and unprepared to respond and rate injections to those economies that paid the price for decades of underinvestment in public health.” Vaccines inequality will also affect their economic recovery.Again, the outlook is uneven, with richer nations ahead in the field.”
At the beginning of December, the United Arab Emirates had the world’s highest fully vaccinated population at 90%, while Yemen was only fully vaccinated 1% of the population, the study added. that a more equitable deployment of vaccines across the region is “essential” to recovery.
“In regions of MENA, political instability, fragility and conflict create challenges to face as governments try to respond to the pandemic. In Lebanon, the economic fallout has had a severe impact on public utilities and people’s livelihoods. In Yemen and Syria, continued armed conflict has combined with the pandemic to plunge countries deeper into crisis. Lots of uncertainty
MENA’s modest economic recovery following a 3.8% decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020, was 0.6 percentage points higher than predicted in April of that year. Overall, the region is facing a protracted and volatile recovery, with the pandemic’s estimated cumulative cost of GDP loss approaching US$200 billion by year-end. now.”
According to the World Bank, GDP per capita – often considered a more accurate measure of living standards – conveys an even more serious message. An expected increase of 1.1% in 2021, after a decline of about 5.4% in 2020, leaves real GDP per capita 4.3% lower than 2019 levels.
The substantial borrowing by MENA governments to finance emergency spending on health and social welfare has significantly increased government debt. “Average public debt in MENA countries is forecast to decline from 56.3% to 53.6%, while in oil-importing developing countries, public debt to GDP is forecast to increase from 90 4% to 92.3% in 2021, as the fiscal deficit persists. large” concludes the World Bank.
Public debt accumulates quickly
At the same time, the cumulative cost of the pandemic is estimated to reach US$227 billion by the end of 2021, according to another World Bank. report.
The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated long-standing development challenges in the Middle East and North Africa region, “contributing to increased poverty, deterioration in public finances, increased debt vulnerability and further erode trust in government,” warned the report.
The World Bank’s latest Regional Economic Updates detail the “economic devastation” of the COVID-19 pandemic to date, the long-term ramifications of the public debt boom, and the choices that come with it. Choose the difficulty that governments will face, even as a public health crisis. abates.
Spend more, take on more debt
The need to keep spending – and to continue borrowing – will remain strong going into the future. According to the World Bank, MENA countries will have no choice but to continue spending on health care and social protection as long as the pandemic continues.
“Thus, in a post-pandemic world, most MENA countries could find themselves stuck with debt service bills that require resources that could be used for economic development.”
© Inter Press Service (2022) – All rights reservedOrigin: Inter Press Service
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