Knocking on the doors of disaffected voters in the midsummer sunshine, Bolton West’s Conservative candidate mused on the impact his party’s troubled national campaign had on the ground.
“You don’t expect everything to go perfectly and you always expect glitches,” said Chris Green, as he campaigned in north-west England. “But we let those glitches become the story of the election.”
Green won his seat – a semi-rural cluster of towns and villages on the edge of Bolton, a former mill town near Manchester – from Labour in 2015 by just 801 votes. At the last election, he increased his majority to almost 9,000, as Boris Johnson won a landslide victory with a mandate to deliver Brexit.
But Green said the current prime minister, Rishi Sunakmade his mark on the campaign five weeks ago by releasing a snap poll in a pouring rain without an umbrella.
What happened next, including Sunak’s decision to skip part of the recent D-Day commemorations and a The election betting scandal is growingHe added that it was “very frustrating”.
“The dip in Downing Street was the bacon sandwich moment of the election,” says Green, referring to a famously unflattering photo of then-Labour leader Ed Miliband eating one on the campaign trail in 2014. “After that, it was hard to get anything more positive.”
On Wednesday, Green campaigned mainly on former Conservatives and swing voters in Blackrod, a small commuter town with sweeping countryside views. Most of those who opened said they were undecided or would not vote.
“You haven’t got mine,” painter and decorator James Mullen, 73, replied when Green asked if he could trust his vote. “It’s all a gamble.”
He recounted with disgust the scandal that had befallen the Conservative Party over the past two weeks, in which 12 individuals – including Conservative candidates, party officials and police – were investigated for the bets they placed on early election day.
Mullen was previously a Labour voter but his support was “wiped out” by left-wing leader Jeremy Corbyn at the last election. This time, he is considering a no vote. The D-Day saga shocked him, while the betting scandal “just shows you the mentality of MPs”.
“Until we gain trust in politicians, we will continue to struggle to find solutions,” he added.
D-Day and the betting scandal were not explicitly mentioned that often by voters during door-to-door visits, Green said. In his view, it was unnecessary.
“You see it on people’s faces, just by looking at them,” he added. “It’s all rolled up into a frown.”
However, he said, there appeared to be little enthusiasm for the Labor Party, including fewer billboards and posters than the usual advertising from party-supporting households.
While national polls consistently predict a positive or overwhelming result victory for Sir Keir Starmer’s party in this election it also continues to show high numbers of undecided voters and low enthusiasm for Starmer himself.
Green said the lack of voter turnout in Bolton West reflected “the mood across the country”.
“You get the impression they don’t know what they’re doing,” said one 93-year-old MP. “They take up their positions with fancy titles and do absolutely nothing. It’s not just the Conservatives, it’s the Labour Party.”
He added that Starmer “couldn’t decide which way he was going to jump”.
He has voted for the Conservatives in every previous election but “I don’t support anyone at the moment”, he said. Previous manifesto promises — including social care reform — have repeatedly “fallen on deaf ears”.
He remained unmoved by Green’s assertion that such changes had been delayed by the pandemic but would be implemented by 2025. He complained that his bin had not been emptied in six weeks.
A few doors down, a young woman complained about the local rubbish collection and the state of the roads. She had voted Tory before and “couldn’t stand Keir Starmer”. But she probably wouldn’t vote either.
She summarizes her position by describing an online meme someone sent her. “I have electrical dysfunction,” it said. “None of them work for me.”
This has been a “very difficult election”, one activist admitted as she handed out leaflets door to door, adding that the area must be “very fertile territory” for the Conservatives.
But Green hopes to hold on by highlighting his record as a constituency MP. On the home front, he also makes two key arguments on behalf of his party: that the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have hampered their plans for delivery; and that a local Conservative Party is needed to prevent a Labour government from winning a majority.
Mike Pendlebury, 71, was convinced.
“I’m scared to death of the Labor Party,” he said, pointing to concerns about its approach to tax and spending, the economic impact of net zero policies and fears that Starmer will take the land country returns to the EU.
He will definitely vote Conservative. But he also demanded to know why Sunak has not done more to tackle illegal immigration.
Politicians “tell you everything before the election and have no interest in putting any of it into practice”, he added, before noting that both Sunak and his predecessor, Liz Truss, were installed by Conservatives, not voters.
Green later said such warnings were typical of the mood of Tory supporters. But every vote really does count, he told Pendlebury, adding that it would prevent Labour from “going full socialism”.
For many others, however, that argument remains unconvincing.
“Honestly, I can’t promise any support,” said a middle-aged woman nearby.
Her concerns include the state of the NHS, which she says is “collapsing”. But she has not yet decided who she will vote for.
“They argue too much instead of working together,” she said of politicians, adding that she and her husband watched televised election debates to make their decision.
However, she was unsure whether they would want to watch the final BBC showdown between Starmer and Sunak that evening.
“Maybe,” she said. “Until I get uncomfortable with what they say then we will switch.”
