AMMAN, Jordan, August 12 (IPS) – The storm of Iraqi parliament by Al-Sadr supporters fueled by years of political deadlock – threatens Iraq’s democracy and peace
Iraq’s failing democracy is being put to the test once again, and the Iraqi people are paying the price. In recent weeks, supporters of Shi’ite leader Muqtada Al-Sadr stormed the Iraqi parliament and held a sit-down twice.
Their protest thwarted the planned election of Mohammad Shia Al-Sudani as prime minister. Al-Sudani was nominated by the Shi-ite Coordination Framework, which brings together various groups and militias, with the exception of Al-Sadr’s party.
A political stalemate has enveloped Iraq since the October 2021 elections, when mainly Shi’ite forces were dispersed, vying for influence. Shi’ite cleric Al-Sadr’s party emerged as the winner, with 73 out of 329 seats, while two Iran-backed Shia coalitions formed – the Fatah Coalition and the Al-Nasr Coalition – suffer great losses.
After the election, Al-Sadr wants to form a majority government in the form of a three-man coalition that includes his movement, the Sunni Taqaddum Coalition and the Kurdish KDP. However, the Shi’ite Coordination Framework calls for the continuation of a unity government, which is common in Iraq, of which it will be a part.
After failing to form a government, the Sadr party MPs resigned. This leaves the ball in the field of the Coordination Frame. However, Sadr’s withdrawal from parliament was seen as a strategic plot in an attempt to build credibility as an alleged outsider against a corrupt political class, allowing the organization to mobilize mass demonstrations.
Against that backdrop, the biggest protests since the October 2019 mass protests, as well as the congressional seat, are hardly surprising.
The current protests are not related to Al-Sudani. Terrorists portray Al-Sudani as a puppet of Nouri Al-Maliki, leader of the State of Law Coalition and former prime minister from 2006 to 2014, although Iraqi experts are skeptical. about this.
In any case, Al-Sudani, the human rights minister under Nouri Al-Maliki, would not be a bad choice compared to other potential candidates. However, before recent events, Al-Sudani did not have many opportunities to take the position of prime minister.
There seems to be no roadmap around the populist king Al-Sadr. On the one hand, he denounces corruption, mismanagement, and Iran’s wobble in Iraq, but he has barely cleaned himself up. His impulsivity significantly limited Iraq’s options for peaceful and democratic solutions.
This risks creating an escalation that has so far claimed no lives, but has injured more than 100 protesters and security forces.
Potential scenarios range from new elections to a resumption of civil war. However, there are two factors that make the civil war scenario unlikely, at least for now. First, confronting each other here are Shia groups in Iraq – Al-Sadr and the Shi’ite Coordination Framework – who, despite conflicting over Iran’s influence and form of government, share similar views. religious and are celebrating the holy month Mu? Arram. .
This is the first month of the Islamic calendar in which the Shi’ites mourn the family’s tragedy? Usayn ibn? Al? Participation in war was forbidden during this period. Second, the actors in this power struggle are well aware that a civil war could reduce their power ratio and limit their ability to distribute power.
People’s faith in democracy is shaken
The main victims of this political blockade are democracy and the Iraqi people. In any event, the record low 43.5% voter turnout undermined the legitimacy of parliament. Even more so with the withdrawal of Sadrist MPs from parliament, which currently represents only a minority of the population.
The public’s faith in democracy has been severely shaken. From October to December 2019, the most violent mass protests since 2003 shook the country. Young Iraqis expressed their frustration at rampant corruption, poor government services, high unemployment and the political system.
The demonstrations were violently suppressed by Iraqi security forces, leaving hundreds of protesters dead or injured. The core demands of the Tishreen (October) movement were fundamental reforms of the political system (such as the abolition of the so-called Muhasasa system, regarding religious-ethnic quotas) and a government New, no corruption. Both needs remain largely unsatisfied. The Tishreen movement will therefore have every reason to take to the streets again.
However, the movement is more fragmented than ever. Radical and religious forces have infiltrated the movement and tried to impose their goals on it. Some have been selected by the cooperative government, while others are attached to the parties that emerged from the protests. Therefore, we can assume that today’s movement has less potential for mobilization than it has so far.
The longer the political blockade continues, the less will be left of the people’s faith in democracy. That reduces the chances of resolving the political crisis peacefully. Over the years, we have seen that political elites cannot manage the transformation of the existing system.
More political participation among Iraqi citizens, such as in free and equal elections and pressure from the streets could bring about the change they have long wanted. But to that end, corrupt elites will have to stop clinging to power and pave the way for a democracy that is not just on paper, but in existence.
Sarah Hepp head of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung’s Iraq office, as well as the Climate and Energy Project for the MENA region from Amman in Jordan. Previously, she worked at FES’ EU office in Brussels and at FES’ Baden-Württemberg office.
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