PORTLAND, USA, January 31 (IPS) – Demographic denialism is increasingly appearing in countries around the globe. Many government officials, politicians, business leaders, media commentators and others are blatantly denying the reality of demographics and possible future trends and behaviors. wrongdoing is progressing.
The obvious reasons behind denials and lies include politics, profit, power, discrimination, notoriety, hope, trust, defiance, fear and evasion. Some of the more frequently advertised disapprovals are reviewed below with information on demographic realities and possible future trends.
The first day, the world population is NOTfall anytime soon. The world’s population has quadrupled in the last 100 years, from 2 to 8 billion and is expected to reach 10 billion by mid-century (Figure 1).
Source: United Nations.
While the world population has grown rapidly in the 20th century, the world population is expected to keep growing in the coming decades. The world population is currently growing by about 80 million people a year and is expected to add another 2 billion by 2056.
Monday, the distribution of the world’s population across the planet will NOT same as it happened in the past. For example, in 1950, six of the ten largest populations were developed countries. However, by the end of the 20th century, three developed countries were among the ten most populous, and by 2050, one developed country is expected to be among them.
Today, some populations, mainly in developed areas, decline mainly because more deaths births and is likely to be significantly smaller in the coming years. Other population groups, mainly in developing regions, are growing rapidly, with births outnumbering deaths.
For example, of the 1.8 billion world population expected to increase by 2050, 1.1 billion, or about 60%, are expected to occur in Africa and about 0.6 billion, or 32 percent, in Asia. In contrast, the populations of North America and Europe, which are projected to increase by 52 million, by 3%, and by 37 million, by 2%, respectively (Figure 2).
Source: United Nations.
The third day, international migration is NOT solved by high wall, long fence, sea patrol, immigrant visa or call so that people don’t come. Immigration is the 21st century crisis with the number of people wishing to migrate far beyond the acceptable level of the destination countries.
Governments, international agencies and regional organizations have not yet come up with solutions to deal with immigration. The authorities showed up unexpectedly at what must you do about the wave of migrants looking to get a job, apply for asylum, seek refuge, escape climate change and risk their lives for good living conditions.
In addition, most illegal migrants are not repatriated. When illegal migrants are in the country, governments will encounter difficulty send them back to their home country. After a while, a pardon or a pathway to citizenship may be offered to those already established. However, such actions can also motivate others to migrate illegally.
Wednesday, population size To be NOT consequences of climate change, environmental degradation, loss of biodiversity and pollution. The larger the population size, the greater the consequences for climate, environment, biodiversity and pollution due to the demand for energy, water, food, housing, land, resources, material wealth. , machinery, transportation, etc. the larger.
Government leaders and many of their economic advisers are not prepared to admit that population stabilization and growth reduction are Necessary to address climate change. As witnessed at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in GlasgowLimiting population growth is not part of the climate change negotiations.
Contrary to most countries leaders advocates of the continued growth of their respective populations, thousands scientists around the world are urging governments to stabilize or reduce the size of their populations along with important action related to energy, short-lived pollutants, nature, food and the economy. Such actions will contribute significantly to efforts to address climate change and environmental degradation.
Thursday, the aging of the human population is NOT a temporary phenomenon and most governments are unprepared to deal with its wide-ranging consequences. For most countries and much of the world, young populations are a thing of the past and significantly older populations are inevitable future.
Population aging is the result of lower birth rates and increased life expectancy. The world’s fertility rate is half what it was in the 1950s, 5 to 2.5 births per woman, and life expectancy has increased by more than 50% since then, from 47 to 73 years.
Population aging is increasingly affecting the basic Aspects of human society, including the economy, taxes, jobs, housing, pensions, healthcare and people with disabilities. Instead of hoping for a return to a youthful structure, government officials, business leaders and others need to prepare for an aging population.
Friday, who are vaccinated and unvaccinated for coronavirus do NOT are there similar? dead and disease rates. Vaccination essentially reduces the risk of death and illness caused by the virus.
The remainder were not clearly immunized resulting in higher rate mortality and morbidity rates. Unfortunately, those higher levels have contributed to reduced survival rates at birth and placed a heavy burden on communities where large numbers remain unvaccinated.
In short, not being immunized increases the likelihood of death and illness from coronavirus. In contrast, coronavirus vaccines, like vaccines in the past for major diseases, such as smallpox, tetanus, hepatitis, rubella, whooping cough, pneumonia, measles and polio, is effective in reducing mortality, morbidity, and the spread of the virus. withdrawals and social costs.
Saturday, women do NOT would like maintain in the home. During the 20th century, considerable social, economic and political progress was made in terms of women’s equal rights. That progress has been greatly accelerated by improvements in health, education, employment, women’s urbanization, delayed marriage and childbearing, and reductions in family size.
The traditional stay-at-home mother is increasingly being replaced by working mother. More and more women are seeking higher education, careers, economic independence, and personal social identity.
In addition, many women do not want to return to marriage Inequality where the husband is the head of the household, making important decisions and controlling finances and assets. However, some conservative groups are resisting efforts to achieve gender equality and seek to uphold traditional roles and ways of life. Simply put, these groups want women to be in the family and to be loved, honored and follow their husbands.
Eighth, couples do NOT want to have many children. Although publicly appropriate, policy and incentives by officials, business leaders and others to raise fertility, fertility rates are unlikely to return to their previous relatively high levels.
In country after country, most couples decide to have kids are having one or two. As fewer women are giving birth to four or more children, fertility rates have fallen in every major region. With the exception of sub-Saharan Africa, fertility rates for most countries are likely to be below replacement in the coming decades (Figure 3).
Source: United Nations.
Ninth, most countries are NOT against induced abortion. Different countries about policy related to abortion depending on each specific basis. 98% of countries allow abortion to save a woman’s life, 72% for a woman’s physical health, 60% for rape, incest or abortion, and 34% at the request of the woman. women (Figure 4).
Source: United Nations.
Over the past five decades, a unmistakable trend took place during the liberalization of abortion laws. The trend has coincided with refuse in the worldwide abortion rate.
However, illegal abortion does not prevent abortion from happening. Even when abortion is strictly restricted, illegal abortions still occur in relatively large numbers. About 8 percent of die mother globally as a result of complications from unsafe abortion, of which nearly all take place in developing countries.
Tenth, the traditional family is NOT dominant social norms around the world. Fathers at work, mothers at home, children, and “until you die” marriages were increasingly common features of families in the past.
In many countries, getting married is no longer a necessity for financial survival, social interaction and self-improvement. More and more people are cohabiting, the proportion of couples having children outside of marriage is increasing, and many governments have helped single parent families. In addition, same-sex marriage is now practiced and recognized in 31 countries.
In conclusion, it is worrisome that demographic denialism is spreading in countries all over the world. Some not only deny the demographic reality but also promote falsehood. Presenting demographic facts and possible future trends openly, accurately, and objectively can contribute to the eradication of demographic denialism.
* Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Birth, Death, Migration and Other Important Population Issues. “
© Inter Press Service (2022) – All rights reservedOrigin: Inter Press Service
