Conclude: After several days of hiatus due to a now withdrawn Russian request regarding the relief of newly imposed Western sanctions, the JCPOA negotiations appear ready to resume in Vienna. The Wall Street Journal reported that the negotiations are facing a residual roadblock that could derail the discussions. The issue raised is the US lifting of terrorist sanctions against Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. The Wall Street Journal The report called it perhaps the “most politically sensitive” issue with some US allies such as Israel vehemently opposed to the lifting of sanctions. Some US officials say that failure to compromise on this point could lead to a breakdown in negotiations. What could this mean for a future deal and how does Russia’s role in the negotiations unfold?
Story:
- Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said at finish the speaking to his Russian counterpart, “If we reach an agreement with the US on the remaining issues regarding some of the main red lines of Iran, based on my talks with Mr. Lavrov today, Russia will be in side with the Islamic Republic of Iran until a lasting agreement and benefits are reached, continuing to play the constructive role it has played since its inception.”
- For his part, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speak“We have received written warranties – they are included in the text of the JCPOA restoration agreement itself, and in these documents reliably protect all projects. provided by the JCPOA and such activities – including the association of our companies and specialists. ”
- Meanwhile, a senior official of the US State Department speak“We continue to commit ourselves to Russia to return to full implementation of the JCPOA”, adding, “of course we will not sanction Russia’s participation in nuclear projects that fall within the resumption of implementation.” full JCPOA.”
The cryptographic summary spoke to Ambassador Gary Grappoformer US Ambassador to Oman and Heather Williamsbefore served as the national intelligence official for Iran on the National Intelligence Council so that they assumed the status of the negotiations.
Summary of the password: What is Russia’s goal in strengthening sanctions related to Ukraine in the framework of the JCPOA negotiations?
Ambassador Gary GrappoFormer US Ambassador to Iran
It’s hard to see through the smoke and flames of the invasion of Ukraine, what the Russian government might be thinking about other pressing foreign policy issues like the JCPOA. The Russian Foreign Ministry is oblivious to the war and what their bosses may be looking for after the setbacks they experienced. However, their chief negotiator on the JCPOA has played a seemingly constructive role so far. So it is strange that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made the statement he made after the Russians made this 11th dangerous situation that put the Americans and the Iranians on the same side, shocking. Apparently, the Russian gambler is somehow exempt from the recently imposed sanctions using the collapsed JCPOA and Lavrov needs to come up with a plea/justification. His interpretation is entirely his own. I suspect the US team could waive comment until the renewed JCPOA is signed and stamped, if that is indeed passed. The Russians will not seek to escape sanctions and make no concessions… and they know it. If the deal fails because of a Russian conspiracy, they will be blamed on all sides, including Iran. It was a hail maneuver of Mary that never had a prayer.
Heather WilliamsFormer Acting Director of National Intelligence on Iran, National Intelligence Council
I think Russia has rejected their request for clear, far-reaching guarantees and reinterpreted the language of the agreement in a way that saves face, rather than the US or EU3 (France, Germany, UK) making concessions. Russia on sanctions. face because of its actions in Ukraine. Nothing about Lavrov’s statements suggests to me that the language of the proposal being drafted has necessarily changed due to recent Russian actions. Since it looks like language agreement was reached before Russia attempted to play the spoofing game, I don’t think Iran – nor us – would be interested in revisiting that language if we could avoid it. Okay. This is a carefully balanced apple cart – no one wants to mess with it.
Read more JCPOA: If we reach an agreement, what does it mean? Featuring details from the former Director of National Intelligence of Iran, Norman Roule exclusively in The Cipher Brief
Summary of the password: How do you expect the JCPOA to proceed? Will the temporary impasse presented by Russia affect the continuation of the talks or simply another obstacle to be resolved on the way to an agreement?
Grappo Ambassador: No one in the US administration has said much about the state of the negotiations other than to say they are closed. American discipline is both necessary and admirable, given the sensitivity of the matter to so many interests in America and abroad. Without knowing the red lines of the United States, it is difficult to know where we might be. It is my opinion that this administration does not want to suffer the same fate as the Obama administration, which is to negotiate a deal that is shared by Republicans as well as many Democrats and many of our allies in China. East, especially Israel, concurred. , and was subsequently overthrown by the next administration of the Republican Party. It will therefore have to deal with time horizons as various sanctions expire, missiles and Americans are held by the Iranian government. I would be surprised if these three issues did not emerge in some form in a newly negotiated JCPOA.
Williams: At this point, it seems likely that a resumption of the deal is imminent, despite Russia’s failed attempt to squeeze out its self-serving advantage during these final hours of negotiations. I don’t foresee those diplomatic games having a lasting impact on the deal itself, but they – and the Erbil attacks – are a reminder that the nuclear deal will be upended by all Other controversial issues are taking place in the region. I take it as a reminder that the JCPOA’s ability to make meaningful progress in curbing Iran’s nuclear program and its ability to develop nuclear weapons — even if it fails to resolve address Iran’s missile capabilities and nefarious influence in the region — as a strength, not a weakness, of the nuclear deal. Trying to resolve all of the contentious issues with Iran through negotiation is an impossible task, but resolving this important issue allows us to focus on leveraging other tools of national power. over our other national security interests with respect to Iran.
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Summary of the password: Of course, there are other interests and agendas at stake regarding the JCPOA besides the agreement itself. What is the impact of domestic and regional politics, proxy attacks and insurgency, as well as concerns about Iran’s nuclear future on debates, stability, and near and long-term conflict? ?
Ambassador Grappo: My personal view is that this is a problem [the Biden] the authorities seem to have pursued diligently and faithfully. The return to no deal could easily be explained, while disappointing for some solid members of the party, could easily be explained by a bit of short-term domestic political setback. (Then we should expect tensions in the Middle East to rise, however, as the Israelis and Saudis take steps to counter the Iran nuclear threat.) And the administration will be free of objections. of the Republican Party, showed determination at the bottom and not as “exploratory,” as it had been. Meanwhile, a new deal will have to meet some rather high limitations, of which the administration and the negotiating team must be very much aware.
As for Iran’s support of various evil groups in the region, here is a strategy problem for the Iranians. Making progress on that will require the direct engagement of many actors in the region, many without communicating with each other. But establishing some process to deal with that, or at least appear to be, would be a remarkable achievement. But so far, we have not heard any information on this matter from any of the negotiators. The US and our allies in the P5+1 (China, France, Russia, UK, USA — plus Germany) will probably make some sort of joint statement and the Iranians will have a something different, with no obvious solution other than continued, best efforts. I have less hope in this regard than the rest.
This section includes research, analysis, and reports by Cryptographic Briefing Analyst Ken Hughes
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