Cyril Ramaphosa’s future is in doubt after disappointing South African elections

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Senior figures in the African National Congress on Friday debated the future of President Cyril Ramaphosa and discussed coalition partner options, as losses deepen in South Africa’s general election. Phi is getting worse and worse.

With more than half of the votes counted after Wednesday’s vote, FACILITATE at just under 42%, it was several percentage points below what most analysts had predicted and a recount would deprive it of its dominant majority.

The poor performance has complicated the task of finding a partner that will allow it to extend its unbreakable rule of South Africa lasted until 1994 after the end of apartheid.

It also casts doubt on the future of Ramaphosawho took over six years ago on the promise of reinvigorating the ANC but instead presided over its worst ever electoral performance.

Mavuso Msimang, a respected figure in the party, said there would now be questions about whether Ramaphosa could continue as leader. “If the vote stays close to 40% then people will ask him to leave. There’s a lot to say about that,” he said.

Msimang said that if Ramaphosa stays, a coalition with the market-oriented Democratic Alliance is possible. The latest vote tally puts Mr. DA in second place with 23.5%.

But if Ramaphosa is pushed out, Msimang added, it would pave the way for a deal with Jacob Zuma’s Umkhonto we Sizwe party. The MK Party holds just over 11% despite being founded by Ramaphosa’s predecessor just six months ago.

“What businesses want is certainty that can only come with the ANC-DA coalition,” Msimang said, adding that some in the ANC would be outspokenly opposed to the deal with the DA, which they see as both blatant and reactionary.

With 56.3% of votes counted as of Friday morning, the ANC had 41.9%, well below the expected mid-40s tally and the 57.5% it received last year. 2019. in the leadership of the ANC was great,” Msimang said, “but we got there.”

Given the scale of the ANC’s losses, political analysts say, it will be difficult to form a working coalition without allying with the DA or the MK party. Most other small parties did not receive more than 1 or 2% of the vote.

Paul Mashatile, Ramaphosa’s deputy and possible successor, is said to be most likely to support a deal with MK and possibly the radical camp. Those who fought for economic freedom. The Marxist-leaning party led by firefighter Julius Malema came in fourth place with 9.5%.

Gwede Mantashe, the ANC president, told the FT there was no call within the ANC for Ramaphosa to be removed.

“I will fight this with everything I have. You don’t discuss removing a president in the middle of an election,” he said. Rather, he said, talk of Ramaphosa stepping down was something “being discussed by our opponents”.

Asked if the ANC would consider the issue after the election, he said: “This will not be discussed.” Mantashe said it would be wrong to consider this a “bad result” when the ANC still won more than 3 million votes and there are new parties emerging on the South African political landscape.

Lawson Naidoo, executive secretary of the Council for the Advancement of the Constitution of South Africa, said Ramaphosa needed to “move quickly” towards an agreement with the DA or he risked being pushed out by his own party. out first.

“If they get rid of him, they will reach an agreement with MK,” he said. “Once the ANC starts mobilizing against Cyril, he could be eliminated very quickly.”

“Ramaphosa’s head is on the line here,” said William Gumede, president of the Johannesburg-based Democracy Works Foundation. They’re looking for a scapegoat and it could very well be him. He will have to use all his negotiating skills to maintain power.”

Ralph Mathekga, an independent political analyst, said the ANC’s likely outcome would put any incumbent leader under pressure. “Ramaphosa is probably under more pressure than most, given how vulnerable he is already. I can’t see him riding this out,” he said.