SYDNEY and KUALA LUMPUR, May 31 (IPS) – Economic sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies against Russia for its illegal invasion of Ukraine have failed to achieve their stated goals. Instead, they are exacerbating economic stagnation and inflation around the world. Worse, they are exacerbating hunger, especially in Africa.
Sanctions cut both ways
Unless approved by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), sanctions are not authorized by international law. With Russia’s veto in the UNSC, unilateral sanctions by the US and its allies increased following the invasion of Ukraine.
Between 1950-2016, ‘comprehensive’ trade sanctions cut bilateral trade between sanctioned countries and their victims by 77% Medium. The United States has imposed more sanctions regimes, and for a longer time, than any other country.
The imposition of unilateral sanctions has accelerated over the past 15 years. During 1990-2005, the United States imposed about a third sanctions regimes around the worldwith The European Union (EU) is also important.
The US has increased its use of sanctions since 2016, imposing them on more than 1,000 entities or individuals each year, from 2016 to 2020 on average – nearly 80% more than from 2008-2015. The Trump administration in one term has elevated US shares all new sanctions down by almost half from the previous one-third.
From January to May 2022, 75 countries have implemented 19,268 trade-restrictive measures. Such measures in terms of food and fertilizers (85%) greatly exceed those in terms of raw materials and fuel (15%). No wonder the world now faces less supply and higher prices for fuel and food.
Monetary authorities have been raising interest rates to curb inflation, but such efforts have failed to address the main cause of the current high prices. Worse, they have the potential to deepen and prolong stagnation, increasing the likelihood of ‘stagflation’.
The sanctions are supposed to bring Russia to its knees. But less than three months after the ruble crashed, exchange rates back to pre-war levels, up from the ‘pile of rubles’ that Western economists promised. With enough public support, the Russian regime need not rush to comply with the sanctions.
Sanctions push up food prices
War and sanctions are currently the main causes of increasing food insecurity. Russian and Ukrainian production almost a third of the world’s wheat exports, nearly 20% of maize (maize) exports and nearly 80% of sunflower seed products, including oil. The associated maritime blockades on the Black Sea have helped reduce Russian exports.
All of these have push up world grain prices and oilseeds, increasing the cost of food for everyone. As of May 19, Agricultural product price index increased by 42% from January 2021, with wheat prices 91% higher and corn prices 55% higher.
World Bank April 2022 Commodity market outlook Note that war changed world production, trade, and consumption. It expects prices to be historically high, at least through 2024, exacerbating food insecurity and inflation.
Western bans on Russian oil have risen sharply energy prices. Both Russia and its ally, Belarus – also under economic sanctions – are the main suppliers of agricultural fertilizers – consists of 38% potash fertilizer, 17% mixed fertilizer and 15% nitrogen fertilizer.
Fertilizer prices increased sharply in March, nearly 20% increase compared to two months ago and almost triple what it was in March 2021! Less supplies at expensive will delay agricultural production for many years.
With food agriculture less sustainable, such as due to global warming, sanctions are reducing output and income, in addition to raising food prices in the short and long term.
Sanctions hurt the poor the most
Even when supposedly targeted, sanctions are blunt tools, often producing unintended, sometimes contrary, consequences. From here on, sanctions often fail to achieve the stated goals.
Many countries are poor and food insecure main wheat importers from Russia and Ukraine. The duo supplies 90% of imports from Somalia, 80% of goods from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and about 40% of goods from both Yemen and Ethiopia.
It appears that the financial blockade on Russia has hurt its smaller and more vulnerable Central Asian neighbors: 4.5 million from Uzbekistan, 2.4 million from Tajikistan, and almost a million. Kyrgyzstan works in Russia. Difficulty in sending money back home makes it difficult for their families back home.
Although not their stated purpose, U.S. measures for the period 1982–2011 pain the poor more. Poverty levels in sanctioned countries are 3.8 percentage points higher than in similar countries.
Sanctions also pain children and other disadvantaged groups more. Research in 69 countries found that sanctions reduced birth weight and increased the likelihood of dying before the age of three. Not surprisingly, economic sanctions violate the United Nations Convention on Children’s Rights.
Research 98 less developed and newly industrialized countries life expectancy in affected countries is reduced by about 3.5 months per year under UNSC sanctions. Thus, on average over 5 years the sanctions adopted by the UNSC have reduced life expectancy by 1.2–1.4 years.
World hunger is on the rise
Like the polemical re-tests between Russia and Coalition led by the United States due to rising food and fuel prices, the world is racing with a “Apocalypse” Mankind “Disastrous“. Higher prices, prolonged shortages and recessions could trigger political upheaval or worse.
The Secretary-General of the United Nations has emphasize“We need to ensure a steady flow of food and energy through open markets by lifting all unnecessary export restrictions, transferring surpluses and reserves to those in need and keeping food prices at the forefront to limit market volatility.”
Despite the World Bank’s decline in poverty, the number of undernourished people has increased from 643 million in 2013 to 768 million in 2020. Up to 811 million people are chronically hungrywhile those facing ‘severe food insecurity’ has more than doubled since 2019 from 135 million to 276 million.
With the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, OXFAM warning, the “hunger virus” could be even more deadly. The pandemic has since pushed tens of millions of people into food insecurity.
In 2021, before the war in Ukraine, 193 million people in 53 countries considered to be facing a ‘food crisis or worse’. With war and sanctions, 83 million people – or 43% – are expected to be victims by the end of 2022.
Modern economic sanctions are the equivalent of ancient sieges, which attempt to bring starving people to their knees. The devastating effects of sieges about access to food, health and other basic services is well known.
The siege is illegal under international humanitarian law. UNSC has unanimously passed resolutions demanding the immediate lifting of sieges, such as 2014 Resolution 2139, against groups of civilians in Syria.
But the permanent members of the Council with veto power are responsible for invading Ukraine and unilaterally imposing sanctions. As a result, the UNSC will generally not act on the impact of sanctions on billions of innocent civilians. No one seems to be able to defend them against today’s sanctions, weapons of mass starvation.
IPS UN Office
By @IPSNewsUNBureau
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© Inter Press Service (2022) – All rights reservedOrigin: Inter Press Service
