According to Cowen, there are difficulties ahead for VF Corp. Analyst John Kernan downgraded Vans and North Face’s parent company to better market performance and cut his price target to $50 from $52. The new target implies a near 10% gain from Friday’s close. “We see uncertainty regarding management guidance and Vans’ return to acceleration implied by FY24 consensus estimates as the digital trends that we follow-up for Vans remains subdued,” Kernan wrote in a note Monday. “The consensus assumption for margin expansion through FY24 seems lofty.” According to Kernan, a large amount of inventory that is up 92% year-over-year is part of the problem. At the same time, uncertain global macroeconomics, foreign exchange troubles, price drops, product and sourcing costs are likely to pressure the company. “We continue to see increased product costs and associated disruptions to working capital across the sector, which makes modeling sales and gross margins challenging,” Kernan writes. “. “As we update our model, we’re now having more difficulty achieving consensus gross margins and extending EBIT margins beyond year 23 and into fiscal year 24 (where consensus assumes EBIT returns to a 22-year high of 13.1%).” The company’s buyback program could also come under pressure as it will have to pay huge taxes in the future. That is weighing on Cowen’s earnings-per-share estimates, pushing them further on the Wall Street consensus for the shoe brand. Finally, competition in the footwear sector has increased, which may affect future market share. “Google Search Trends for Vans are significantly lower than 2019 levels through August,” Kernan wrote. “Vans’ exposure to China’s recovery and Europe’s macro also creates more uncertainty.” — Michael Bloom of CNBC contributed to this report.