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COVID means labour market recovery still ‘slow and uncertain’ |


In its leading World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2022 (WESO Trend), ILO lowered its forecast for a labor market recovery in 2022, forecasting a continued large deficit in working hours compared to the pre-pandemic period.

“Two years after this crisis, the outlook remains slim and the path to recovery is slow and uncertain,” said ILO Director-General Guy Ryder.

The outlook is not good

Change in employment by type and status, compared to the same period in 2019, Q2 2020 to Q2 2021 (percentage).

Source: ILO / World Social and Employment Outlook

Change in employment by type and status, compared to the same period in 2019, Q2 2020 to Q2 2021 (percentage).

The previous full-year estimate of last May, forecast a deficit equivalent to 26 million full-time jobs.

While this latest forecast is an improvement on the 2021 situation, it is still nearly 2% below pre-pandemic working hours globally, the report pointed out.

Furthermore, the global unemployment rate is expected to remain above pre-COVID levels until at least 2023.

The 2022 level for those out of work, is estimated at 207 million, compared with 186 million in 2019.

The head of the ILO added: “Many workers are being asked to move into new types of work – to cope with the prolonged decline in international travel and tourism, for example.”

‘Damage can last’

WESO Trend also warned that the overall impact on employment is significantly larger than the raw numbers, as many people have left the workforce.

The global workforce participation rate in 2022 is expected to remain 1.2 percentage points lower than in 2019.

The downgrade reflects the impact of COVID variants, such as Delta and Omicron, as well as the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the future course of the pandemic.

“We have seen possible long-term damage to the labor market, along with increased poverty and inequality,” said Mr. Ryder.

Completely different effects

The report warns of stark disparities in the impact the crisis is having on groups of workers and countries – deepening inequalities within and between countries – and makes weakening of the economic, financial and social structures of almost any Country, regardless of its status of development.

Damage can take years to repair, with possible long-term consequences for the workforce, household income, and social and possibly political cohesion.

While the effects are being felt in labor markets globally, the ILO observes wide variation in recovery patterns, which appear to correlate with containment. Coronavirus.


Women work in an agricultural cooperative in Zambia.

© ILO / Marcel Crozet

Women work in an agricultural cooperative in Zambia.

Regional difference

Europe and North America are showing the most encouraging signs of recovery, while Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, have the most negative outlook.

At the national level, Labor market recovery has been strongest in high-income countries, while lower-middle-income economies are trending worst..

And the disproportionate impact of the crisis on women’s employment is expected to linger in the coming years, according to the report.

At the same time, WESO Trend flags that the closure of educational and training institutions “will have lasting effects” on young people, especially those without internet.

There can be no real recovery from this pandemic without a broad-based labor market recovery. And to be sustainable, this recovery must be based on the principles of decent work – including health and safety, equity, social protection and social dialogue,” said the head of the ILO.

Projections

The analysis includes comprehensive labor market projections for 2022 and 2023 and assesses how the labor market recovery has played out around the world – reflecting the different approaches of the labor market. countries for pandemic recovery and impact analysis on different labor groups and economic sectors.


The full-time deficit is comparable in hours worked, employment and workforce compared to 2019 (millions).

As in previous crises, it also highlights that for some, temporary employment has created a buffer against pandemic shocks.

And while many temporary jobs were terminated or not renewed, replacements were created, including for workers who lost their full-time jobs.

On average, the ILO considers the proportion of temporary work unchanged.

The publication also provides a summary of key policy recommendations for creating a comprehensive, people-centred crisis recovery process at both the national and international levels.



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