Counting continues on the second day of Ireland’s general election

The leaders of Ireland’s three main political parties have all been re-elected to serve in the Dáil (Irish parliament).

So far, 48 of the Dáil’s 174 seats have been filled and counting will continue on Sunday morning.

Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin, Fine Gael’s Simon Harris and Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald have overcome their first hurdles in the Irish general election.

Now they all face an even bigger challenge – trying to form the next government.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael served together in the outgoing government, and after the first day of counting, they appear ready to return to government.

If they agree to do so, they may need the support of one of the smaller parties or some of the many independent TDs expected to be elected when counting continues on Sunday.

Sinn Féin has said it also wants to join the next government and that the party is ready to talk to other parties and independents.

However, based on current predictions, the scale of the challenge facing Sinn Féin is enormous.

Political experts are now predicting that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael could win a combined total of more than 80 seats – within striking distance of the golden figure of 88 TDs needed to secure a majority in the Dáil.

The same experts believe Sinn Féin could win around 40 seats.

But even if it achieves that, it will still fall far short of what is needed by a Dáil majority.

In that case, Sinn Féin would have to look towards smaller, independent parties.

However, smaller sides are expected to only have single figures when all their TDs are finally confirmed.

If one turns to the independent groups, one finds a very different set of TDs.

Finding a common goal in such circumstances will be another big challenge for the party.

To resolve the issue, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have stressed that they are not interested in sharing power with Sinn Féin because of fundamental policy differences on a range of issues.

Analysis – BBC News NI political editor Enda McClafferty

The race for power is not yet halfway over but the final results are starting to take shape.

Fianna Fáil is closing in as the biggest party, with favorites Fine Gael taking the runner-up spot just ahead of Sinn Féin.

If that order remains after the last count, it is reversed poll prediction which has Sinn Féin in front and Fianna Fáil in third place.

If Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael win a combined total of more than 80 seats, they could look to Labor or the independent TDs to strengthen the government.

Sinn Féin is still toying with the prospect of leading a left-leaning coalition but it will struggle to get the numbers needed according to current predictions.

Despite what McDonald described as her party’s “incredible” performance, she could still see herself returning to the opposition benches.

All this means that Sinn Féin may have to engineer a sensational political class if it wants to enter government in the Irish Republic for the first time.

Speaking on BBC NI’s Sunday Politics programme, former Fianna Fáil government adviser Derek Mooney said there was “no chance” of Sinn Féin joining government.

He said: “It appears that three out of 10 people who voted Sinn Féin in 2020 have not voted Sinn Féin this time.

However, Sinn Féin MLA Caoimhe Archibald said “there will be negotiations to become a government”.

“It’s not going to go well for either side,” she added.

What Sinn Féin and all parties will have is time.

There is widespread belief that negotiations to form a new government could stretch beyond Christmas and into the new year.

On Saturday, party leaders McDonald and Michelle O’Neill were delighted to join Sinn Féin supporters at the RDS in Dublin.

They are clearly extremely pleased with the number of seats expected to be won by Sinn Féin.

As things stand, few political commentators expect Sinn Féin’s jubilation to be sustained on the other side of government negotiations.