In June, the CIA issued a vague warning to a number of European countries, including Germany, that two Nord Stream gas pipelines carrying natural gas from Russia could be targeted in the near future. upcoming attacks, three senior officials with knowledge of the intelligence said Tuesday.
Officials said the warning was not specific and they declined to say whether Russia itself had been identified as a possible attacker. US officials say that while it appears the damage to the pipelines was caused by sabotage, they have not yet reached a conclusion as to who may be responsible. European officials reported that both pipelines suffered a sudden loss of pressure and released gas into the sea, and the chance of both having an accident almost simultaneously seems low.
The German newspaper Der Spiegel was the first to report that the US had provided what intelligence officials called a “strategic warning” of a possible attack – a warning without specific details. possible time, place, or manner of a potential attack.
The CIA declined to comment on the warning.
The Biden administration, which in the impending war often accuses Russia of planning an attack on Ukraine, was careful on Tuesday not to blame Moscow – or anyone else. At a White House news briefing on Tuesday, press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, said she would not “speculate on the cause of this”.
“Our partners are investigating this matter, so we stand ready to support their efforts once they complete their investigation,” she said. Some officials warn that because the warning is three months old, it may not be related to the most recent incidents.
Jean-Pierre noted that the pipelines were not actively pumping gas into Europe when the pressure loss occurred. The older pipeline, Nord Stream 1, has not delivered gas into Europe for weeks, with the Russians claiming they need to do maintenance and repair work. That was seen by many in Europe as a warning that President Vladimir Putin could turn off the gas as winter approaches, depending on whether Europe waives Western-led sanctions. after the February 24 invasion of Ukraine or not.
The newer pipeline, Nord Stream 2, was never operational and Germany said it canceled part of the project shortly after the invasion.
Officials warned that it would be too early to conclude that Russia was behind the incident. They note that, precisely because Putin is trying to show that he has his finger on the gas valve, he may want to keep the pipeline in good working order. A pipeline breach, if difficult to fix, could interfere with how he can control his leverage.
While some European governments were quick to accuse Russia of sabotage, US government officials said there were also other possibilities that could explain what happened.
Putin’s government may have tried to manipulate the pipeline somehow and accidentally caused an accident, or, potentially, another country could have caused the leak to prevent Russia from profiting from the price. energy increases. NGOs may be behind the vandalism.
It is also possible, even if unlikely, that there is no vandalism involved and a pure accident causing the leak.
Earlier this week, the main directorate of Ukraine’s intelligence service posted a warning on Facebook that “The Kremlin is planning to carry out massive cyberattacks on the critical infrastructure of Ukrainian businesses.” and important infrastructure institutions of Ukraine’s allies. The attacks will target businesses in the energy sector.” But it notes that those can also be combined with physical attacks.
