Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to further consolidate his power at the twice-decade congress this fall. His picture is here on July 1, 2022, at the swearing-in ceremony of Hong Kong chief executive John Lee.
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BEIJING – China’s leaders are set to convene in Beijing on October 16 for a major political meeting expected to strengthen the President Xi Jinpingstrength and signals of upcoming economic policy.
This year’s meeting takes on more significance as it becomes a widely watched marker for when China may begin to relax its strict zero Covid policy.
The The Communist Party of China’s top leaders is expected to propose that the party will hold its 20th National Congress of Deputies on October 16 in Beijing, state media announced on Tuesday.
It is “the most important political event of the decade in China,” Citi analysts wrote in a note last week.
“The congress is set to kick off a new political-economic cycle,” the Citi report said. “In the short term, it could help reduce policy uncertainty and allow Beijing to refocus on economic development.”
The national congress is held every five years and is primarily a political event to determine the next leadership group for the ruling party.
Xi is likely to increase the share of his political associates at the top two levels of China’s leadership, according to Eurasia Group, which, according to Eurasia Group, predicts the majority of his political associates holding seats in the leadership. The Politburo will increase to 80% from 60% and increase to 57% from 43% in the Standing Politburo.
“The majority of Xi’s associates in these agencies would support the Eurasia Group’s view that rising economic hardship and rising cross-strait tensions have not undermined his authority, coming mainly from command of authoritarian political institutions such as the military, security services, and the law, according to a report dated August 18.
“The reduction in representation of Xi’s associates would indicate internal resistance to his rule,” they point out.
Xi has risen in the political ranks of China officially became president in 2013. He abolished term limits in 2018, and the latest political turmoil is expected to grant him an unprecedented third term.
Premier Li Keqiang, second in command, said he would The prime minister’s term ends in 2022. Other possible changes include leaders on foreign policy.
“The congress will carefully consider the current international and domestic situation,” an official statement in English said.
The meeting will “form basic policies and action plans”, the statement said.
However, details of decisions made at the party congress are likely not to be formalized until the so-called “two-session” annual parliamentary meeting, which usually takes place in early March.
End in sight for zero-Covid?
The congress scheduled for mid-October sets a tentative date for when China may relax its so-called zero-motivation policy.
“We expect the zero Covid policy to be revised after the October meeting, which will help the economy normalize,” Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note. one note.
While much of the world has relaxed most of its Covid containment measures, Beijing’s effort to maintain a policy of little or no Covid transmission has restricted domestic business and kept national borders open. closed for more than two years.
Citi analysts say the ruling party could even “push China’s reconnection”[ion] to the difficult world as soon as it decides to escape [dynamic zero-Covid] to regain lost political capital. “
However, growth is expected to remain sluggish for the time being.
“We expect the road to China’s economic recovery will be a slogan because local governments have the ability [to] Be cautious about easing business restrictions ahead of the 20th Party Congress due to concerns about the resurgence of COVID,” said Wei Li, senior China economist at Standard Chartered and research team. in a note dated 8/15.
The company cut its China full-year GDP forecast from 4.1% to 3.3%. Other banks have repeatedly cut their expectations to similar levels – much lower than the country’s official target of around 5.5%.
The slump in China’s massive property sector and slowing global demand – which affects exports – create additional drags to growth.
China’s Q3 GDP will be released on October 18.
– Jihye Lee of CNBC contributed to this report.
