Myanmar military leader Min Aung Hlaing is making his first visit to China since he overthrow the elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021.
the the significant losses his regime suffered during the civil war at the hands of poorly armed rebels raised questions about how long he would remain at the helm.
Therefore, the invitation to visit China – Myanmar’s ally, important neighbor and largest trading partner – is very meaningful even though this is not a state visit.
China’s approval of his disastrous handling of the post-coup chaos in Myanmar is far from clear, but it does suggest that Beijing sees him as an essential part of the solution for the conflict there.
Leading a large delegation of officials and businessmen, Min Aung Hlaing on Tuesday arrived in Kunming, a city in Yunnan province that shares a long border with Myanmar.
He was attending a small summit of countries in the region known as the Greater Mekong Subregion.
The beleaguered leader has become an isolated figure since the coup, and has been shunned by regional gatherings often attended by Burmese leaders.
The few foreign trips he has made since 2021 have been mainly to Russia, now his staunch ally.
During the visit, he is expected to meet with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who chairs the summit. But otherwise, this was a low-level affair, attended by heads of government from other authoritarian governments in the region, such as Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam.
China has always attached great importance to the symbolic importance of diplomatic protocol and will be aware of the signal sent by Min Aung Hlaing’s presence at a meeting hosted by China.
This is important, after the perception over the past year that China may be preparing to wash its hands of Min Aung Hlaing, as the civil war becomes increasingly costly for Beijing.
the Ethnic rebel alliances inflicted the greatest defeats about Myanmar’s military operating along the border with China and launching an offensive a year ago with the declared goal of shutting down fraud centers that have victimized thousands of Chinese citizens.
Many believe that China, frustrated by the government’s refusal to act, gave the rebels the green light to move in and do so.
Since then, however, China has tried to contain the rebels to prevent a complete collapse of the military regime in Nay Pyi Daw.
Beijing is known to be pushing Min Aung Hlaing to set a timetable for elections to end military rule. They want cross-border trade restored and China’s ambitious investment plans in Myanmar protected.
Many groups opposing the military takeover in Myanmar have vowed never to negotiate with the coup leaders. They argued that the military should be permanently removed from Burmese politics and placed under civilian control, and a new federal political system established.
The National Unity Government (NUG), which represents the elected government ousted by the coup, has objected to the tacit recognition given to the government by China’s invitation to Min Aung Hlaing this week.
NUG spokesman Kyaw Zaw said: “The people of Myanmar want stability, peace and economic growth. It is Min Aung Hlaing and his group that are destroying these things.”
“I’m concerned that [the visit] will unintentionally incite misunderstandings about the Chinese government among the Myanmar public.”
But the opposition is still far from defeating the regime and China fears that if the regime falls, even worse chaos could ensue as different armed groups vie for power. force.
It seems that China is willing to cooperate with the authorities, despite the military regime’s brutal record and incompetence.
And for now, it’s all about China-led diplomacy because Western influence is negligible.
India, Myanmar’s other giant neighbor, is mainly concerned with local border issues.
And the efforts of ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, of which Myanmar is a member – essentially the five-point consensus agreed to with Min Aung Hlaing just three months after his coup – went nowhere.
Only China has the commitment and influence to make a reasonable effort to end the civil war in Myanmar.
