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China Sets Cautious Growth Target Amid Global Uncertainty


Xi Jinping continues his long march. After a turbulent year ended in growth slows down, widespread protestsAnd increase the number of deaths After China abruptly abandoned Covid control measures, China’s top leader is poised to secure even more power at the annual meeting of the national legislature opening on Sunday. Japan.

At the start of the National People’s Congress, the Chinese government laid out a post-Covid agenda focused on economic recovery with a target of 5% growth, increased military spending, education and social needs, while increasing Xi’s formidable influence.

The nearly 3,000 delegates were carefully selected to the legislature, who will meet for nine days in Beijing, will appoint a new government leadership group made up of Xi loyalists at the end of the congress. They are also expected to approve redeployment of bureaucracy that will further focus on policymaking under Xi and the party.

“Xi is back, and he wastes no time conceiting to give himself more power,” said Willy Wo-Lam, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation who studies Chinese politics. Mr. Xi and other leaders have calculated that they can pull back on Covid’s control measures – and endure a wave of what may have happened. one million or more deaths Mr Lam said:

“The leadership has made a big bet on this pandemic policy,” Lam said, “and this gamble, at least on the surface, has paid off politically so far, despite all deaths in the first month of the pandemic. reverse.”

Military delegates inside the Great Hall of the People on Sunday.Credit…Ng Han Guan / Associated Press

Since the collapse of the strict “no Covid” policy in December, China’s leadership has shifted its focus to restoring growth and creating jobs, seeking to reassure private businesses that they are a important part of the national economy.

The question for China is whether Mr. Xi can ignite economic confidence, especially with private investors, while continuing to expand the Communist Party’s control over the country, as he signaled that he would.

“Basically, he didn’t give up on his original goal; it was a temporary tactical retreat.” Minxin Pei, a professor at Claremont McKenna College who studies Chinese politics, said in an interview. “But to get the real economy back on track, he needs to convince the skeptics that he is now for real.”

Xi also wants to elevate China to an advanced technological superpower capable of paring Washington, a vision he now calls “Chinese-style modernization.” In a recent speech, he suggested that any pragmatic shift in policy should not be seen as a departure from those grand goals.

“We have to focus on the big issues related to the ups and downs, the success and failure, of the party and the country, and that can shake things up with the touch of a finger,” he said. told a meeting of newly promoted party officials last month. “We need to organically combine strategic principles with tactical flexibility.”

Visitors at the Temple of Heaven park in Beijing last month.Credit…Andy Wong/Associate Press

In a sign that Beijing is concerned about challenges in economic recovery, Premier Li Keqiang said China would aim to expand growth “about 5%” this year, a target relatively modest spending. Exports have faltered this winter due to sluggish global demand, while it is unclear whether Chinese consumers can help sustain the recovery and weak business confidence.

“Uncertainties in the external environment are increasing,” he told the congress. “At home, the foundation for steady growth needs to be strengthened, insufficient demand remains a clear problem, and expectations of private and corporate investors are volatile.”

Many economists see 3%, China’s official growth rate last year, as an overstatement of the real performance of the economy, which has been strangled by strict “nothing” measures. have Covid” and blockade due to the spreading pandemic.

After a dismal December, the economy showed signs of recovery. Shopping malls are crowded again, factory operations are accelerating at the fastest rate for more than a decade.

The patient came to the emergency room of a hospital in Shanghai in January.Credit…Qilai Shen for The New York Times

Li Bin, a 35-year-old technician in Tianjin, said during a lunchtime riverside walk on Friday that he had barely dared to leave the house for the past three years except for work. But in recent weeks, he says, “I’ve saved less, felt freer, ate more, hung out more, and got back to my normal activities.”

To help restore economic growth, China has eased efforts to curb property developers, having high levels of debt is seen as a risk to the broader economy. The government has signaled that the regulatory crackdown on Big Tech has hit its mark.

Seeking to reduce tensions with the United States, Xi held talks with President Biden in November to stem the country’s slide toward a new cold war. But the relationship has only deteriorated since then. Beijing made little concessions after the Biden administration accused it of flying spy balloons over the United States. Last month, Washington accused Beijing of considering sending lethal weapons to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, a claim Chinese officials have denied.

Beijing sees the US as trying to contain China’s rise, but it doesn’t want the rivalry with Washington to spiral out of control, says Chao Chun-shana Taiwanese political science professor recently visited China and meeting with high-ranking Chinese officials.

“Almost everyone I meet tells me that the United States will not allow a powerful China to take its side, especially in the Indo-Pacific region,” Professor Chao said. Their strategy, he added, is: “Compete without falling into a rift.”

Production of semiconductor packaging materials at a factory in eastern China last month.Credit…Agence France-Presse – Getty Images

In a sign of Beijing’s importance in asserting its position in the world, the government also plans to increase the military budget by 7.2%, which would increase spending by nearly 7.2 percent. $225 billion, despite the strains that could be imposed on state finances. Spending on the state department and other diplomatic efforts will grow even faster, 12.2%.

Xi also called on his party to take a more pragmatic approach in developing the country’s scientific and technological capacity to reduce dependence on Western expertise. This directive has become more urgent when US tightens export restrictions to China.

Xi also sees the expansion and consolidation of his power as necessary to ensure China’s ascent in an increasingly dangerous world.

The congress will almost certainly award him a groundbreaking third term as president, on top of his primary title of Communist Party chief. And Xi will also use the congress to reorganize ministries and state agencies, to focus more on policymaking around him and the party.

At the Great Hall of the People on Sunday.Credit…Noel Celis/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Scholars have said that the The plan could include a new homeland security commission that would integrate police and state security agencies, reflecting Mr. Xi’s emphasis on a state of national security.

China’s police and state security forces have come under tight control by the Communist Party, and Xi has also established a National Security Committee to help quell threats, especially to challenges to the Communist Party’s power. However, the new Homeland Security committee may try to bring greater coherence to this set of agencies.

That would add more political power behind Xi’s obsession with China, said Neil Thomas, a fellow soon to be a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. immunizing the Communist Party from domestic and foreign threats to its rule”. .

On Sunday, the capital, Beijing, is the showcase of the government’s dual agendas to restore normalcy and maintain tight control. Visitors have flocked back to the city since Covid restrictions ended, flooding tourist sites, including Tiananmen Square, next to the Great Hall of the People where the founding meeting took place. France.

But on Sunday, police officers closed many of the subway exits that opened onto the square, forcing visitors to wait in long lines to check their identification. Upon arriving at the square, some discovered that only those who had made a reservation were allowed in – a withholding policy from the Covid era. Disappointed, they leave.

Amy Chang Chien And Li You contribute reports and research.

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