Elections in Japan are usually steady and boring.
This snap election is no different.
The dramatic vote follows a political funding corruption scandal revealed last year, involving senior lawmakers of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and cabinet members , tarnishing the party’s image and angering the public.
Voters showed their anger in this election and sent a strong message to the LDP, punishing them at the ballot box.
By best estimates, the LDP, in power almost continuously since 1955, has lost its sole party majority in the country’s powerful House of Representatives.
The LDP also lost its majority in the ruling coalition. Its junior coalition partner Komeito lost several seats, including the leader’s, meaning that even with its partner, the LDP was still unable to reach the 233 seats it needed for a majority. number.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba took a political gamble and it backfired.
He and the LDP underestimated the level of people’s anger and, more importantly, their willingness to act on it.
But this is the perfect storm – one corruption scandal saw dozens of ruling party lawmakers investigated for pocketing millions in proceeds from political fundraising events, while Japanese households struggled with inflation, prices are high, wages are stagnant and the economy is stagnant.
To maintain power, the LDP will now need to form a coalition with the other parties it just fought in the election, and it will do so from a position of significant weakness. That means the country must enter negotiations and make concessions to survive.
It’s hard to overstate how rare this is. The LDP has always had a safe and stable position in Japanese politics.
The ruling party has a good record of governance – and when the opposition took power in 1993 and 2009, for three years each, it ended badly.
Since the LDP returned to power in 2012, the party has won election after election virtually unopposed. There has long been resignation to the status quo, the opposition has yet to convince public opinion.
“I think we (Japanese) are very conservative,” Miyuki Fujisaki, 66, told me a few days before the election.
“It is very difficult for us to challenge and create change. And when the ruling party changes once (and the opposition takes over), in the end nothing really changes, which is why we tend to stay conservative,” she added.
Ms. Fujisaki told me she was not sure who to vote for this time, especially with the fundraising corruption scandal engulfing the LDP. But since she always votes for the LDP, she will do the same in this election.
The results of this election tell a larger story about the state of Japanese politics: A ruling party that has dominated for decades and an opposition party that has failed to unite and emerge as a viable alternative. exam when the public needs it.
In this election, the LDP lost its majority. But no one really wins.
Japan’s ruling party has been beaten at the ballot box – but the blow is not so great as to be dismissed.
Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies, told the BBC that although voters want to hold their politicians accountable through elections, “in the minds of voters there really isn’t anyone else” but they still believe in leadership.
In this election, the largest party of the opposition – the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) – won significant victories. But observers say these results have less to do with voters’ support for the opposition than they do with voter anger at the LDP.
“This election seems to be about voters who are fed up with a party and politicians they see as corrupt and dirty. But that’s not where they want a new leader,” Mr. Hall said.
What Japan suffers from is a weakened ruling party and a fragmented opposition.
Japan has long been seen as a symbol of political stability – a safe haven for investors and a trusted diplomatic partner in an increasingly unstable Asia Pacific region.
This political chaos in Japan is not only worrying for its people but also for its neighbors and allies.
No matter how much power the LDP gains, it will be weakened and bound by coalition concessions.
The task of turning the economy around, creating coherent policies on wages and benefits, and maintaining overall political stability will not be easy.
It is much more difficult to regain the trust and respect of a public weary of politics.
