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Challenges of high fertility, rapidly growing population – Global issues

Promoting children’s primary and lower secondary education, especially for girls, will significantly contribute to development efforts and facilitate demographic transition. . Credit: Joyce Chimbi / IPS
  • Idea by Joseph Chamie (portland, usa)
  • Associated Press Service

In 2020 thirty six countries, including 30 of the United Nations’ develop at least countries with fertility rates above 4 births per woman (Figure 1). The total population of those three dozen countries in 2020 amounts to almost 1 billion won people, or approximately 12 percent of the world’s total population of nearly 8 billion.

By 2058 when the world population is expected to reach 10 billion won, the total population of those 36 high fertility countries is expected to more than double to more than 2 billion. Their total population will account for about 22% of the projected world population by 2058.

Among the countries with high fertility, ten of them, all least developed countries, except Nigeria, have a fertility rate of 5 times or more per woman in 2020. More , half of which have six or more births per woman. The highest rate is Niger with almost 7 births per woman (Figure 1).

The high birth rates of those ten countries are contributing to their rapidly growing populations. For example, the populations of all ten countries are projected to at least double by 2058. Therefore, the combined populations of those ten countries are expected to increase from 419 million in 2020 to 970 million by 2058, or from about 5% of the world’s population to 10 percent.

The largest population of those ten countries is Nigeria. Its population is expected to grow from 208 million in 2020 to 419 million in 2058. Due to that rapid demographic increase, Nigeria is expected to move from the world’s seventh largest population. world by 2020 to the third largest population by mid-century.

Additionally, the population of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is expected to nearly triple between 2020 and 2058, increasing from 93 million to 257 million. However, of the 36 countries with high fertility, Niger is expected to experience the fastest demographic growth over the next few decades. Niger’s population of 24 million in 2020 is predicted to more than triple to 83 million by 2058.

An important consequence of the high birth rate is the young population structure. Half or more of the population of the ten highest fertility countries are children under the age of 18. Furthermore, in 5 of those countries, the median age of the population was 15 years or younger (Figure 2).

The 36 rapidly growing young population is facing a multitude of challenges. Besides facing high levels of poverty, these countries are also facing serious difficulties in reducing hunger, providing basic education, providing decent employment and employment opportunities, promote women’s rights, provide health care and reduce inequality. Furthermore, many of them are among the countries with Human Development Index.

In some of those countries, the majority of the adult population is illiterate. For example, illiteracy rate accounts for more than 60% of the adult population in Benin, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Chad, Guinea, Mali, Niger and South Sudan.

In addition, many learn reported that Africa may be the most vulnerable continent to the effects of climate change. The effect is particularly pronounced in sub-Saharan countries due to rising temperatures, variable rainfall, extreme weather and increasing natural disasters. For many rapidly developing countries, those impacts have serious risk to water and food systems, public health, agriculture, employment, socioeconomic development, and population displacement.

Three dozen rapidly growing populations are in the wrong direction to meet Sustainable Development Target 2 end hunger, ensure access to safe, nutritious and adequate food year round, and end all forms of malnutrition. Since 2012, the number of undernourished people in drought-affected sub-Saharan African countries has increased 46 percent.

In some African countries with high fertility, ratio highly malnourished. For example, the percentage of the Somali population that is undernourished is 60%, followed by the Central African Republic at 48% and the Democratic Republic of the Congo at 42%.

Climate change is also contributing to the mass displacement of people in these countries due to heat waves, droughts and crop failures. Seeking relief from difficult living circumstances, many people move from rural areas to big cities.

In addition, a large number of men and women in these rapidly developing countries are seeking to migrate legally and illegally to other countries. Their favorite destinations are the countries of North America and Europe.

For example, in the most populous African country, Nigeria, about half of its population of more than 200 million people who want to emigrate to another country. Taller ratio want to resettle abroad is the population of Sierra Leone and Liberia, 71 and 66% respectively.

It is clear that three dozen high fertility, rapidly growing populations are facing economic, social and environmental challenges. There is no simple and quick fix to address many of those challenges, which are projected to become more daunting in the coming decades.

However, it is certainly the case that many of those rapidly growing populations will benefit from international assistance, financial support and technical expertise. Contributions from the international community, aid agencies and financial institutions will facilitate economic development, employment opportunities and social progress as well as hunger eradication, malnutrition and poverty in those countries.

An important step in addressing those development challenges is to address the demographic transitions in those countries, which will lead to lower rates of population growth. Simply put, development efforts among rapidly growing populations should emphasize the transition from high birth rates to low birth rates.

Finally, as is the case in regions around the world, the promotion of children’s primary and secondary education, especially for girls, will contribute significantly to efforts development as well as facilitate the demographic transition. Those efforts should be augmented with the provision of basic health care, including the widespread availability of family planning information, methods and services.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Birth, Death, Migration and Other Important Population Issues. “

© Inter Press Service (2022) – All rights reservedOrigin: Inter Press Service

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