DAKAR, Senegal – Chad’s military government and more than 40 rebel groups signed a ceasefire on Monday in Qatar, paving the way for reconciliation talks later this month as the central African nation seeks way out of a troublesome political transition.
But the signing of the deal, after five months of negotiations, was overshadowed by the absence of Chad’s most powerful armed group, which refused to join the accord, making any prospect of a return to stability all the more bleak. sure.
After Chad’s longtime autocratic ruler, Idriss Déby, died while fighting the rebels last April, his son General Mahamat Idriss Déby came to power and vowed to lead the country. during the transitional 18 months.
With less than two months left in that transition period, Mr. Déby’s military government and rebel groups are negotiating in Doha, Qatar, what will happen next. On Monday, after nearly five months of negotiations, they agreed to hold national reconciliation talks later this month in Chadian capital N’Djamena, which would then pave the way for democratic elections. .
But the absence between the signatories of one of Chad’s main rebel groups, the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT, by its French initials), dented the outcome of the negotiations. coming into doubt. While visiting the army against TRUTH, Mr. Déby killed last yearaccording to the Chadian military authorities.
On Sunday, the group’s spokesman speak The accord fails to honor key demands such as the immediate release of prisoners and parity between the government and opposition groups in upcoming reconciliation talks.
The deal could therefore bring some temporary stability, but any lasting peace is unlikely, said Remadji Hoinathy, a Chadian political analyst based in N’Djamena.
“Some of the protagonists have long understood that the only way to have a frank discussion in Chad is to launch an armed uprising,” said Hoinathy, an analyst with the Institute for Security Studies.
Even as a broad mix of political parties, rebel groups and the military government are set to convene in N’Djamena this month, Mr. Hoinathy said, “Those who don’t sign the accord also have You can invite yourself into the conversation – but through a weapon.”
Mamadou Djimtebaye, a political journalist in Chadian, says that scenario may have been true years ago, but not anymore. “It’s an old framework – people won’t let it happen,” he said. “They want an election, and both the government and the FACT understand that.”
Issa Ahmat, a spokeswoman for FACT, said any resolution from the mediation talks would likely benefit the government. But he says violence is not on the table. “We have not closed the door to dialogue,” Mr Ahmat said in a phone interview.
The presence of countless groups in Doha – more than 50, with nearly 10 of them rejecting the accord – highlights the important role they have played in Chad since the country’s independence from France in 1960. The country’s history is characterized by military dictatorship and repetition. attempts to seize power by such groups, often operating from neighboring Libya or Sudan.
Besides the ceasefire, the agreement signed on Monday includes a disarmament program; amnesty and safe return of rebels outside Chad; the end of recruitment by rebel groups; and the release of prisoners on both sides.
Alliance of Resistance Forces, tried to overthrow the eldest brother Mr. Deby in 2019 by send a column of fighters in 50 pickups from Libya – only to be hit back by French air raids – signed the accord. But another powerful group, the Military Command Council for Salvation of the Republic, rejected the pledge.
Now, as the transition period is likely to exceed the 18-month deadline, the Chadians are increasingly frustrated with the authorities.
In May, supporters of the country’s main political opposition group, Wakit Tama, were arrested following protests against the military government. They also denounced the French presence in the country and its support for military leaders, sparking anti-French sentiment in the former French colonies.
France has long considered Chad, a country of 17 million people, as a strategic partner in the Sahel region. France’s counter-terrorism operation, Operation Barkhane, has been headquartered in N’Djamena since its operation in 2014.
But critics have pointed out a French double standard. In Mali, undeterred by the military leaders who took power in a coup last year, Chad’s government has been more agreeable, despite Mr. Déby’s takeover following the death of his father. is also unconstitutional.
Human rights organizations have also be censured Mr. Déby for a widespread crackdown on peaceful protests and the arrest of hundreds of opposition members and supporters.
“Chad’s significant military commitments in the fight against terrorism mean that the international community feels comfortable turning a blind eye to serious human rights abuses in the country,” said Human Rights Watch Director. responsible for Central Africa, Lewis Mudge, Written in April.
Chad’s troubled history has been marked by a number of peace agreements similar to those signed on Monday, which Mr Hoinathy said often yielded limited results.
“Key groups are lacking, but the government’s plan may not have all of them as signatories,” said Jérôme Tubiana, an independent expert on Chad. He continued, “Instead, it may have tried to avoid negotiations between the government on the one hand and all the groups together.”
“If the government has a divide-and-conquer strategy, the government wins.”
