Emissions data released on Thursday contained some good news. Annual carbon dioxide emissions due to deforestation and changes in land use appear to have decreased over the past two decades, to about 3.9 billion tons by 2022. When that number is included, the total emissions Humanity’s carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and land use have remained nearly constant since 2015.
Part of the story, the researchers say, is that forests appear to be being expanded or restored in many regions, such as on abandoned farmland in Europe. As those trees grow, they absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. That has helped offset a small fraction of emissions from deforestation, which remain high in places like Brazil, Indonesia and Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Julia Pongratz, a geographer at the University of Munich who worked on the report, said there is still a lot of uncertainty around land use emissions and it is too early to say whether the trend will be strong. . While it is relatively simple to count the amount of oil, gas and coal that countries are burning, it is much harder to estimate the amount of carbon dioxide actually released when farmers clear rainforests or burn fossil fuels. peatland.
Under the 2015 Paris agreement, world leaders agreed to limit total global warming to “below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), compared with pre-industrial levels and strong efforts to keep warming by 1.5 degrees Celsius. The world has warmed by 1.1 degrees Celsius and scientists warn that with each addition of a levelTens of millions more people worldwide will experience life-threatening heat waves, food and water shortages.
New data suggests that time is running out to reach those goals. The researchers found that if emissions were to remain stable at 2022 levels, the world would likely put carbon into the atmosphere above 1.5 degrees Celsius within nine years and 2 degrees Celsius in the next nine years. within 30 years.
Pierre Friedlingstein, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter who helped lead the study, said: “In our current process, without massive cuts in emissions, we’ll be exhausted. his remaining carbon budget very quickly.
