Once an additional pick in the first round, Riley quickly became one of the organization’s top prospects. He hit the big leagues not long after his 22nd birthday in 2019. Riley had his ups and downs during the first few seasons of his major league career, particularly when he scored in over 36% of appearances as a rookie. However, Atlanta has stuck with him despite that initial inconsistency, and they have been rewarded since Riley exploded onto the scene last year.
He appeared in 160 games, breaking 33 home runs with the line .303/.367/.531. That marks a climax in a long playing career so far, but that marker won’t be his best form for much longer. He’s connected with 29 host players in 436 appearances this season and he’s totaled .301/.360/.604. Riley’s pure cut hasn’t changed much from 2021 to 222, but the slight improvement in his bottom line comes at a time when league-wide offense has plummeted. By measuring wRC+, Riley’s attack output jumped from an already excellent 35 points above average to an impressive 63 points above.
Among the qualified giants, only Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Rafael Devers and Mike Trout got better wRC+ this season. That’s bolstered by batting stats rather than placing Riley among the game’s elite racquets. His 93.7 MPH average exit rate is 5 MPH above the league average. His 55.9% hard contact rate is also among the best in the league, as is his 17.6% barrel rate. Simply put, few hitters hit the ball as hard as Riley usually does.
Of course, Riley’s authority was never really questioned. His issue earlier in his career was contact, but the Mississippi native has made great strides in that regard. After touching the ball only 63% of the time as a rookie, Riley has held the ball about 73% of the time in each of the last three seasons. That wasn’t great, but it was more than enough for a player with his power production ability. Riley still has a positive approach and goes out of the attacking zone reasonably well, but his superb batting results make up for a walk rate that can always be a bit below the rate. average walk.
Back at the beginning of 2021, Riley owned the number of slashes .302 / .364 / .560 after less than 1100 appearances on the number plate. He looks like a great slugger, and the Braves are certainly happy to trap him in the middle of the roster for the next decade. Riley won the Silver Slugger Award and placed seventh in the NL MVP poll last year, and he claimed the first of what the club predicts will be many All-Star nods. top this season.
The Braves have now committed to taking 75% of their internals over the long term. Atlanta signed Matt Olson to an eight-year $168 million deal within days of getting him from Athletics in spring training. Previously they had Ozzie Albies contracted at a reasonable cost through 2025 (with club options for 2026 and ’27). Those leaves Dansby Swanson as the only member of the Atlanta internals not under contract for the foreseeable future, as the short leg is set to reach free agency later this year.
Atlanta also has Ronald Acuña Jr. under contract for most of the decade, giving them a young player at the core to build on. According to Jason Martinez’s estimate of Squad Resources, the club’s 2023 payroll increases to approximately $113 million (excluding wages for referee-eligible players). They cost about $87 million for 2024 and between $60 million and $70 million for the next two years. Atlanta’s 2022 payroll, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, is franchise file 177.7 million dollars. That will give them the flexibility to re-sign or replace Swanson, especially since key contributors like Michael Harris II, Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider and Ian Anderson won’t reach umpire until at least 2024. It’s a solid long-term position for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff as they look to build on last year’s World Series title. and build a long-term gymnasium.
Like ESPN’s Buster Olney points out, Riley’s Extension Goes Down is the largest investment in Atlanta franchise history. This is the second major extension ever for a player with two to three years of MLB service, just behind By Fernando Tatis Jr. 14 years, $340 million megadeal. Among the other players in that service group, only the future Hall of Famers Mike Trout and Buster Posey signed deals that even topped nine figures. It’s therefore a strong gesture of trust on the part of the organization, but it also has the potential to turn out to be a bargain. Riley’s flat $22 million salary for seven seasons as a free agent would be a very team-friendly number, with players of his caliber often approaching or peaking at $30 million per year. years in free agency contracts.
That is the essence of the initial career expansion. Riley sacrifices some increased long-term income for a pre-assured, and he will get a little more in 2023 than he would have conducted through arbitration. Riley came to referee for the first time last winter as a Super Two player and received a salary of $3.95 million. An MVP-sized performance will get him a significant raise next winter, but next year’s salary will certainly still not reach the $15 million mark. By paying a little more up front, the Braves give themselves more long-term flexibility with a fixed base salary for most contracts afterward.
While it’s not an outside pick-up, Riley’s extension will most likely come down as the Braves’ biggest move of the season. They have committed to providing yet another star young player to strengthen the long-term core with which they will be a consistent competitor in the NL East for many years to come.
