Bitcoin traders prepare for fierce price swings as the clock ticks down on the US vote
Bitcoin speculators are bracing for potentially sharp market volatility after Election Day in the US on Tuesday.
The largest digital asset’s 30-day implied volatility measure has hit its highest level since global markets plunged in August. The index is compiled by CF Benchmarks Ltd., sourced from CME Group Bitcoin options pricing.
The options market also signaled expected moves of about 8% in both directions the day after the vote, compared with a typical gain or loss of 2% on a normal day. Caroline Mauronco-founder of Orbit Markets, a liquidity provider for cryptocurrency derivatives trading.
“No significant volatility premiums were priced in after November 7, suggesting the market expected a fairly quick resolution,” Mauron added. “This may appear optimistic given how tight the race is showing.”
The contest between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is winding down, leaving investors across asset classes to brace for market volatility. During the campaign, Trump took a clear pro-crypto stance, while Harris, taking a measured approach, pledged support for a regulatory framework for digital assets.
Trump Trade
Both views stirred optimism in the crypto community, in contrast to the industry crackdown under President Joe Biden. But Trump’s tight grip on the sector has turned Bitcoin into one of the so-called Trump trades.
The former president’s lead over Harris in the betting market helped lift Bitcoin to near a record high a week ago but his odds have declined since then, pushing the token lower. The poll shows a finished picture, although there are also some encouraging signs for Harris in the final stretch survey about voter intentions.
According to a report from Origin.xyza trading venue focused on cryptocurrency derivatives.
In the weeks following the election, data from exchange Deribit suggested a possible trading range of $60,000 to $80,000 based on peak open interest – or outstanding contracts – respectively for bearish bets. prices and price increases.
Bitcoin rose nearly $69,000 as of 9 a.m. Monday in London. Digital assets have reached a point highest of all time was $73,798 in March, supported by inflows into dedicated US exchange-traded funds. The original cryptocurrency is up more than 60% so far in 2024, outperforming assets like stocks and gold.
