Bird flu began to spread among humans, as health officials struggled to protect people and livestock

Those warnings proved prophetic. And the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) now finds itself not only trying to contain the spread of the virus but also keep pace with testing methods that most American farmers oppose .

The question now is whether new interventions can stop mass human-to-human transmission of this strain because for some experts it is only a matter of time.

Robert Redfield, former director of the CDC, bluntly predicted: “We will have an avian flu pandemic” television interview in June. “It’s not a matter of if; the question is when… Once the virus has the ability to attach to human receptors and then transmit from person to person, that’s when you have a pandemic.”

ONE CDC research released Thursday did not alleviate those concerns. The report found that a significant proportion of H5N1 infections went undetected in dairy workers working on farms whose cows tested positive for the virus last summer. Of 115 farm workers whose blood was tested in Michigan and Colorado, eight had evidence of recent infection in the form of antibodies – but only half of them recalled having symptoms. “Officials said all eight people were either milking cows or cleaning milking machines.

Among other things, those results suggest that many more American farmworkers may be or have been infected with the virus without knowing it — all the more reason, experts say, for health authorities to Federal and state health services are actively providing testing and strengthening personal protection. equipment (PPE) for people wearing boots on the ground on U.S. dairy and poultry farms.

“This generally confirms what we know: There are more people infected on farms than the official number. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, said the serum proves it. “That’s why so many of us want more aggressive serological testing on farms, to understand the extent of infection and better understand the risks the virus poses (there).”

In one press conference on Thursday, CDC deputy director Nirav Shah said that nothing in the new data “raises concerns about human-to-human transmission,” adding that the agency believes the virus still poses only a low risk to the public.

However, in the UK, government officials have raised the risk level of the avian flu virus from medium to high. And in the US, the number of human H5N1 cases in California and Washington is is increasing. Nationwide, 46 Human cases have been documented and confirmed during the 2024 outbreak, which included one person in Missouri unknown exposure to livestock or poultry, the two main sources of exposure to date. All of these people experienced only mild symptoms, such as conjunctivitis or cough, and none required hospitalization.

From the outset of this year’s H5N1 spread, federal and state agencies struggled to conduct adequate testing on farms and among farm workers. The reasons are many, but they include the fact that farmers fear curtailing operations if positive cases are identified and many migrant workers do not want to come into contact with any government officials let alone having to have a blood test or risk having to work. stay home from work and not get paid if they test positive.

CDC does not have the authority to mandate testing, but discover Asymptomatic cases or cases so mild as to be imperceptible may be possible prompted stronger recommendations from the agency and local health authorities, even if those who have long studied avian flu and other similar viruses were not shocked to learn that a Some people do not know they are infected.

Richard Webby, an infectious disease researcher at St. “I don’t think any of it is particularly surprising,” said Jude in Memphis and director of the World Health Organization’s Collaborating Center for Research on Influenza Ecology in Animals and Animals. Bird.

Webby notes that with most infectious diseases, but especially for diseases of a respiratory nature, asymptomatic infections are “completely predictable.” But the ability of H5N1 to spread silently from people who don’t realize they are infected can pose its own problems. And while there has been no record of human-to-human transmission, experts fear the worst if and when it happens.

“I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that H5N1 will be the cause of the next pandemic, but certainly future avian flu viruses will be the cause,” Adalja said. “And I think we have to get this problem resolved. Even if it doesn’t cause a pandemic, we still want to think of this as a trial run—and we’re not doing really great things, from a trial run perspective, with this virus.”

The CDC recommended Thursday that farm workers with significant avian flu exposure be tested for H5N1 whether or not they experience symptoms, a measure that could be important as the traditional flu season begins and It becomes more difficult to separate one virus from another. “The best way to limit the space for the virus to spread is to test, identify, treat and isolate as many human cases as possible and as quickly as possible,” Shah said.

The agency also wants the antiviral drug Tamiflu to be given to workers at high risk of exposure to animals infected with H5N1, especially those not wearing full PPE. Finally, the agency updated its recommendations to prioritize more PPE for people participating in higher-risk activities, such as those working in milking parlors or in other activities. poultry destruction.

The California Department of Public Health has PPE distributed to dairy farms and their workers, as well as several other states. But like other health authorities, they cannot force workers to wear them. Anecdotally, it’s a problem across the country, as workers often stay away from the equipment in hot, stuffy conditions.

In a separate place report On Thursday, dairy farm workers in Colorado confirmed that the hot, humid environment in milking parlors can make wearing respirators and masks uncomfortable. Especially during the summer months, that could result in fewer workers being protected. And even among those wearing masks, deterioration of PPE is not uncommon when workers are near contaminated milk or animal feces.

It creates a dangerous combination of situations: often unprotected workers labor near infected dairy cows, where the route of infection can be as simple as being splashed with contaminated milk. during milking. Researchers say that’s exactly why health authorities need to double down on education and supply of PPE.

“It can be difficult to use this much PPE,” Webby said. “But I think messaging (is important), so at least at-risk individuals understand that there is a risk and understand that their PPE can help protect them. Even if it’s something they can’t wear regularly, it’s better than nothing. And texting is key.”

Such messages were largely absent in the early months as H5N1 spread to American dairy and poultry farms earlier this year. At one point in June, Agriculture Secretary Thomas Vilsack reportedly told bird flu scientific experts that “It will spontaneously combust,” according to the report. Vanity fair.

Now, health officials and the agencies they direct are working to find ways to protect both people and pets from an infectious virus. 446 dairy herds in 15 states and more 100 million birdsmainly commercial poultry, in addition to documented human cases. Bird flu reported Mortality rate 52% in Europe since 2002 is a grim reminder of the risks – and that only massively increased prevention, testing and treatment efforts will be effective, coupled with complete transparency. public opinion on the results of those efforts.

Adalja and some other experts do not believe that the H5N1 subtype circulating in US dairy cows is as serious in humans as other strains. However, “what is disturbing is the fact that this is something that is allowed to happen this way,” Adalja said. “This is something that many in our sector have been talking about being more aggressive for months.”

The clock is ticking louder.