Soldiers of the German Bundeswehr armed forces arrive on an armored vehicle at the NATO reinforced Forward Presence Combat Battalion in Lithuania in Rukla, Lithuania on February 17, 2022.
Petras Malukas | Afp | beautiful pictures
Tensions are growing in Europe’s former Soviet Baltic states that President Vladimir Putin may not stop at invading Ukraine, and may keep an eye on them.
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – the Baltic states located in northeastern Europe – are now members of the EU and NATO. However, in June 1940 they were invaded and occupied by the Soviet Union and after World War II were a part of the Soviet Union until its collapse in 1991 when they regained their independence.
Today, it is estimated that one million ethnic Russians still live in the Baltic region. It is a worry for the region, as Putin’s reasons for an invasion of Ukraine are “protect” the ethnic Russian people in the east of the country – a justification that is doubted and rejected by many experts in the area.
Many analysts see Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as an attempt to rebuild Russia’s lost Soviet empire, a devastation that Putin once described as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.” “.
Russia has also sought to bring other former Soviet republics into its sphere of influence, including Belarus and Georgia to the north and Moldova to the south, with varying degrees of success. There have been a number of anti-government protests in these countries over the years, most notably the pro-democracy revolutions in Ukraine in 2004 and 2013.
Currently, there are concerns in the Baltic states that Russia, having invaded a former Soviet Union territory, might go further and launch an attack on them.
European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis on Monday warned that the EU must take the threat from Russia seriously.
“If we don’t support Ukraine, then it won’t stop in Ukraine. It is clear that Putin is in a warlike mood right now and unfortunately it is very likely that this aggression will continue in other countries. other”. he said in an interview with Politico published Monday night.
In an apparent attempt to reassure the region, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken began a two-day tour of the Baltics on Monday, visiting Lithuania and Latvia on Monday and Estonia on Tuesday.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausea Appears To Press Blinken On More Collective NATO Action when speaking in a joint press conferencesaid that “deterrence is no longer enough, and we need more defense here … because otherwise it will be too late here, Minister. Putin will not stop in Ukraine; he will not stop.”
And the country’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said the West has a “collective duty and obligation” to help Ukraine, adding: “If you want to avoid a third world war. The choice is in our hands. I.”
Blinken responded by emphasizing that “the United States, along with all of its allies and partners, will defend every–every inch of NATO territory if it is attacked, and there is no doubt about that in the future.” anyone’s mind.”
However, he stressed that NATO does not intend to be aggressive and will not seek conflict.
Second Cold War?
Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics told CNBC on Tuesday that he was reassured about Blinken’s visit. He welcomed pledges of practical support, such as additional US troops in the region, and discussions on strengthening the country’s defense capabilities.
“It’s really important to have not only political statements but also facts,” he told “Squawk Box Europe.” “I feel the US is very supportive.”
During a press conference Monday, Rinkevics said that public opinion and decision-making by policymakers had changed regarding military deployments, noting that now “we need permanent garrison regularity of NATO troops, including American troops, on our land” – which he said. called before Russia invaded Ukraine.
On the day Russia invaded Ukraine (February 24), Biden ordered the deployment of an additional 7,000 US troops to Europe, and shifted forces already in Europe to NATO’s eastern flank, including to Latvia.
Asked if he was worried that Russia might use the defense of ethnic Russians as an excuse for further invasions, Rinkevics said there was a “huge difference” between Ukraine and the Baltics. , as they are part of NATO and the EU.
“If you look at the composition of Latvia, there is no other territory that is so densely populated,” he said. “Yes, there is a Russian minority, but there is a shift in the population that speaks Russian as we speak.”
However, Rinkevics said he fears that a second Cold War is brewing, with growing divisions between the West and Russia, and the countries within its sphere of influence. “The Iron Curtain is falling, Russia is disconnecting itself from the Western world… I think we’re in a very long situation here.”
‘Fighting war mood’
Although the Baltic states have been part of NATO and the EU since 2004, with all three of them using the euro as their currency, their geographical location makes them more vulnerable. hurt. Like Ukraine, they all share a border with Russia. Latvia and Lithuania also share a border with Russia’s ally Belarus, which is believed to be aiding Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.
Krista Viksnins, program assistant for the Transatlantic Security and Defense Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis, commented in an editorial last week that the Baltics have good cause for concern.
“All three [Baltic countries] successfully reintegrated into Europe. Now, however, they are at risk and must be among the top priorities of the West – Russia has expressed a desire to turn Ukraine into a vassal state through full-scale military action and may not stop his bloody campaigns,” Viksnins wrote.
“Just as Vladimir Putin made bloody threats against Ukraine before his unprovoked attack, he also threatened the Baltic states.”
It is an issue that was also raised by Dombrovskis of the European Commission in an interview on Monday.
“If you look at the escalation of Russian rhetoric and even the statements claiming Russia supports Belarus’ interests in accessing the Baltic Sea, and the growing anti-Baltic rhetoric – in Ukraine, that’s also the case. starting with increasingly anti-Ukrainian rhetoric,” he added.
Western officials all agree: Ukraine must be helped in its fight against Russia.
Latvian Foreign Minister Rinkevics said the West should support Ukraine “in any way we can,” while Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told CNBC on Monday that “any country have the means, should provide what is possible.”
