ISTANBUL – Fighting broke out on Tuesday between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the latest outbreak in their decades-long confrontation in the South Caucasus, killing about 100 service members and raising the prospect of rocketing dust. radiation from the war in Ukraine, spreading instability over a larger area.
Each side blamed the other for the fighting that broke out along their border early Tuesday, the worst escalation of hostilities between the two countries since the 2020 war, and the ceasefire announced by the United States. The Russian mediator ended the large-scale fighting.
The resurgence of conflict in Russia’s southern rim – and between the two former Soviet republics – has raised concerns about what Russian President Vladimir Putin of Russia, already free from humiliating defeats elegant in recent days in northeastern Ukraine, can do.
By 9 a.m. local time on Tuesday, Russia announced that it had brokered another ceasefire. But later in the day, US Secretary of State, Antony J. Blinken, said he was concerned that Moscow might try to “scramble” in the conflict to create a distraction from Ukraine.
The outbreak also poses a problem for the European Union, which over the summer has sent officials in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, frantically searching for additional supplies of natural gas to make up for the loss. loss of Russian imports. The bloc worked hard to secure a peace agreement between the warring countries.
Although tensions have been simmering between Azerbaijan and Armenia for months, with local shelling and gunfire causing minimal casualties, Tuesday’s clashes surprised many with their ferocity. their bounce. There are concerns that the violence will hinder efforts for countries to sign a peace accord.
On Tuesday, for the first time in 30 years of near-frozen conflict over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding districts, Azerbaijan attacked Armenian artillery and air defense systems stationed in Armenia. Analyst shared The Fire Information Administration’s satellite mapping for NASA’s Resource Management System shows heavy fires in multiple locations inside Armenia.
Prime minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia said 49 Armenian servicemen were killed overnight in artillery and mortar attacks by the Azerbaijani Army.
Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan accused Armenia of several “large-scale provocations” and said they were forced to retaliate. Rear set announced that 50 Azerbaijani servicemen – 42 soldiers and 8 border guards – were killed.
Mr. Pashinyan, address to the Armenian Parliament, denied that his country had provoked Azerbaijan, and accused it of attacking Armenian territory first. He said that the intensity of hostilities eased later in the day, but attacks from Azerbaijan continued on one or two fronts.
Washington called on both sides to cease hostilities.
“Whether Russia is trying in some way to stir the pot, to create a distraction from Ukraine, is up to us,” Blinken told reporters at an event in Indiana, according to Reuters. always care”. The foreign minister said Russia could also use its influence in the region to help “calm the waters”.
Analysts warn that clashes in the Caucasus, an easy but often overlooked region, pose challenges for both Moscow and the West.
Recently, Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, said: article in Diplomacy.
“Failures in Ukraine have limited Russia’s ability to project power in the vicinity,” he wrote. “Its military and diplomatic leaders are distracted, and it is easier for local powers to ignore its directives and threats.”
Russia and Armenia are part of a Moscow-led military alliance whose charter states that an attack against one member would be considered an attack against all. Russia has maintained military bases in Armenia for decades and has had up to 2,000 troops deployed as peacekeepers in the disputed region since 2020.
However, Azerbaijan is already in a relatively strong position militarily and politically, following its successes in the 2020 war, Mr. de Waal said. He cited Baku’s signing of a non-violence pact with Russia, its success in receiving diplomatic support from Turkey, and its role as a gas supplier to the European Union as Russian gas comes under pressure from sanctions.
“The Azerbaijanis, they still have unfinished business with the Armenians,” he said. “And right now they feel that they are in a superior position to use both diplomacy and force to get those things done.”
Mr. de Waal said in an interview on Tuesday that the outbreak of clashes in the Caucasus was an additional test for Russia.
“When Russia stands behind a new Ukrainian attack, do they want to commit to defending Armenia and alienating Azerbaijan?” he said.
Baku has increased leverage with Russia as Moscow seeks alternative energy and trade shipping routes with Iran and Asia, as well as with Europe, said Laurence Broers, associate at the Russia and Eurasian program at Chatham House in London, Written on Twitter. He predicted that clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia would continue.
“Even if external powers, most likely Moscow, broker a ceasefire, such escalations are likely to continue as part of the coercive bargaining dynamics,” he wrote. latest reports, over a larger area”.
Farid Shafiyev, a former diplomat and director of the government-funded Center for Analysis of International Relations in Baku, said, “The real reason for these frequent clashes is that there is no treaty No real peace exists.”
The energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine has greatly increased the risk of a new war in the Caucasus.
Gazprom, Russia’s state natural gas company, almost turned off the gas faucet to punish the European Union for supporting Ukraine, leaving the bloc scrambling to make up for lost fuel, and households. Families and businesses face price increases that will most likely push the European economies into recession next year.
In mid-July, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, visited Azerbaijan to sign an agreement with President Ilham Aliyev. The bloc plans to increase gas imports from the country from 8 billion cubic meters a year to 12 billion next year and to 20 billion by 2027.
To make this happen, Ms von der Leyen and Mr Aliyev agreed, the EU would support the expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor to transport gas to several EU members and connect it further to the grid. power of the continent, including Greece, Bulgaria and Italy, among other countries. Ms. von der Leyen also announced investments worth tens of millions of euros.
“Thank you for promoting and supporting the European Union,” she speakscalled Azerbaijan a “reliable, trustworthy” partner.
There was no mention of conflict in Ms. von der Leyen’s speech. Aliyev called Karabakh “liberated” and said the area has the potential to contribute to renewable energy production.
Experts quick debate that Azerbaijan does not have the capacity to achieve the goals set out by the bilateral agreement and said the agreement gives the EU peace of mind.
Ms von der Leyen was also punished for making only the lightest comments on Azerbaijan’s much-condemned human rights record and reserving them for her closing sentences, which heavily involve disgrace of civil society organizations.
“To realize the full potential of Azerbaijan, it is important to create the right conditions for investor confidence,” said Ms. von der Leyen. “This includes greater participation of civil society, and an independent and free media.”
Daniel Freund, a European MP, denounced the gas deal when it was announced. “Authoritarian regimes are not trustworthy,” he said. “Not for the democracies, not for Europe and especially not for the citizens they brutally repress.”
For some observers, the deal is a desperate move that harms the bloc’s interests in the region by unduly strengthening Baku’s hand.
Charles Michel, president of another important EU organization, the Council of Europe, has been personally involved in the peace negotiations in the region. They look tattered now, but Mr. Michael is still trying. On Tuesday, he say he was in contact with both Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders. He called for a “complete and lasting ceasefire.”
Carlotta Gall reported from Istanbul, and Matina Stevis-Gridneff from Brussels. Ivan Nechepurenko contribution reports from Tbilisi, Georgia; Cora Engelbrecht from London; and Safak Timur from Istanbul.
