For much of the summer, President Biden and the Democratic Party suffered political headwinds in the background.
They have seen their poll numbers increase when Gasoline prices dropas the Supreme Court refocused voters on abortion, and as January 6 hearings and the investigation into Donald J. Trump’s handling of classified documents shifted media attention to an unpopular former president – instead of the current one.
But with six weeks to go until the midterm elections this November, there are few signs that the political wind may have begun to blow in a different direction – one that could help Republicans get through the stage. last road. Political attention may be turning back to issues where Republicans have an edge, like the economy and immigration.
These subtle shifts in national moods can be difficult to spot, but Google Search trends offer a suitable rough measure. For the first time since the Dobbs ruling that overthrew Roe v. Wade, Google searches for the economy and immigration have surpassed searches for abortion. Searches for democracy or the January 6 hearings have also dropped.
It’s too early to tell whether this subtle shift in voter attention will give Republicans an advantage. To extend the “political wind” analogy, it is possible that the pro-Democracy wind has eased, creating a relatively stable political climate that won’t have much of an impact on polls either way. two directions. Indeed, polls haven’t changed much over the past few weeks.
But Google’s new trending numbers are similar to those from the spring, when Republicans held the upper hand ahead of Dobbs’ ruling and the January 6 hearings and ahead of the FBI’s investigation into him. Trump. In all three cases, an unusual external event helped focus voters on an issue that would benefit Democrats. As those triggers fall into the rearview mirror, voters’ gazes seem to be drifting toward the previous set of problems.
New economic news is in a slightly different category. One bad inflation report sparking another rate hike and fears of another recession. The stock market fell significantly compared to the previous month. This may not be just April’s return to politics: It could represent a meaningful change in the national political climate.
Status of midterm elections 2022
As the primaries close, both parties are shifting their focus to the November 8 general election.
So far, there’s been little sign that shifting winds have begun to reshape the race for Congress. But if you look carefully, there are at least a few tantalizing clues. Mr. Biden’s approval rating hasn’t risen this month and Republicans appear to have made some modest gains in a few of important Senate races, such as that of Wisconsin.
So-called generic vote polls, which ask whether voters prefer Democrats or Republicans, haven’t really changed. Democrats still have a slight lead, according to FiveThirtyEight.
But this weekend, two polls showed Republicans leading among likely voters – including one ABC/Washington Post poll showed Republicans up five percentage points among likely voters. It could prove to be an outlier, or perhaps it’s the first sign of material change in the race.
Is it possible that voters lean Republican?
The ABC/Washington Post poll isn’t the only gauge for Sunday’s race. CBS News sees Republicans one point ahead among likely voters, 46 percent to 45 percent.
The difference between a Republican’s overall victory of one or five points on Election Day would be significant, but from a statistical standpoint, the difference between the one- to five-point lead in the two elections. exploration is not nearly so obvious. So I won’t focus too much on the difference between the top two numbers.
But the surveys seem to have one thing in common: They show Republicans have an edge in voter turnout. In the CBS News poll, Republicans were five points ahead of Democrats when they said they would “definitely” vote, 79% to 74%. Similarly, ABC/Post found that 81 percent of Republicans were “absolutely certain” to vote compared with 75 percent of Democrats.
This is quite a different story from our last NYT/Siena poll, which ended about two weeks ago. In our survey, 51% of Democrats said they “almost certainly” would vote, compared with 52% of Republicans.
As a result, the Times/Siena poll found no particularly stark difference between those who were able and those who signed up. Democrats trailed a one-point lead, 47% to 46%, against their two-point advantage among registered voters.
The difference between likely voters – those pollsters think will actually vote – and the larger number of adults or registered voters is always an important factor, but it’s especially important during the midterm elections. Lower turnout allows a more enthusiastic party – often one that loses power mid-term – to gain a more substantial turnout advantage than it is likely to remain in the election. Presidential elections have higher voter turnout.
Over the past few months, there hasn’t been much sign of another major voter turnout advantage for Republicans, like the ones they enjoyed in 2010 and 2014 or even in the gubernatorial election. in November of last year. If anything, the Democrats have shown signs of unusual enthusiasm, whether it be increase voter registration after Dobbs or the Democratic Party perform strongly in special elections, which tend to attract the most engaged voters.
With the national environment seemingly shifting towards issues where the Republican Party has an edge, it wouldn’t be surprising if we start to see a few more signs of a passionate Republican advantage. I’m open to the idea that the new ABC and CBS surveys are the start of a trend; It will be interesting to see if there are any changes in our next country poll.
(No, it has yet to be fielded.)
