BAT YAM, Israel – In theory, he’s unlikely to be the ideal candidate.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, was ousted 16 months ago – delivering political speeches at the end of his 12-year term – and is still today. appear in court for corruption.
But as Israel prepares for another general election, the fifth in less than four years, Mr. Netanyahu, a seasoned political phoenix running this time from the opposition, appears to be in a better position than any other. any of his opponents to lead the next government coalition.
“He is the strongest political player, despite everything,” said Mazal Mualem, an Israeli political commentator and author of a recently released biography of Netanyahu in Hebrew. “The fact that he survived until now is proof of his strength,” she said. “Beyond his role as a politician, he is also a cultural and social phenomenon.”
However, despite the loyalty he has enjoyed so far from his conservative party, Likud; from its political allies; and from supporters attracted by his messages emphasizing the country’s Jewish identity, Mr. Netanyahu remains a divisive figure in Israel and yet may not win them a war. clear win.
Pre-election opinion polls are showing a electorate roughly split between pro- and anti-Netanyahu factions, with Likud receiving the most votes, but each falling short of a majority. Some political analysts have predicted a sixth election, most likely next spring.
Mr. Netanyahu, 73, popularly known by his childhood nickname, Bibi, has not emerged from an election with a clear majority for Likud and its allies since 2015, when segregation Political poles, paralysis and chaos have enveloped the country.
His opponents were also unable to forge a stable alliance, with Naftali Bennett’s government fell this summer. Yair Lapid took over as caretaker prime minister of a transitional government. His center-right Yesh Atid party is currently voting second behind Likud.
While the recent election campaign has been marked by voter fatigue, Mr. Netanyahu has run an energetic run, flooding social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok with engaging videos. and campaigned vigorously throughout Israel.
Mr. Netanyahu has also used his time to write an autobiography, “Bibi: My Story.” Published this month, the English version has immediately ranked as Amazon’s best seller.
And he did not give up his relentless efforts to bring down the last government led by Mr. Bennett, explode after one year.
All of which has helped bolster support for him and his political allies. Many Israelis still see him as the most qualified candidate to take on the country’s security, diplomacy and economy.
Even his corruption trial, in which the Jerusalem District Court is seeking to pass a list of more than 300 witnesses, has earned him more sympathy and admiration from Israelis, who agree with the verdict. his claims that he had been “framed” by a deeply liberal state, and that court proceedings were largely removed from the public agenda.
According to Ms. Mualem and a number of current and former Netanyahu aides and strategists, one reason for Mr. Netanyahu’s success because they are not allowed to speak publicly, is his unrivaled dominance over the with the social network. That allows him to bypass the mainstream media, which he has long considered biased, and speak directly to his public. Fluent in the “Jewish language” and sentimentality, Ms. Mualem said, he also tries to appeal to ultra-Orthodox voters, even though he is secular.
Mr. Netanyahu’s focus is on getting every Likud voter out of Election Day, after tens of thousands have sat out the 2021 election or voted for other parties.
He asserted while on the campaign trail that internal polls were giving his tight bloc a share of more than 60 seats in Congress, within a gap of a 61-seat majority in the legislature. 120-seat legislation, although that would most likely mean forming a government with, and allocating ministerial posts to, the Zionist far-right party, which is working alongside the Zionist Powers. Extreme Thai.
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Leader of Jewish Power, extremist legislator Itamar Ben-Gvirrecently pulled out a shotgun during a campaign stop in a volatile East Jerusalem neighborhood and called on police officers to open fire on local Palestinian stone throwers.
The opposition, ideologically divergent bloc of disgruntled conservatives, centre-rights, leftists and Arabs will have a much more difficult path to government, not least because it is trailing behind the bloc. support Netanyahu, according to the majority of the latest polls, but also because some of the bloc’s parties would oppose sitting in a coalition with others.
Hoping to win supporters of the far-right, Mr. Netanyahu has been less divided than before, stopping attacks on the police and judiciary and leaving that to some members of Likud. Defaming Arab politicians as “supporters of terrorism”, he stressed Israel’s Jewish identity and the need for a Jewish government. But he has also sent soothing messages in Arabic to Arab minorities.
His campaign has also focused on Likud strongholds where turnout was previously very low, with his “Bibi-mobile” – a convertible van whose side has been replaced with bulletproof glass. through which he speaks to supporters – appearing at rallies (called Bibi -Ba, because Bibi is back) across the country.
This month, the Bibi-mobile showed up at a public park in Bat Yam, a low-income Likud beach town south of Tel Aviv, where voter turnout is below 50% by 2021.
The moment the screen was lifted to reveal Mr. Netanyahu behind bulletproof glass, the audience – mostly locals who had ambushed from their apartments, some wearing bras, sweatpants and flip flops – immediately instantly invigorated.
“Good evening, Bat Yam!” Mr. Netanyahu boomed, in his third campaign stop of the night.
It has a pantomime quality, as the heavily-dressed Mr. Netanyahu asks the crowd if they want another year of Mr. Lapid’s Israel-Palestinian government (“No!”) Or they want Israel back (“Yes!” ) . Mention of the Lapid government, which includes Ra’am, a small Muslim party, caused boos.
As the crowd chanted, “Bibi, King of Israel!” Mr. Netanyahu moved on to his fourth stop, at another park across town. “Good evening, Bat Yam!” he boomed, as if it was his first time.
Sara Brand, 73, a local resident, said she once voted for the centre-left Labor Party but voted for Likud because of the trial and what the media called a “crusade” against Mr. .
Two Bachar, 29, a security guard, said: “We are a Zionist, Zionist state. On the left is the enemy of Israel. They cannot be in government.”
Research by Moshe Klughaft, a strategist who has met Mr. Netanyahu several times during this campaign, shows that many undecided voters care less about character than the need for stable government and the cost of living. high activity. Mr. Netanyahu promised that good voter turnout would ensure “four years of stability, right-wing government” and has pledged to introduce free day care for babies and children under the age of 3. in a new program”Babysister” video.
If Mr. Netanyahu returns to the prime minister’s office, his detractors are most worried that he and his loyalists will make fundamental changes to the justice system and democracy that would annul the trial. judge him.
“The plan is purely to replace the attorney general,” said Ben Caspit, an Israeli political commentator and two-time biographer of Mr. Netanyahu. “They’re saying, ‘We’re not here to destroy the system, but to reform it and fix it.'”
Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the far-right religious far-right party in Mr Netanyahu’s bloc, has announced a sweeping change plan that includes the repeal of fraud and breach of trust charges – two of the charges against Mr. Netanyahu was charged. of, along with bribery – from the penal code.
Mr. Netanyahu, who denies all wrongdoing, insists that any such change would not apply retroactively to him and that the case against him is going to court. But to exclude him from such a legal amendment would require him to be an exception under the law.
Tzachi Hanegbi, a veteran Likud lawmaker and former minister, said in an interview that if Mr. Netanyahu wanted to save himself from the trial, he might have to negotiate with the authorities.
Netanyahu remains the leading candidate, Hanegbi said, because he retains a sense of mission, believes Israel’s fate rests on his shoulders, and “because he wants it more than anyone else.” other”.
Even if Mr. Netanyahu fails this time, he may still be unchallenged from within Likud. “It won’t be a problem if he wants to stay,” Mr Hanegbi said. “He can stay for another 10 years if he wants to.”
