Tech

Analyst says iPhone 14 Pro supply will be lower than expected


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Image: Apples

According to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple may ship 15 million to 20 million fewer iPhone Pro and iPhone Pro Max units than expected after the COVID-19 lockdowns and public protests. employees at Apple’s iPhone assembly plants in China.

Kuo believes there is a “significant downside risk” to Apple and iPhones following worker protests at Foxconn’s Zhengzhou iPhone assembly plant and Covid restrictions. Kuo noted that the market consensus is that Apple will ship 80 million to 85 million iPhone 14 Pro series units in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared with the 70 million to 75 million figure Kuo is currently predicting.

“The production of the iPhone factory in Zhengzhou was significantly affected by the worker protests, so I cut the iPhone shipments in Q4 2022 by about 20% to 70– 75 million units (compared to the market consensus of 80–85 million units)” wrote Kuo in a Medium post.

Workers at the iPhone factory in Zhengzhou clashed with police over working conditions last week as the company and local authorities imposed restrictions to prevent COVID-19 infections from increasing at the factory.

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The Zhengzhou factory, operated by Foxconn, is responsible for producing the majority of new iPhones. It employs about 200,000 people.

Kuo estimates the Zhengzhou plant was operating at about 20% capacity in November and is expected to grow to 30% to 40% in December. He does not expect large shipments of models. iPhone 14 will continue until “end of December at the earliest”.

During the first week of November, Apple said It expects lower iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone Pro Max shipments and longer wait times due to COVID-19 restrictions at the Zhengzhou factory. Apple didn’t say how much shipments would drop, but Bloomberg reported at the time that Apple had cut the estimate from 90 million to 87 million yen. Apple notes that demand for these two models is still very high.

Bloomberg report on monday According to a source familiar with assembly operations, the problem at the Zhengzhou factory will likely lead to a shortage of nearly 6 million iPhone Pro units this year. It reports that Apple hopes to fill that gap by 2023.

However, Kuo thinks that most of the demand for the iPhone 14 Pro models will disappear amid the economic downturn rather than being delayed due to the large gap between supply and demand.

He also estimates Apple’s revenue for the fourth quarter of 2022 will be up to 30% lower than analysts’ expectations due to the high price of the iPhone 14 Pro series, which starts at $999.

Apple’s website currently says a wait time of four weeks for both iPhone 14 Pro models. In early November, the waiting period is three to four weeks. After Apple announced the expected delay, the waiting time was between four and five weeks.

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