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All-out war with Russia is last thing NATO wants, but allies will likely seek to respond | World News



The deadly Russian missile explosion in Poland marks the first time the war in Ukraine has hit NATO territory in a serious test for the alliance.

But – judging by early indications – the crisis does not appear to be the trigger for direct military conflict between NATO and Moscow.

Poland’s president said his country had no convincing evidence of who fired the missile and that the attack appeared to be a one-time incident rather than an ongoing threat.

World leaders hold emergency meeting – watch live response

All-out war with Russia is something NATO doesn’t want, but the allies will likely find some way to respond to Tuesday’s explosion, which killed two people.

As a first step, they will hold emergency talks on Wednesday morning at their headquarters in Brussels, with Poland requesting consultations under Article 4 of the NATO treaty.

Article 4 allows an ally who feels threatened to discuss his concerns and any possible action.

The size of the response will depend on what happened, why and what kind of message the 30 member states want to send to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

NATO has so far sought to avoid confrontation since Russia launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine, the non-NATO country, in February.

But the alliance has also been wary of the possibility that Russia would seek to test its ally’s resolve by intentionally targeting its own territory or unintentionally harming a member state – such as Poland – shares a border with Ukraine.

NATO forces will have scenarios for war and how best to respond.

That means, once there is clarity on what happened, the response from NATO is likely to be swift. But it will require consensus.

Read more:
Missile attack on Poland could be a deliberate attempt to check NATO – but overreaction risks dangerous escalation
What NATO Articles 4 and 5 say – when Russia is accused of a missile attack on a member state

If it is determined that Russia deliberately launched a missile at Poland, Moscow will deliberately cross the red line.

The allies have made it clear that they will strike back if any part of NATO is attacked. This could even mean invoking Article 5 of the alliance’s treaty, which states that an attack on one is an attack on all and that NATO allies can retaliate with force. force.

The threat of an armed response to any armed attack is fundamental to the alliance’s ability to defend itself and its interests.

A Russian attack against Poland would be a deliberate test of this resolve.

NATO will need to strike a balance between demonstrating that such action will not be tolerated and will never be repeated, with the need to prevent the triggering of a wider war between two armed adversaries. Nuclear.

Conversely, if the explosion at Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland, near the border with Ukraine, appears to have occurred by mistake or as a result of Ukrainian air defense systems firing Russian missiles. out of the sky, allies can choose to strengthen their own defenses rather than continue to attack.

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