SAN FRANCISCO – Nancy Pelosi has made two very different, almost irreconcilable statements about her political future.
In 2018, she pledged that 2022 would be her final year as House Democrat leader, join a term limit to quell an uprising and secure a second time as a speaker. In January, she announced she would run for another two-year term in the House of Representatives.
With the House passing sweeping measures to tackle climate change and prescription drug prices on Friday – “a glorious day for us”, Ms. Pelosi beamed – and her China defiant trip. When she went to Taiwan as a diplomatic base, the question of what happens next for Ms. Pelosi was only growing.
Would she insist to continue as a speaker if Democrats somehow take hold of the House? Or, if Republicans take control, will she simply retire?
She could break her 2018 pledge and find a way to continue as the Democratic leader in the minority. Those close to her describe only one option as unthinkable: dismissal to the back table.
Ms. Pelosi, 82, avoided discussing her plans this past November and declined to be interviewed. A spokesman, Drew Hammill, issued the same brief statement he had previously issued: “The speaker is not on duty,” he said. “She’s on duty.”
Some clues to Ms. Pelosi’s future can be found near her home in San Francisco – where the tantalizing possibility of the city’s first open congressional seat since the fall of the Soviet Union has become a mainstay. ruler of the town.
Candidates, labor leaders, political strategists, donors and activists have been busy planning what the run for her success will look like – though almost in complete secrecy, to avoid disadvantaging Ms. Pelosi, who has explicitly stated that she wants to retire. her own terms.
“This is very much a campaign that will not be named,” said Dan Newman, a Democrat based in San Francisco, of the initial jostling. “Nancy Pelosi is a force of nature, and no one wants to be disrespectful or dismissive in any way.”
In interviews, more than a dozen officials said local Democrats were bracing for the possibility that Ms. Pelosi might step down rather than stay and hand the crown to a Republican. That would trigger a particularly snappy San Francisco election, held within 150 days — a sprint for what, given the city’s politics, could lead to a full appointment. actual life in the National Assembly.
Adding to the conspiracy: A potential successor is Christine Pelosi, daughter of Ms. Pelosi, a party activist and Democratic National Committee executive board member who acted as an advisor to her mother, wrote a book about her and often accompanied her to local union halls, speeches and parades. She gives her opinion online from a Twitter handle, @sfpelosithat could at a glance be mistaken for something her mother might use.
Wrapped in Pelosi’s decision and its timing are intertwined questions about power, legacy and dynasty, and how a prominent public figure has the ability to break barriers. could manage her departure.
There’s also politics in Washington: Ms. Pelosi called herself a “bridge to the next generation of leaders” four years ago, signaling her desire that her departure coincide with those of her colleagues. at age 10, Congressmen Steny Hoyer, 83, and James Clyburn 82. Disagree.
Similarly, in San Francisco, the name Pelosi remains popular, but there is no guarantee of a controlled succession.
A prominent state senator, Scott Wiener, whose district overlaps with Ms. Pelosi’s, is widely seen as the man who laid the groundwork for a campaign. Mr. Wiener has spent nearly $2.5 million on his re-election and has attracted supporters under the guise of good politics, despite his ambitions to become San Francisco’s first openly gay congressman. is an open secret.
In an interview at a pastry shop in Brazil, the 6-foot-7-inch Wiener refused to even mention the possibility of post-Pokesy survival. “The longer she stays, the better for our country,” he said. “I’m on Team Nancy.”
It’s a comment in line with what Tony Winnicker, a longtime local Democratic strategist, calls “the first rule when running for the seat of Nancy Pelosi.”
“You never talk about it in a way that suggests Nancy is leaving,” he said.
Christine Pelosi also declined to comment.
As the former chair of the state’s Democratic Women’s caucus, the younger Pelosi, 56, has been outspoken in combating sexual harassment.
Increasingly, she and Mr. Wiener, 52, participate in local events, such as the Pride breakfast where Mr and Mrs Pelosi both give speeches. “This has been our family affair for over 30 years,” Nancy Pelosi said, recognizing her daughter’s presence. (She also acknowledges Mr. Wiener.)
How Times reporters cover politics.
We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times employees can vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political ends. This includes participating in marches or demonstrations to support a movement or raise money for, or raise money for, any political candidate or electoral cause.
Just as she did in Washington, where she outlasted a generation of potential male successors — Rahm Emanuel, Chris Van Hollen and Joseph Crowley among them — Ms. ambitious locality since 1987.
Willie Brown, the former mayor of San Francisco, says that Planner campaigns are smart to start, even if a bit early. In a lunchtime interview, he speculated that Ms Pelosi would eventually prove a strong ally to her daughter.
“If her mother hadn’t been around, Christine would have been a formidable candidate,” Mr Brown said. “Because her mother would make her a formidable candidate.”
Few people expected that it was not until November that the female speaker revealed her intentions. Doing so sooner could reduce her swings over a razor-thin Democratic majority in the House, not to mention her power as a fundraiser. She’s hosting a big fundraiser in Napa next weekend, including a cocktail party at her house.
Whenever her House of Representatives seat opens, it will be an opportunity to not only succeed the first female speaker in American history, but also represent a city that has long surpassed the weight of it in national politics, despite having a smaller population than Columbus, Ohio.
Today, officials 2 and 3 in the presidential line of succession – Vice President Kamala Harris, once the city’s district attorney, and Ms. Pelosi – both cut their teeth politically in San Francisco. The Democrats emerging in the city’s notoriously tough liberal politics, from Governor Gavin Newsom to Sen. Dianne Feinstein to Pelosi, have sought to appease the warring factions. of the Democratic Party.
“Fight gives you muscle,” said Debra Walker, an artist and activist who served as president of the Harvey Milk LGBTQ Democratic Club. In June, Ms. Walker was appointed to the San Francisco Police Commission, when Mayor London Breed sought to defuse an explosion between the police department and the organizers of the city’s annual Pride Parade, who sought to ban marching officers from wearing uniform.
Even among Ms. Pelosi’s friends and allies, some have wondered if Christine Pelosi, who wrote a book about movement but has never run for office on her own, has been fully prepared.
“I would rather see Christine start at the state level than Congress,” said Joe Cotchett, a major Democratic donor and family friend.
Mr Cotchett expects Nancy Pelosi to support her daughter, until some point. “Do I think Nancy will push her? Emotionally, she is my daughter,” he said. “But I don’t think Nancy is the type of person who would step in and try to block anyone from running.”
If older Ms. Pelosi is known for her deft relationship management, that’s less true of Christine, whose years as an activist have pressed for resolutions. of the DNC – trying to ban corporate donations, demanding a 2020 climate debate – sometimes angers party cadres.
Her last name has saved her from public criticism, but the potential frustration has grown, according to a half-dozen officials on both coasts.
For example, she opposed the Newsom group, when she proposed in 2021 recalling that Mr. Newsom should resign if he looks like he will lose. Publicly, she seeks to undercut Mr Newsom’s central strategy labeled the recall as a Republican takeover of power. Privately, she messaged Mr Newsom directly to complain about his tactics, according to two people briefed in the messages she sent.
Mr Newsom defeated the recall in a landslide.
In a city where politics is often personal and complex, Mr. Wiener has also accumulated criticism.
Mike Casey, president of the San Francisco Labor Council, talks about the race to succeed Ms. Pelosi. “But mostly we don’t want anyone. Like Scott Wiener has really realized our trades and some of our bad sides. “
And while Mr. Wiener and Ms. Pelosi are progressives by any national measure, neither of which will necessarily please the city’s ideological purists, one wing also has candidates can be submitted. “I don’t rule it out,” said Jane Kim, a 45-year-old former supervisor and executive director of the California Labor Family Party.
Jen Snyder, a strategist based in San Francisco who works with progressives, can garner little enthusiasm for a Pelosi-Wiener contest.
“It would be Mothra versus Godzilla,” said Mrs. Snyder. “I guess I’ll be on the sidelines eating popcorn.”
Another possible candidate is Breed, the first black woman to serve as mayor. According to people close to her, she said she was not interested in running for Congress.
“I can tell you as a friend of hers, she is not,” said Lee Housekeeper, a local public relations veteran who participated in the afternoon interview with Mr. know.
“I can tell you as a friend of hers, better than her,” Mr. Brown interjected.
Clint Reilly, who managed Ms. Pelosi’s 1987 congressional campaign and has known her family since, initially refused to speak. “Leave me alone!” He is resolute. “They won’t be satisfied with anything I say!”
But Mr Reilly, an investor who now owns The San Francisco Examiner, agreed to talk, including how Ms Pelosi won that first race, beating a gay rival, Harry Britt , who ran to her left, in a multi-way argument.
Her prophetic motto: “One voice will be heard.”
If Democrats lose in November, “most people would call it that at the time,” Mr. Reilly said. But not necessarily Ms. Pelosi. “She loves the game,” he said. “She hates losing.”
“How did it end?” he mused. “I don’t think even she knows the answer.”
