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AAP’s Big Advantage In Gujarat And 3 Weaknesses


If three young men made the last Gujarat election interesting, Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) promise to turn this election into a steamer.

In 2017, Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakur, three young politicians who are not related to Congress nor the BJP, caused such excitement that many believed that Narendra Modi might even lose his state.

BJP did not lose. It holds the majority of the 182-member council with 99 seats. The Games were declared the “real” winners; it won 77 seats and limited the BJP to double digits.

The world has changed since then. The boys – all three – had joined political parties. Jignesh came to the Congress; Hardik has moved from Congress to BJP; Alpesh also joined the BJP.

AAP, a new player in Gujarat, can also be x-factor.

When Kejriwal started campaigning in Gujarat six months ago, no one took him seriously.

By the time election day was announced, the AAP had become a force to be reckoned with.

The question currently being asked the most in Gujarat and outside is, whether the AAP will replace Parliament as the main opposition. Or whether AAP will damage not only Congress but also the BJP.

But what if AAP was all optical and no substance? Could it be that Gujarat also turned out to be like Uttarakhand and Goa, where AAP ran strong, visible campaigns, spent a lot of money and resources but didn’t do much?

In Goa, AAP only slightly improved its vote share from the 2017 parliamentary elections. In Uttarakhand, it achieved a disappointing 3% of the vote. After the election, the entire AAP leadership joined the BJP.

On the other hand, what’s to say that AAP can’t pull Punjab in Gujarat? In Punjab, the AAP formed a government after winning 92 out of an unprecedented 117 seats earlier this year. There is every indication that AAP will perform better in Gujarat than in Goa and Uttarakhand, but a Punjab redux seems unlikely.

Most analysts make the mistake of trying to measure AAP with traditional tools.

Without a doubt, the AAP has established itself as a “traditional” political party over the past 10 years. It learned all the tricks of the old BJP and Congress.

What sets it apart from other parties is the perception of ordinary people. AAP is considered distinct. It is this realization that makes it such an attractive option.

We have to understand that people are fed up with old-fashioned politics. They want something new.

Part of Modi’s success lies in the prediction that he is not like other politicians, that he is different. His organizational flexibility, great use of technology, and superior money power enhanced his charisma and earned him cult status.

Kejriwal is the original exception. He represents disruption; His was a protest vote. He represents the rejection of traditional politics and its structures.

This phenomenon is not limited to India. Worldwide, the shift to right-wing politics reflects that the masses are hungry for new, hungry for something new.

Looks like the post-World War II era is long overdue.

It’s no surprise that left-wing libertarians are on the defensive and are fighting to stay relevant. In India too, their space is shrinking, and BJP and AAP are dominating. Gujarat is no exception.

It is not surprising that a party, almost a year ago, not without one, has suddenly emerged as an important force. Various opinion polls consistently show that the AAP has turned the Gujarat election into a triangulation. For decades, Gujarat has been an outspoken battle between Congress and the BJP. Although the National Assembly has failed in Gujarat since 1995, it has always won 38% of the vote and more, not a small number.

In 2017, its vote share increased to 42%. This time, there is a high probability that its vote share will drop significantly. If that happens, Congress will be in serious trouble nationally as well as nationally. Only Congress can be blamed for this.

Despite showing strong in the last Gujarat elections, the Parliament has not made any effort to capitalize on the gains gained. It couldn’t keep Hardik Patel, who was a star of the last election. It does not plan to use Jignesh Mevani effectively. For more than a year, the Congress did not have a Gujarat leader.

Rahul Gandhi made waves in 2017 for his aggressive election campaign. This time, he is everywhere but in Gujarat. In the last six months, he has rarely visited the state. His ambition Bharat Jodo Yatra neatly bypassing Gujarat. It is clear that Congress never had a plan for Gujarat. It will pay the price.

But AAP in Gujarat has its own problems. Exactly three.

1. Unlike Punjab and Delhi, Gujarat is a much larger state in absolute geography. Getting a new party to reach every corner of the state is a daunting task. If the AAP started its predecessor right after the 2017 election, it has been very strong as of now, organizationally. The lack of an organization can be its undoing. There may be sympathy for the AAP but getting such voters to the polls requires booth-level organization, which is currently lacking. Kejriwal hopes to neutralize that with his personal charm.

2. In Delhi, Kejriwal is a charismatic leader and in Punjab, Bhagwant Mann has a huge following. AAP’s phenomenal win in 2022 thanks a lot to Mann’s popularity. He drew large crowds in his rallies; Some of his rallies show Kejriwal’s larger crowds. But in Gujarat, AAP lacks a face. Its cantonal leaders are virtually unknown in the entire state. Kejriwal is the only saving grace. But we all know he cannot be the Prime Minister of Gujarat.

3. AAP got off to a good start by promoting the “Delhi governance model” versus Modi’s “Gujarat model”. But it has slowly drifted towards the heavyweight Hindutva. In Modi’s homeland, attracting Hindutva voters will be seen as a huge success. But if AAP had persisted with non-BJPs and popular voters, it would have been better. It seems that when the old tapes of Gopal Italia convening in the state of Gujarat are emerging, the AAP is very worried. In a rush to make up, the party dropped the shocking work “Laxmi-Ganesh Pictures on Currency”, which appeared to have been unpopular with the urban and educated middle class.

However, AAP cannot be taken lightly. It is an unknown item to the Gujarat voters. No one can say with confidence how much damage that will do to the Congress. But the AAP is here to stay, at the expense of Congress.

(Ashutosh is the author of ‘Hindu Rashtra’ and Editor, satyahindi.com.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.

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