World

A Distracted Russia Is Losing Its Grip on Its Old Soviet Sphere


Overshadowed by the Chinese leader, Putin endured a series of humiliating protocols that left him awkwardly waiting in front of the camera as other leaders, including Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, arrived late to meet him.

“Of course this was not intentional,” Japarov said. “No intention at all.”

But widely circulated videos of an annoyed-looking Putin; a public rebuke from the prime minister of India, who declared that “in this day and age there is no war”; and an admission from the Russian leader that China has “questions and concerns” about the war in Ukraine, all of which reinforce the image of shrinking influence and diminishing appeal.

“Putin is no longer the invincible great leader that everyone wants to meet,” said Emil Dzhuraev, a researcher in Bishkek with the Crossroad Central Asia research group. “He’s lost his aura.”

In contrast, Mr. Xi has become more assertive. During a visit to Kazakhstan last month, he pledged to “resolutely support Kazakhstan in defending its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity”, a comment widely interpreted as a warning to with Moscow should not try anything.

A few days later, after the advance of Tajik forces, China made a similar commitment to Kyrgyzstan, backing Russia’s longstanding role of guarding the Central Asian border.

During the summit, China also sparked another confrontation by signing an agreement with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan that fixed a proposed new railway line to bring Chinese exports to Europe by overland without going through Russia.

The massive project, expected to cost more than $4 billion and still face major obstacles, has long stalled, largely because China already has rail links to Europe via Kazakhstan and Russia, and did not want to risk Moscow’s wrath by building an alternative that would break its barrier to trans-Eurasian overland transport.

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