A year in prison but still a dominant opposition figure

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has now been in prison for a year – although there were times when you hardly knew it.

Mr Khan remains the dominant force in Pakistan’s opposition politics; his name still appears in newspapers and in courts. His social media supporters remain relentless.

Out of the public eye, the few people allowed to visit the former cricket star regularly – his lawyers and family – have become his conduit to the outside world. They want to convey the message that 365 days in prison have not broken him.

“There is still that swagger in him,” said Aleema Khanum, Imran Khan’s sister. “He has no needs, no desires – just one purpose.”

According to people who visited him, Mr. Khan spent his days on an exercise bike, reading and meditating. He took an hour-long walk around the yard each day. There were occasional disagreements about how quickly the family could provide him with new books.

“He said, ‘I’m not wasting a minute in prison, this is an opportunity for me to gain more knowledge,'” Ms Khanum told the BBC.

But the reality is that Mr Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi are still stuck in prison and there is no sign of them being released anytime soon.

According to some, this is not surprising.

“No one expects Mr Khan to do anything to get out of prison easily,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington.

And the military – Pakistan’s powerful behind-the-scenes force – “is unafraid when they decide there’s a political figure they want to arrest,” Mr Kugelman said. “Especially in the case of Khan.”

Indeed, the military has been key to many of Mr Khan’s ups and downs over the past decade, with many analysts believing that it was his early close ties to the military that helped him gain power.

But on 9 May last year, that fell apart. Mr Khan – who was ousted from power in a 2022 no-confidence vote – was arrested and his supporters took to the streets in protest.

Some protests turned violent and there were attacks on military buildings – including the official residence of the most senior military official in Lahore which was looted and burned.

BBC sources later said, Pakistani media companies have been informed Stop showing pictures, saying your name, or making your voice heard.

Mr Khan was released – but only for a few months.

He was jailed again on August 5 for failing to properly declare the sale of state gifts – and that was just the beginning.

In the run-up to the election, the case against him grew; by early February – just days before the vote – the 71-year-old had been handed three lengthy prison sentences, the most recent of which was 14 years.

By the time the election came around, many of Khan’s PTI candidates were in jail or in hiding, and the party had been stripped of its familiar cricket bat symbol – an important identifier in a country with a Literacy rate 58%.

Despite this, Salman Akram Raja, Mr Khan’s lawyer and a candidate in the election, said: “We are determined and want to make a statement.”

“It was very restrictive, many people couldn’t campaign. Losing the cricket bat symbol was a big blow.”

All the candidates are running as independents, but hopes – even within the party – are not high.

However, Imran Khan-backed candidates won more seats than anyone else, forcing his political opponents to form alliances to block them. Meanwhile, the PTI had to fight many of its seats in court, alleging that the results were rigged.

Supporters see the February 8 election as a turning point, a testament to Mr Khan’s powerful message – even while behind bars.

“There is a change, which was manifested on February 8,” said Aleema Khanum. “Change is coming, it is in the air.”

Others argue that the result does not, in fact, change the status quo.

“We are really in a situation where we can expect to be given precedent in the past,” Mr. Kugelman said.

“PTI failed to form a government, its leader is still in prison and the ruling coalition is led by military-backed parties.”

But recently, things seem to be looking brighter for Mr Khan and his supporters.

All three convictions handed down just before the election were quashed, a UN panel declared his arrest arbitrary, and Pakistan’s supreme court said the PTI was an official party and should receive “reserve seats”; reserved seats for women and non-Muslims were allocated in proportion to the seats the party won.

But there has been no real impact yet: Mr Khan is still in prison with new cases against him, and benches have yet to be allocated.

His wife Bushra Bibi, whose prison sentence was overturned when the case declaring their marriage illegal was appealed, also remains in jail on the new charges.

Meanwhile, the government has made clear that it views Mr Khan and his party as a public threat, announcing earlier this month that it intended to seek a ban on the PTI, despite warnings from groups such as the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan.

The military has also shown no signs of changing its mind. On the anniversary of May 9 this year, a statement from its public relations department said there would be no compromise with “the planners, facilitators and executioners” and that they would not be allowed to “cheat on the laws of the land”.

And it is this relationship with the military that most analysts say Mr Khan really needs to straighten out in order to stay out of prison.

“I think we can work out a deal that gives everyone a way out and allows the system to work,” said Khan’s lawyer, Mr Raja.

Meanwhile, from prison, Mr Khan has been delivering his own message. Aleema Khanum recently said he told the army to “remain neutral… so that this country can be free”, calling it “the backbone of Pakistan”.

Some commentators saw this as an olive branch, although the use of the term neutrality was noted; when the military previously declared neutrality by not taking sides in politics, he ridiculed the expression, saying that “only animals are neutral”.

His recent call for early elections is a move some see as one of the conditions he has placed on the military.

“I don’t think that’s realistic,” Mr. Kugelman said. “Over time, Khan may give in a little bit. This is one of the truisms of Pakistani politics: if you want to be prime minister, you need to have the support of the military, or at least not the support of the military.”

At least for now, the stalemate continues.