There is a 40% chance of the President Joe Biden will not run for re-election, according to Stifel.
Brian Gardner, the firm’s chief policy strategist in Washington, published a research note calling it a “make or break week” for the president’s campaign as Congress returns from its July 4 recess.
“There’s a 60 percent chance, a high probability, that he’ll stay,” Gardner told CNBC.Fast money“Biden loves proving the smart kids in the Democratic Party wrong. So the more he hears elite voices telling him he needs to go, the more determined he is to stick to his guns.”
Gardner, who advises equity analysts on how White House policy can influence their coverage, said Democrats pushing Biden to drop out will face significant obstacles.
“They lack leverage. They can try to convince Biden to drop out of the race, but they can’t force him out,” Gardner told clients on Monday. “It’s unrealistic to think that at least half of Biden’s most loyal supporters will turn against him and not vote for his nomination.”
While concerns about the president’s age persist throughout his latest bid for the Oval Office, an ineffective debate in June changed the tone of the conversation. Polling data and Financial markets are beginning to reflect this. The shift in sentiment favors former President Donald Trump.
However, Gardner said that if Biden stays in the race, Democrats could still see favorable results.
“There is a certain number of voters who will never vote for Donald Trump “Whatever,” said Gardner.
