In another dire warning about the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday predicted that this year could see between 17 and 25 named tropical storms, the largest number the agency has ever forecast in May for the Atlantic.
NOAA’s forecast joins more than a dozen other recent forecasts from experts at universities, private companies and other government agencies. predicted the possibility of 14 or more named storms. this season; many predict the number will be more than 20.
Rick Spinrad, NOAA administrator, said at a press conference on thursday morning that the agency’s forecasters believe eight to 13 named storms could become hurricanes, meaning they would include winds of at least 74 mph. Those storms could include four to seven major hurricanes — Category 3 or higher — with winds of at least 111 mph
According to NOAA, there are 85 10 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season, with 5 percent chance of a below-normal hurricane season. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, including seven major hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
While just one storm in a below-average season can devastate a community, conditions are favorable for nearly twice the average number of storms, making North America more likely to be hit by a tropical storm or, worse, a major hurricane.
There are 21 entries in this year’s official list of storm names, from Alberto to William. If that list is exhausted, the National Weather Service will move on to list of alternate namessomething the company has only had to do twice in its history.
NOAA typically issues a May forecast and then an updated forecast in August. Before Thursday, NOAA’s most significant May forecast was in 2010, when it predicted 14 to 23 named storms; that year, 19 storms ultimately formed before the season ended. In 2020, the May forecast was for 13 to 19 named storms, but the updated forecast for August was even higher, with 19 to 25 named storms. That season ultimately saw 30 named storms.
This year’s storm forecast is quite severe due to the unprecedented conditions predicted.
As forecasters look toward the official start of the season on June 1, they see a combination of circumstances that have never occurred in records dating back to the mid-1800s: record-warm water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the potential for a La Niña weather pattern to form.
Without prior examples of such conditions, forecasters trying to predict the upcoming hurricane season can only extrapolate from previous exceptions, said Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miami who specializes in hurricane formation.
Experts are concerned about warming ocean temperatures.
“I think every system is going to have a strong season,” said Phil Klotzbach, a seasonal storm forecaster at Colorado State University.
A key region of the Atlantic where hurricanes form has been unusually warm just before the start of hurricane season, said Benjamin Kirtman, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Miami. previously described the conditions as “unprecedented”, “alarming” and “an anomaly beyond the pale”.
Over the past century, those temperatures have been rising steadily. But last year, with a intensity that worries climate scientists, the water warmed even faster in an area of the Atlantic where most hurricanes form. That region, from West Africa to Central America, is hotter this year than it was at the start of last year’s hurricane season, which produced 20 named storms.
Current temperatures in the Atlantic are worrying because they mean the ocean is preparing to provide extra fuel for any storms that form. Even if the surface suddenly cools, temperatures below the surface, which are also significantly higher than average, are expected to quickly warm up again.
These warmer temperatures can fuel the formation of hurricanes — and help sustain them. Sometimes, if there are no other atmospheric conditions impeding their development, they can intensify faster than normal, becoming hurricanes in less than a day.
Combined with a rapidly weakening El Niño weather pattern in early May, the temperatures are making forecasters increasingly confident that there will be an exceptionally high number of storms this season.
The split between El Niño and the possibility of La Niña is adding confidence to forecasts.
El Niño is caused by changing ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and affects weather patterns around the globe. When it is strong, it often suppresses the development and growth of hurricanes. Last year, warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean dampened the effects of El Niño to do just that. If El Niño subsides, as forecasters predict, there won’t be much to dampen the season this time around.
Forecasters who specialize in El Niño’s ups and downs, including Michelle L’Heureux of the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, are fairly confident that not only will El Niño weaken, but there’s a very high chance — 77 percent — that La Niña will form at the peak of hurricane season.
The system could create a curveball, she said, but at this point in the spring, things are playing out as forecasters have predicted. A La Niña weather pattern would put them on track for an above-average year. The potential for La Niña, combined with record sea surface temperatures this hurricane season, is expected to create a strong environment this year for storms to form and strengthen.
