As Russia becomes mired in a protracted war in Ukraine and increasingly dependent on China for supplies, Beijing is rapidly expanding its influence in Central Asia, a region once within the Kremlin’s sphere of influence.
For its part, Russia is reacting strongly.
As leaders of Central Asian countries meet with the presidents of China and Russia this week in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, China’s growing presence in the region is evident. New railways and other infrastructure are being built, while trade and investment are increasing.
Kazakh children waving flags and singing in Chinese welcomed Chinese leader Xi Jinping as he arrived in Astana on Tuesday. He hailed the relationship with Kazakhstan as a friendship that “lasts generations”.
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin arrived on Wednesday to begin collect in Astana, the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and he met with Mr. Xi, according to state news agency Xinhua.
The forum has focused largely on security issues for years. Beijing has dominated the group, and as membership has expanded, China and Russia have used the forum as a platform to showcase their ambitions to reshape the US-dominated global order.
The group, founded by China and Russia in 2001 with the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, has expanded in recent years to include Pakistan, India and Iran.
Even as China expands its economic influence across Central Asia, it faces diplomatic challenges as Russia seeks to tilt the balance of membership in the Shanghai Forum in its favor.
Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko is expected to attend this year’s summit. He is Mr Putin’s closest foreign ally, who relies heavily on Russia’s economic and political support to stay in power. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has speak that Belarus will be recognized as a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization at this year’s summit. That would be a small diplomatic victory for the Kremlin.
A bigger obstacle for Beijing is that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will not attend this year’s summit. Mr Modi plans to visit Moscow next week for separate talks with Mr Putin and will instead send Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar to the Astana summit.
Following Mr Putin’s recent trip to two other of China’s neighbors, North Korea And VietnamMr. Modi’s upcoming trip to Moscow shows that Mr. Putin can still build his own diplomatic relationships separate from Beijing, said Theresa Fallon, director of the Russia-Europe-Asia Center in Brussels.
“He said, ‘I have other options,’” Ms Fallon said.
India joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization at Russia’s request in 2017, while Pakistan also joined at China’s urging. But India’s relationship with China has become cold since then, following border clashes between the two countries’ militaries in 2020 and 2022.
While Mr Modi advocated closer ties when he took office a decade ago, the two countries do not even allow non-stop commercial flights between them.
India is increasingly concerned about the geopolitical balance of power in the region as China’s influence grows and Russia’s declines, said Harsh V. Pant, professor of international relations at King’s College London. China and Russia have also built increasingly friendly ties with Afghanistan’s Taliban government, which has run the country since U.S. troops left in 2021 and has long sided with Pakistan against India.
“Until now, Russia has been the dominant player, and India has been fine with that,” Mr. Pant said. “But as China becomes more economically important and stronger in Central Asia, and Russia becomes a weaker partner, then India’s concerns will increase.”
In broader terms, however, Russia’s participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is largely a defensive move to counterbalance the region’s seemingly inevitable shift toward China. Mr. Putin relies heavily on China to sustain his economy and military production amid Western sanctions, and his government has for years tolerated Beijing’s growing ties with former Soviet republics in Central Asia. The vast gap between Russia’s and Beijing’s economic might makes direct competition in Central Asia futile for the Kremlin.
Instead, the Kremlin has sought to maintain some leverage over its former satellites on issues that remain important to its national interests, including by attending symbolic events like the Astana summit. On Wednesday, Mr. Putin will hold six separate meetings with Asian heads of state in Astana, according to Russian state media.
Russia wants to maintain access to Central Asian markets to avoid Western sanctions. Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has obtained billions of dollars of Western goods using Central Asian intermediaries. This includes consumer goods such as luxury cars, as well as electronic components used in military production.
Russia also relies heavily on millions of Central Asian migrants to support its economy and rebuild occupied areas in Ukraine.
Finally, Russia wants to cooperate with the governments of the predominantly Muslim countries of Central Asia on security, and in particular the threat of terrorism. These threats were exposed earlier this year when a group of Tajik citizens killed 145 people at a Moscow concert hall in the deadliest terrorist attack in Russia in more than a decade. The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack.
Russia and China don’t just compete in Central Asia. They often cooperate, because they see a common interest in having stable regimes in the region with little or no coordination with Western militaries, said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
“They see regional stability as dependent on secular, non-Islamist and to some extent internally repressive dictatorships,” he said.
Beijing also faces deep public concerns in Central Asia that China could use its huge population and migration to overwhelm the sparsely populated region, said William Fierman, a professor emeritus of Central Asian studies at Indiana University. The Soviet Union fanned those suspicions for decades, and even younger generations who did not grow up under Soviet rule now seem to share those concerns, he said.
In Astana, the most sensitive issue may be the war in Ukraine. Few experts expect much public discussion of the war at a forum dominated by Beijing, which indirectly supports Russia’s war effort.
Xi will also use his visit to promote his vision of building better transport links across the region, said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. After the summit, Xi is expected to make a state visit to Tajikistan, where the U.S. State Department recently estimated that more than 99 percent of foreign investment comes from China.
Much of China’s investment in Central Asia is in infrastructure. China signed an agreement with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan last month to build a new railway through both countries. The railway would give China a shortcut for overland trade with Iran, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan, and beyond to the Middle East and Europe. China has been trying to in the past 12 years expanding rail traffic across Russia to transport exports to Europe, but now wants to add a route further south.
“From a long-term strategic perspective, this railway is very important,” said Niva Yau, a nonresident fellow specializing in China’s relations with Central Asia at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank.
Suhasini Raj And Ly Du Contribute reports and research.
