At first, they heard sirens. Then, looking out at the country’s main political square on Wednesday, Bolivia’s top ministers saw armored vehicles and troops pouring out of the doors. A shiver ran down the interior minister’s spine, she later said.
Within moments, the president, Luis Arce, had told his inner circle – “We are facing a coup!” – before heading to the presidential palace to confront, face to face, the general trying to remove him from power.
The coup attempt failed, lasting just three hours, and ended with the arrest of the general, whose motive for the attack appeared to be at least partly anger over his dismissal by Mr. Arce the day before.
But that is not the end of Mr. Arce’s problems or the challenges facing Bolivia.
Mr Arce, 60, a former finance minister, took office in 2020 in a democratic election. seems symbolic a new, more hopeful chapter in a country that has just gone through a period of intense political upheaval.
Now, in addition to his dispute with the former general, Mr. Arce faces a difficult economy, growing protests, criticism over the jailing of political opponents and divisions within his own party.
But perhaps his biggest challenge is the ongoing battle with his one-time mentor, former President Evo Morales, a great figure in Bolivian politics who has since left power — and is now competing with Mr. Arce over who will be their party’s candidate in next year’s presidential election.
Mr Morales, 64, is the first indigenous president in a predominantly indigenous country, a socialist elected in 2006 and a leader in the so-called pink wave of leftist politicians that governed much of South America in the 2000s.
He made history by bringing broad swaths of Bolivian society into politics, but fled the country during a disputed 2019 election and chose Mr Arce as his party’s candidate in new elections to be held in 2020.
In an interview with The New York Times that year, Mr. Arce described Mr. Morales as a “historic figure” in their political movement but said Mr. Morales would have no official role in the government. his government.
At the time, it appeared to be a successful transition of power for Mr. Arce, who served in the Morales administration during years of strong economic growth, fueled by a commodities and The country’s huge natural gas reserves.
But now, after a period of exileGustavo Flores-Macías, a professor of government at Cornell University who focuses on Latin American politics, said Morales “is really determined to return to the presidency.” “He sees himself as having been illegitimately ousted and that he has the right to be a candidate again. And Arce sees it very differently.”
In Bolivia, a landlocked nation of 12 million people, Mr. Morales, Mr. Arce and their supporters have long tried to position the country as a leftist counterweight to American power.
The country could also play a huge role in the fight against climate change thanks to its huge reserves of lithium, which are crucial to the global transition to electric cars.
Wednesday’s coup attempt was led by Juan José Zuñiga, who until Tuesday night was army commander in chief. In an interview, Interior Minister María Nela Prada said that Mr. Arce fired General Zuñiga after he made political statements in a television interviewwhere he stressed that Mr Morales “can no longer be president of this country” and implied that the military would enforce this assertion.
“Zuñiga was President Luis Arce’s trusted man, his most trusted man with the armed forces,” said Reymi Ferreira, a former defense minister. But the general’s dismissal appears to have changed that.
The next day, at around 3 p.m., General Zuñiga appeared in the country’s political square—which houses both the presidential palace and an important government building called the Casa Grande del Pueblo—along with the heads of the navy and air force, as well as scores of soldiers.
Ms Arce and his ministers were in Casa Grande preparing to start a meeting, Ms Prada said, and watched in shock as soldiers took over the square below.
Mr. Arce, wearing a black puffy jacket and glasses, headed toward the presidential palace, where he was confronted by the general in a green uniform and bulletproof vest with Ms. Prada at his side, wearing a phalanx of military police. surround them.
“This is your captain!” Ms. Prada shouted, referring to the president.
“We can’t go back!” shouted one Zuñiga supporter.
Mr. Arce told the general to turn back.
“This is an order, general,” he continued. “Are you going to listen?”
“No,” Mr. Zuñiga replied.
Then came a critical moment, Ms. Prada said. The head of the air force, apparently having second thoughts, decided to withdraw his support for the coup attempt, she explained. The police refused to get involved. And finally, a newly appointed army commander ordered the tanks and troops to withdraw.
At least 12 people were wounded by gunfire in the melee, Ms. Prada said. Seventeen people, including Mr. Zuñiga, are currently in custody. And about 200 military officers were involved in the coup attempt, Bolivia’s ambassador to the Organization of American States said Thursday.
But while Mr. Arce, widely known in the country by his nickname Lucho, has succeeded in preventing a coup, getting Mr. Morales to back down may be even more difficult.
A former leader of the country’s coca growers, Mr. Morales retains some support among voters and members of his party, the Movement for Socialism, or MAS. ONE Recent surveys Nineteen percent of respondents supported Mr. Arce and nine percent supported Mr. Morales.
Mr Arce could legally run for a second term in next year’s elections, which are scheduled for the second half of 2025. But whether Mr Morales can is unclear.
Under Bolivian law, it is illegal to run for more than two consecutive terms. Mr. Morales served three terms as president, successfully lobbying the courts to allow him to run for a third term because of a legal loophole. But when he tried to run for a fourth term, the result was a disputed election and chaos that led to his ouster.
Bolivia’s constitutional court ultimately has the power to decide whether Mr Morales can run for re-election.
Economic problems in the country include fuel shortages, high inflation, and lack of access to the US dollar. They have incited protests led by truck drivers, a constituency that plays a key role in the country’s trade.
In the legislature, a section of Mr. Arce’s party allied with the opposition to block his initiatives. And his critics have blamed him for going after opponents, including the prominent politician, Luis Fernando Camacho, who has been in pretrial detention since December 2022 on charges of sedition. inciting rebellion and terrorism.
Carlos Romero, a former interior minister under Mr Morales, said the relationship between the former president and Mr Arce was now “very bad” and that sowing doubt about the legitimacy of Mr Morales’ candidacy “is part of the political strategy of the government that is determined to get rid of him.”
Mr. Romero said that Wednesday’s coup attempt was “so clumsy and so improvised” that it must have been an “arrangement agreed upon with the national government” — echoing Mr. Zuñiga’s statement shortly before his arrest that the coup plot was a stunt orchestrated by Mr. Arce to make him look like a hero.
Mr. Arce’s government says there is no evidence to support the claim and has denied it.
Carlos Mesa, a former president and leader of the country’s main opposition party, said he believed Mr Arce had tried to benefit politically from the coup attempt “by making himself a victim”.
On Wednesday evening, Mr. Arce appeared on the balcony overlooking the main political square, where hundreds of supporters gathered and declared that they had defeated the country’s “coup plotters”.
“Thank you, Bolivian people!” he shouted.
Then the crowd erupted: “Lucho! Lucho! Lucho!”
Jorge Valencia contributed reporting.
