As Young People Lose Hope, a Reformer Runs for President

A snap election is called after a deadly helicopter crash. A candidate promises a different approach both at home and abroad. And suddenly there is an element of suspense and unpredictability in Iran as voters head to the polls to choose a new president.

Elections in the Islamic Republic are tightly controlled events – all candidates are vetted by an influential clerical committee before they can run. And voter apathy has been widespread recently.

But this time there was an ace up his sleeve: a former heart surgeon and reformist health minister, Massoud Pezeshkian, who has branded the actions of Iran’s morality police, who enforce strict dress codes for women, as “immoral”.

Rules around wearing the headscarf are now routinely flouted by women and Mr Pezeshkian, 69, said: “If wearing certain types of clothing is a sin, then behavior towards women and girls is not. The sin is 100 times greater. Nowhere in religion is there a right to confront someone because of their clothing.”

He also promised to try to improve relations with the West and revive nuclear negotiations, in the hope of ending sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy.

Mr. Pezeshkian has been publicly endorsed by two former reformist presidents, Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami, and a former foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif.

His rallies attracted growing crowds in the run-up to election day.

And on Thursday, two candidates dropped out — an apparent effort by the clergy to avoid splitting the conservative vote.

The most recent opinion polls show Mr. Pezeshkian ahead of Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards who is now speaker of parliament, and Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator according to tough line.

Conservatives oppose cooperation with the West and believe Iran can succeed despite sanctions.

Another candidate is still in the race to replace hardliner Ebrahim Raisi died on a foggy mountainside last month in a helicopter crash That also killed seven others.

Voter turnout figures are seen as a key test of the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy.

They hit record lows in March’s congressional elections and the final presidential election in 2021.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – Iran’s highest authority – has called for “maximum” voter turnout. And a core of regime supporters is certain to vote.

But many young and middle-class Iranians are deeply disappointed and distrustful of any political process organized by the Islamic Republic, and now want an end to 45 years of clerical rule.

“There are a lot of billboards on the streets asking people to ‘vote for a better tomorrow,’ but we don’t buy it anymore,” a 20-year-old student in Tehran told me via text message. “No one wants to vote anymore.”

Since the death of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, in custody of the morality police in 2022 – and the nationwide uprising it sparked – the gap between Iran’s leaders and its people has widened dramatically.

A brutal crackdown on protesters has fueled hatred of the regime, especially among Generation Z.

The hopes placed on reformists in the past have been repeatedly dashed. And over the past few years, those who want to reform the system have become increasingly marginalized.

Former President Hassan Rouhani was not even allowed to run in recent elections for an influential body, the Assembly of Experts, which is tasked with appointing the Supreme Leader.

Many Iranians have lost hope of any meaningful change being made through the ballot box.

“I won’t vote this year,” a 70-year-old woman in Tehran, who has previously voted for reformist candidates, told the BBC. “I know nothing will change. The economy is in terrible shape and a generation of young people now just want to leave Iran.”

Azad (not her real name), a women’s rights activist jailed during the protests, described it as an “election circus”.

“When the puppeteer is someone named Khamenei, it makes no difference which name comes out of the ballot box,” she told me via a social media app. “At the height of the unrest, people repeatedly chanted this slogan in the streets: ‘Reformers, conservatives, the game is over’.”

Some believe that clerical authorities only allowed Mr Pezeshkian to run as part of an effort to boost voter turnout.

Azad described it as a “game” played by the regime. “We don’t trust them and we don’t want to be manipulated again.”

Several people in Tehran with whom I have spoken over the past few days have similar views.

“Voting is a duty but I won’t do it,” one law student told the BBC. “Because all previous elections have shown that no elected president has done anything better for the people.”

But others may be drawn to the polls by the small glimmer of hope for change that Mr. Pezeshkian represents for liberal-minded Iranians.

“I will vote for Pezeshkian,” said Maryam, 54, from Tehran. “I believe that change can only come from within Iran — through reform.”

She liked that he did not come from the security forces and that he was “clean”, with no corruption charges against him.

She also hopes he can improve Iran’s relations with the outside world and believes he will win.

If he does, there will be a big question mark about how far he will be able to get.

“Pezeshkian is a reformer in name only,” said Sanam Vakil of the Chatham House think tank.

“He supports the Islamic Republic and is deeply loyal to the supreme leader. His participation could potentially boost turnout and increase enthusiasm, but one should not expect much more than a difference in tone if he is elected.”