Faced with chaos, a defiant Trudeau continues to hold on

It was one of the worst weeks of his political career, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is starting the season.

At the Liberal Party’s annual holiday gathering, Trudeau showed his partisan face, despite being stunned a day earlier by the sudden resignation of one of his most trusted allies. his closest confidant, Treasury Secretary Chrystia Freeland, just hours before she was scheduled to give an economic report in Washington. National Assembly.

But even as some members of his party were calling for him to leave, the prime minister struck a defiant tone as he addressed party loyalists in a dark blue suit and tie.

He alluded to his “difficult” week, comparing it to a family argument.

He discussed being “bold” and “ambitious” in the face of adversity, and criticized his political opponent, Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada’s opposition Conservative Party.

Experts later commented that it sounded a lot like an election campaign speech and that despite the latest political unrest, Trudeau appeared to be digging into the issue.

That stance did not change on Friday, even after the country’s progressive New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh said he would launch a motion to oust Trudeau’s government in the new year. It was the NDP’s support that kept the Liberals in power. An election appears imminent.

However, Trudeau has so far given no indication that he will step down anytime soon, although he is said to have told party members that he will take time over the winter break to think about what to do. What.

Political observers say Trudeau is often defiant under pressure, which has helped him weather a number of controversies during his nine years in power.

And he is often underestimated, such as when he won a majority government in 2015 at the age of 44, despite being portrayed by his political opponents as a dilettante.

But as pressure grows for him to step down, some experts say he may need a new strategy.

When Trudeau first ran for prime minister, three words stuck with him: Just not ready.

That phrase is the slogan of an attack ad that has been replayed across the country as he tries to oust current Prime Minister Stephen Harper, a Conservative who has been in power since 2004.

It conveys the common criticism he faced at the time about his young age, inexperience, and his winding political path.

Canadian historian Raymond Blake said Trudeau “wandered around” in his early years before becoming a drama teacher in Vancouver, seemingly insulated because he was the famous and wealthy son of former Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau.

But not long after entering politics, Trudeau adopted a militant stance.

It’s a trait some say he picked up from his father, who was known for his charismatic yet aggressive leadership style and who was famous for his “look at me” catchphrase. which he told a reporter at the height of a political career. crisis.

“His father had the image of being a very resilient and tough politician,” said Lawrence Martin, a longtime Canadian political journalist based in Washington DC.

The young Trudeau continued to defy all odds by winning a historic victory for his Liberal party, taking them from third place in parliament to a majority in his first federal election.

“This makes him feel like he can overcome big obstacles,” Mr. Martin said, adding that politically, Trudeau operates with “tremendous confidence.”

Trudeau’s road to power became bumpy when he took office, after he was embroiled in several political scandals.

During her first term, Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould – the first Indigenous woman to hold the position – resigned over what she described as an attempt to interfere and “cover up a threat.” ” from top government officials to seek legal support for a company facing a corruption trial. .

As he ran for a second term in 2019, Trudeau’s re-election campaign was rocked by published images showing him as a young man with brown face at least three times.

And a year later, in 2020, Trudeau faced another ethics scandal involving a potentially large government contract for a youth charity that worked with Trudeau family member.

But despite all the setbacks, Trudeau still holds on to power. He was re-elected twice, becoming the longest-serving leader among his G7 colleagues.

“Trudeau survived a lot,” Professor Blake said, noting that his political successes and leadership won the loyalty of many in his party despite scandals.

Although Trudeau has weathered many storms, there are signs that his time may be running out.

First, history is not on his side. Only one Canadian prime minister, Sir John A MacDonald – the country’s first – has served four consecutive terms.

Trudeau is also working to combat distrust. A September Ipsos poll found about two-thirds of Canadians disapproved of him. Just 26% of respondents said Trudeau was their top choice for prime minister, putting him 19 points behind Conservative Party leader Poilievre.

And then there’s Trudeau’s waning support within his own party. So far, at least 18 Liberal MPs have called for their leader to resign.

“He is delusional if he thinks we can continue like this,” New Brunswick MP Wayne Long told reporters this week.

“It’s not fair to us parliamentarians, it’s not fair to our ministers and most importantly it’s not fair to the country. We need to continue with a new direction and need to restart.”

According to Long, who drove the effort to remove Trudeau, up to 50 of the 153 Liberal MPs want him to resign immediately. There are about the same number of Trudeau loyalists, he said, and the rest are on the fence.

“There are still some party loyalists who like him and, you know, still want to support him,” Mr. Martin said. columnist based in DC. “But if you had a secret vote in the Liberal caucus on whether he should stay or not, he would be easily defeated.”

Mr. Martin commented: The Prime Minister also seemed to be pushed to stay because of his disdain for political opponent Poilievre.

“He doesn’t want to back down and he wants to confront Pierre Poilievre, who he hates,” he said.

Trudeau’s stubborn persistence in the face of gloomy political forecasts has drawn comparisons to outgoing US President Joe Biden, who abandoned his candidacy months before the November election only after increasing internal pressure. set.

Professor Blake says Trudeau’s legacy, like Biden’s, will depend on how he exits. Fighting a losing battle, he said, could give Trudeau “a lasting scar.” However, he noted that the prime minister has outstanding survivability.

“He’s a survivor, and he didn’t do the normal thing. Is the normal thing – whatever that is – true this time? Maybe so, but I’m not convinced.”

Trudeau’s dilemma is similar to that faced by his father, who won three consecutive elections and won a fourth less than a year after leaving power. .

But by 1984, more than 15 years after first becoming prime minister, Mr. Trudeau — like his son now — faced fierce polls. It seems clear that he will not win the next election if he stays on. He decided to resign, telling the public he made the decision after going for a walk in a snowstorm in Ottawa.

Since then, the term “snowshoeing” has become synonymous with political resignation in Canada. This Christmas, it remains to be seen whether Trudeau will step out on his own.